Category: Spring

Timing Out Strong Storm Potential; Blast Of Unseasonably Cool Air On Deck…

Updated 05.03.21 @ 7:29a

Light rain is currently falling across most of central Indiana. That will end by late morning to early afternoon (west to east) and we’ll then likely get several dry hours into the evening. By this time, all eyes will be focused to our west as a line of storms is expected to erupt across MO and IL by late afternoon. It’s this line of storms that will potentially impact Indiana towards late evening.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has nudged southwestern Indiana into an “Enhanced Risk” of severe weather today. A good chunk of the remainder of the state is under a “Slight Risk.” Damaging winds are the greatest concern within the aforementioned potential line of storms later this evening.

Unsettled weather will remain in place Tuesday, including the opportunity for additional rain Tuesday evening/ night.

Most area rain gauges should pick up between 0.75″ and 1″ of rain by Wednesday morning, but there will be locally heavier totals for communities that find themselves under stronger storms.

Dry weather will be hard to come by in the week ahead. We’ll get a brief break in the action Wednesday, but upper level energy will spark additional shower chances by Thursday. Unfortunately, Mother’s Day weekend looks quite unsettled, including additional opportunities for rain into early next week.

If that’s not enough, temperatures will also shift to a much cooler than normal feel for the 2nd half of the week (highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s). Don’t put those jackets away just yet…

We’ll be back later this afternoon with a fresh look at tonight’s storm threat.

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VIDEO: Keeping An Eye On Storm Potential Monday Night; Cooler Trends Continue Late Week…

Updated 05.02.21 @ 7:20a

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VIDEO: Pleasant Open To The Weekend; Don’t Put Those Jackets Away…

Updated 04.30.21 @ 7:41a

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Long Range Update: Wetter May Trends And MJO Influence…

Updated: 04.29.21 @ 7:42a

Before we dig into some of the wetter trends being shown on the majority of forecast models, let’s review the basis of the medium to longer range forecast through the 1st half of May.

We’ll start with the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). This is forecast to be quite amplified into May, swinging through Phases 1, 2, and 3. These are cooler than normal phases this time of year. Phases 2 and especially 3 are wet.

The 2 primary teleconnections we lean on this time of year include the EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) and PNA (Pacific North American pattern). While we still keep close tabs on the NAO, the influence it has begins to wane compared to late winter into mid spring. In any event, the EPO is largely forecast positive (a warm signal) while the PNA is forecast negative (also a warm signal).

Let’s dig into the data. As it’s Thursday, we’ll start by taking a look at the new JMA Weeklies. Wetter than normal with seasonal temperatures sum up the upcoming 3-4 weeks.

The CFSv2 Weeklies show a wet, cool (compared to normal) theme for our neck of the woods. Warmth is constant across the Southeast.

The GEFS and EPS are in relatively good agreement as we look at the upcoming couple of weeks. Both show a wetter than normal pattern from TX into the Northeast, including the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

The GEFS is trending significantly cooler in the Week 2 timeframe and given where the MJO is heading, it wouldn’t surprise us if other models cool from where they currently are during this time period.

While the EPS is trending cooler Week 2, it’s not nearly to the magnitude of what the GEFS shows above.

Given the pattern drivers discussed to start, we should enter a rather active weather pattern into the 1st couple weeks of May. While these are likely to be fast moving storm systems (usually not depositing excessive rainfall amounts), the frequency of the systems will likely add up over time (above normal rainfall). The wetter trends depicted on the modeling are hard to ignore. I would also keep close tabs on that Week 2 timeframe for the potential of cooler trends to show up and feel the GEFS is doing the best job from this distance.

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VIDEO: Stormy At Times Through Thursday; Sunshine Returns Along With Cooler Air To Close The Week…

Updated 04.28.21 @ 7:45a

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