You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Summer
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-video-update-may-set-to-open-warmer-than-average/
Apr 15
Evening Video Update On Thursday’s Storm Threat; Heavy Rain Potential To Open Easter Weekend…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-video-update-on-thursdays-storm-threat-heavy-rain-potential-to-open-easter-weekend/
Apr 11
Wet And Active Pattern On Deck…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-and-active-pattern-on-deck/
Apr 10
Strong Storms Thursday Night; Early Summer Ideas…
The daytime Thursday will be dominated by a summer-like feel as highs approach the 80 degree mark, along with an increasingly gusty SW wind ahead of an approaching cold front. We’ll stay dry through the day and it’s not until we get to the overnight hours when storm chances will begin to increase.
More specifically, we think the hours between 12a and 5a will offer up the best chance of a slow moving line of storms to track across central Indiana. A couple of these storms could produce damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with widespread amounts of 0.50″ to 1″ with a few 1″+ totals likely by the time we get to sunrise Friday. The rain will be well to our east by lunchtime Friday and a dry close to the day is on tap.
On the heels of this storm will come another wet weather maker Saturday night and Sunday and tomorrow morning’s video update will have more details around timing and rainfall amounts with that system.
Early Summer Ideas
I. Weak El Nino anticipated to persist through the Summer of 2019.
II. Warm SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast Coast.
We’ll have our complete official Summer Outlook posted during the first week of May, but wanted to share our early thoughts. Overall, a warmer than average summer is expected with average to slightly above normal rainfall, locally.
The warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) raise concern for the potential of well above average precipitation across the Southeast and MidAtlantic regions. Additionally, those warm water conditions also mean we’ll need to keep close eyes on the potential of tropical activity early on in the season in the Gulf or off the SE coastline.
Much more next month, including graphics!
Talk with you bright and early in the AM!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/strong-storms-thursday-night-early-summer-ideas/
Feb 16
2019 Spring Outlook…
2019 IndyWx.com Spring Outlook
Forecaster: Team; Date Issued: 02.16.19
Last spring was a tale of two seasons in itself. March (featured a foot of snow) and April were significantly colder than normal and then we shifted things to summer in May (the last month of meteorological spring was close to 10 degrees above normal). As a whole, it was a quiet severe weather season.
Despite the wild swings, at the end of the day, things “balanced out” nicely across the central Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
As we look ahead to what the 2019 version holds, here are a few headlines that have our attention:
I. Weak Nino is behaving more like a Nina (Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern can be thanked for this).
II. Neutral NAO is expected
III. Neutral PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
In addition, we’re paying special attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. A warmer than average GOM can most certainly lead to a more “hyper” severe weather season as spring gets going.
The late winter/ early spring drought monitor can give a hint where early warmth may try and get going. However, this year, we can’t rely on this tool as the Plains and East, including the heart of the #AGbelt, have seen copious amounts of moisture over the winter.
Let’s look at what the model guidance is printing out for meteorological spring:
JMA
CFSv2
JAMSTEC
European Seasonal
Summary
We anticipate a slightly warmer than average spring season across not only central Indiana, but the Mid West and Ohio Valley region, as a whole. A weak El Nino is expected to persist into the upcoming summer and the conditions typically associated with such should eventually show themselves (as opposed to more of a Nina-like flavor now) through the spring. We agree with the consensus of model guidance above that March is likely to feature the coldest temperatures, relative to normal, and that’s primarily due to what should be a colder 1st half of the month before more bonafide spring conditions take hold the 2nd half of the month. Precipitation is anticipated to run near average, if not slightly below average, levels through the spring. As for severe weather, we expect a much busier season than last year, especially with the warm SSTs lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019-spring-outlook/