Oct 15
Updated 10.15.24 @ 4:45a In case you missed it a couple of weeks ago, our annual Winter Outlook can be found here. We wanted to recap some highlights of that…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/10/15/video-the-24-25-winter-outlook/
Apr 12
Updated 04.12.24 @ 7:48a Today will certainly be another less than ideal weather day across central Indiana, but the trade off for what awaits Saturday will be worth it. You’ve…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/12/video-mother-nature-is-making-us-earn-it-saturday-long-range-pattern-remains-active-stormy/
Feb 10
Updated 02.10.24 @ 7:20a
Though we still have a few weeks left of meteorological winter, spring and the #Plant24 season will be here before we know it! The headlines that we anticipate to claim the coming months include the following:
Long range, seasonal forecast models, continue to show the current El Niño collapsing and moving swiftly towards a La Niña late spring and early summer.
This transition will certainly have impacts on the anticipated precipitation and potential of a busier severe weather season this spring. We forecast a rather swift Nino collapse and subsequent onset of La Niña, which ups the ante for a wet spring, not only locally, but across a widespread chunk of the country. Undoubtedly, this could lead to plant24 impacts (delays) at times.
Seasonal products see the above average rain expected for spring 24.
From a temperature perspective, we forecast widespread milder than normal temperatures as a whole for the season across the northern tier, including central Indiana. We caution though that the way we get to slightly (1° to 2° above normal on the season) milder overall may include wild swings through the season. For example, we forecast a colder than normal 1st half of March, the potential of a significant flip to warmer the 2nd half and a cooler pattern to return for the bulk of April.
IndyWx.com Spring/ #Plant24 Outlook for central Indiana:
Wishing the best of luck and positive vibes to all in the months ahead, especially our #AGwx partners. Happy spring!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/10/spring-plant24-outlook/
Feb 05
Updated 02.05.24 @ 6p Potential is on the increase for a period of notable cold during late-February. We look into this along with the staying power, and early thoughts on…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/05/video-potential-of-significant-period-of-cold-plant24-pattern-thoughts/
Feb 03
Updated 02.03.24 @ 10:12a The calm weather pattern that we’ll enjoy this weekend is giving us time to look ahead to a significant pattern transition to La Nina and the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/03/video-all-is-quiet-for-now-initial-spring-and-summer-ideas-as-we-head-to-la-nina/
Nov 24
Updated 11.24.23 @ 8:32p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/24/long-range-update-interesting-times/
Nov 21
Updated 11.21.23 @ 7:30p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/21/evening-video-update-the-trend-is-your-friend-winter-fans/
Nov 09
Updated 11.09.23 @ 10:49a
With Thanksgiving only 2 weeks from today (incredibly hard to believe), we’re able to start to get a better idea on the overall weather pattern as the “official” kickoff to the holiday season nears. The first point we want to drive home is that we should begin to see a much more active regime evolve during this 2 week period. From a temperature perspective, the pattern overall continues to look milder than average, but there will be a couple opportunities for transient pops of colder air, potentially around the all-important Thanksgiving holiday, itself.
Note how modeling sees the more active pattern evolving over the next 3-4 weeks (green represents above normal precipitation). – A significant change not only for our neck of the woods but certainly for our friends and neighbors down south (badly needed for a region suffering an expanding drought. Speaking of which, all of the dry/ droughty southern tier should reverse in significant fashion as the active Nino storm track gets going over the coming months. As the pattern continues to evolve into the ‘24 spring and summer, the south-central severe drought will be erased.
Despite attempts of troughs to roll into the Ohio Valley, they will struggle with staying power over the next 3-4 weeks. The latest JMA Weekly product and Euro/ GFS ensemble blend looks very solid given where the pattern drivers currently reside.
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4
The pattern drivers of a primarily positive EPO, negative PNA, and MJO in 8/1 (all unchanged from our post earlier this week) all suggest a predominant eastern ridge, western trough placement over the upcoming 2-3 weeks.
We’ll continue to keep close tabs on the regime, especially centered on 11/22 – 11/26.
Make it a great Thursday!
Side note: Confidence is increasing that this Nino will evolve into a central-based event which will up the chances of colder/ snowier prospects come late December and on into January. More on that later next week in a more extensive update specific to this transition.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/09/lr-update-thanksgiving-and-early-december/
Sep 07
Updated 09.07.23 @ 7:15a
September has opened significantly warmer than normal across the northern Plains and to a lesser extent into the southern Plains and along the northern tier. Indianapolis is running 5° above average through the 6th. We’ll chip away some at those toasty anomalies over the course of the next week, but still anticipate the month finishing slightly warmer than normal as a whole. We’re also running dry- more than half an inch below normal to open the month.
As we look ahead to the upcoming couple of weeks, the combination of the Madden Julian Oscillation sneaking into Phase 4, combined with a strongly positive PNA should help lead to more of a trough across the eastern portion of the country.
The NEW JMA Weeklies show that trough and associated cooler pattern (not cold by any means, but instead slightly below normal overall) taking up shop in the Week 1 and Week 2 time period below.
The latest ensemble guidance is also on board with the more seasonal look, especially compared to how the month opened.
Overall, the dry start to the month is anticipated to persist through the remainder of September as a whole.
Jumping ahead, the JMA seasonal data also updated today. In short, the model shows a warm fall giving way to a warm start to the winter before potentially taking a colder mid and late winter turn. Still far too early to put much stock in the specifics from this distance. The next couple of months will be very telling with the migration (or lack thereof) of warmest central PAC sea surface temperatures along with modeled trends deeper into the winter. Long ways to go; stay tuned…
JMA meteorological (Dec. through Feb.) winter idea:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/07/long-range-chatter-new-jma-data-on-winter/
Sep 04
Updated 09.04.23 @ 8:58a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/04/video-23-24-snow-nugget-rain-chances-return-tuesday-into-wednesday/