Category: Summer
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Fog, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
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August 6, 2014
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Watching Storms To Our Northwest…Fog is locally dense in many communities across central Indiana this morning and it’ll take a couple hours to burn off. Plan for extra drive time on your way to work and school. Once the fog burns off we’ll look at mostly cloudy skies today along with the chance of showers this afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms is off to our northwest this morning and the general track will take this complex of showers and storms into our general area later this afternoon in a weakened form. Not everyone will get wet, but rain chances will be around this afternoon and evening.
Friday Battle…Forecast models continue to struggle with exact heavy rain placement Thursday night into Friday, mainly due to how they handle an area of high pressure to our north. Thinking here continues to suggest we’re under the gun for a rather rainy Friday, but must maintain this is a lower than normal confidence forecast. Central and southern Indiana appears most at risk for locally heavy rainfall, including some 2″ totals somewhere in the aforementioned region. Widespread 0.75″-1.25″ amounts remain a good bet.
Increasing Sunshine This Weekend…Sunshine will be welcome after a rather gloomy work week. We forecast high pressure to build in and supply partly cloudy and pleasant conditions this weekend before rain chances return early next week.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
We’ll keep an eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest this morning. Forecast high resolution data points to this arriving into central Indiana in a weakened form this afternoon.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/06/mostly-cloudy-with-afternoon-shower-chance/
This afternoon’s video update takes a closer look at what continues to appear to be a rather cool, rainy close to the work week. Widespread soaking rains and temperatures that remain in the 60s Friday are very possible for some portions of our area.
The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday’s forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/tuesday-afternoon-video-update-closer-look-at-friday/
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Cold Front Just North…A cold front will slowly sag south into central Indiana over the next 24 hours before stalling nearby. Some added energy will rotate along the boundary Wednesday and lead to somewhat more widespread coverage of thunderstorms across the region (scattered to numerous coverage). As far as today- look for more of those splash and dash afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, including some locally heavy downpours.
Best Rain Chances Friday? Model data continues to trend towards better chances of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall Friday in response to an area of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary. It’s important to note that there’s still some disagreement among forecast model solutions, but we feel increasingly confident on Friday offering up more in the way of widespread rains in response to this area of low pressure.
Drying Out This Weekend…High pressure will build into the region over the weekend supply drier air and increased sunshine. Perfect timing, heh?!
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.75″-1.25″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Before we enjoy a dry weekend, most model data is focusing on Friday for the best chances of widespread rainfall. This is in response to an area of low pressure moving along the tail end of a cold front.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/turning-more-unsettled/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms
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August 4, 2014
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Dry Start To The Week…High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and supply lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.
Rain Chances Increasing…A cold front will drop closer to the region Tuesday and will help to serve as the trigger in widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. Mid week is where our questions lie and they have to do with just how far the front makes it before stalling. A combination of the GFS, European, and Canadian forecast models shows a variety of results. The European is most progressive and dries the region out quickly mid week with high pressure building into the area. The Canadian is the exact opposite as it paints a wide swath of heavy rain through the heart of the state (2″ type rains through late week). Finally, the GFS is in between the two. We think the GFS has the best idea as of now, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the next couple days. Stay tuned.
Pleasant Weekend…We’re confident on a weekend that should feature beautiful late-summer weather conditions- lots of sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and low humidity!
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Forecast radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday. This is just the beginning of an unsettled few days ahead mid week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/04/mid-and-late-week-questions/
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Filed under European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Hail, Heavy Rain, JAMSTEC, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Winter thoughts...
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August 2, 2014
Happy Saturday! Upper level energy will hang around the region today, creating a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Similar to Friday, a few of these could be strong…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/02/saturday-morning-rambles-3/
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Upper Level Disturbance…An upper level disturbance will help lead to better coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and again Saturday. While everyone won’t get wet, more neighborhoods can expect to see a passing storm than the past couple of days. Temperatures will remain below seasonal levels.
Drying Out And Warming Up…We’ll build a drier and warmer picture into your forecast for the back half of the weekend on into the first half of the new work week. High pressure should supply a partly cloudy sky and while temperatures will moderate from the cool readings of late, they certainly won’t be too hot for early August. All-in-all, very comfortable readings can be expected with lots of sunshine.
Watching A Potential Late Week Storm…Forecast model guidance is a bit inconsistent at this time period, but we’re still eyeing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms towards the end of next week. More details to come as we move forward.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Upper level energy will move overhead late today and Saturday and help lead to better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/01/unsettled-1st-half-of-the-weekend/
The following information was written by the fine folks over at the Indianapolis National Weather Service office. July 2014 was coolest on record at Indianapolis. July 2014 Climate Summary –…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/01/nws-indianapolis-july-2014-coolest-on-record/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
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July 31, 2014
Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. 58/ 80 60/ 81 60/ 81 59/ 82 62/ 84 63/ 86 66/ 87 …
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/31/focusing-on-saturday/
Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. 56/ 77 55/ 79 58/ 81 58/ 81 58/ 81 56/ 83 57/ 85 0.05″-0.10″ 0.05″-0.10″…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/30/continued-cooler-than-normal-pm-showers/
Tonight’s video update takes a closer look at rain and embedded storm chances over the course of this evening and again Wednesday. Additionally, we look more in-depth at the mid…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/29/tuesday-evening-video-update-cooler-than-normal-pattern-continues/
