You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Spring
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/14/touching-base-on-thursday-evening/
May 13
One More Pleasant Day Before Warmth And Humidity Increases…
Highlights:
- Another chilly start
- Warmth and humidity on the uptick heading into the weekend
- More dry hours than wet this weekend
- Much cooler next week
We’ll enjoy one more beautiful day Thursday, though we’ll note an increase in afternoon cloudiness. While a shower will be possible Thursday evening (courtesy of a warm front passing through the region), it won’t amount to much as dry air will “eat away” at what will look like a rather impressive surge of moisture to our west Thursday morning. Once the warm front blows through tomorrow night, a much more humid and unseasonably warm air mass will engulf the region to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.
A widely scattered storm will be possible, but there will be many more dry hours than wet. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday night/ Monday as a cold front presses through the region. Total rainfall potential between this weekend and Monday looks to fall in the half inch to one inch range for most. A much cooler and drier air mass returns next week (even cooler than this current air mass).
A light shower will be possible Thursday evening as a warm front lifts through the region.
Warmth and humidity will be on the uptick Friday and continue through the weekend. Prepare to sweat as dew points approach 70 degrees this weekend.
Most widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday evening into Monday, courtesy of a cold front passing through the region.
A MUCH cooler air mass will settle into the Mid West region next week. In fact, next week’s chill looks more impressive than our current cool air mass- both from a duration perspective and absolute temperature.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/13/one-more-pleasant-day-before-warmth-and-humidity-increases/
May 11
A Much Cooler, Drier Trend…
Highlights:
- Much cooler and drier through Thursday
- Moisture increases this weekend
- Stormy early next week
A cold front swept through the state this evening and a much drier and cooler brand of air is filtering into IN as we type this. That cooler and drier regime will carry us into late week before moisture slowly begins to return. High pressure will shift east and allow a moist return flow Friday into the weekend. Add in a couple of disturbances and the associated forcing, combined with the increasing warmth and humidity, and the stage is set for periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. It certainly won’t rain the entire time, but plan on localized heavy downpours.
A MUCH cooler air mass will greet Hoosiers out the door Tuesday morning. Even cooler air will be with us Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine and cooler than normal air through mid week.
A southwesterly return flow will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across not only our local area, but across a widespread portion of the Plains and Ohio Valley. Furthermore, a significant severe weather outbreak appears to be a good bet across the Plains.
After a dry mid week stretch, active times return over the weekend into early next week. Localized torrential downpours are likely. Most of the 1″ to 2″ of rain forecast shown above (courtesy of the GEM model off the Weatherbell.com suite) is expected to fall early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/11/a-much-cooler-drier-trend/
May 10
Sunday Morning Thoughts…
First and foremost, here’s wishing a very happy Mother’s Day to all of the moms out there! May has gotten off to a much warmer and drier than normal start. …
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/10/sunday-morning-thoughts/
May 09
Lots Of Dry Time This Weekend, But Scattered Storms Will Be Around…
Highlights:
- More dry time than not this weekend
- Strong storm potential Monday
- Cooler and much drier air moves in Monday night
The region remains in a very warm and moist air mass this weekend and this could help promote a scattered shower or thunderstorm really at any point over the next couple of days. That said, best concentration of rain and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours. All-in-all, the weekend will feature many more dry hours than not. A final push of showers and thunderstorms will blow through Monday and some of these could reach strong to severe levels. We’ll keep a close eye out. A much cooler and drier air mass arrives Monday night and that will carry us through Thursday.
Most of today will be dry, but forecast radar (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) suggests showers and thunderstorms build into central IN this afternoon and evening. Plan on taking rain gear with you if you have outdoor plans and have a means of getting inside should a storm be nearby.
The SPC has highlighted a large portion of the Ohio Valley for the threat of severe weather Monday. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be of greatest concern at this time. While this doesn’t look like a significant widespread severe weather outbreak for our immediate region, let’s remember it only takes one severe storm impacting a community to be significant in that particular neighborhood.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/09/lots-of-dry-time-this-weekend-but-scattered-storms-will-be-around/
May 08
Friday Morning Rambles…
May has gotten off to a warm (dare I say hot?) start. The past couple days have felt more like July than May with mid to upper 80s commonplace.…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/08/friday-morning-rambles/
May 06
Summer-like Turns Much Cooler Next Week; Storms In Between…
Highlights:
- Feeling like summer
- Storm chances ramp up going into the weekend
- Best chances of widespread rain arrives Monday
- Much cooler next week
As we get set to put a wrap on another busy work week, near record warmth is the big weather story. Those unseasonably warm conditions we’ve dealt with over the past few days will continue into the weekend, but we’ll also add rain and storm chances. Coverage of thunderstorms will be categorized as “isolated” Friday, “scattered” Saturday and Sunday, and “widespread” Monday. As moisture continues to surge into the region, locally heavy downpours can be expected, and a downright muggy feel. A severe storm is certainly possible, but the more widespread severe outbreak will remain to our west across the central Plains region. Much cooler air will pour into the region behind a Monday night frontal passage.
As we type this (around 10p Wednesday evening), temperatures are still in the middle 70s and a whopping 15-20 degrees above average this hour across the area.
Think it’s humid now? Just wait until the weekend. A strong southwest flow will pull moisture-rich air northward, courtesy of a Gulf of Mexico connection. Dew points will approach 70 degrees across many southern and central IN communities and help fuel locally heavy rainfall with any storm that develops Friday night through Monday.
A MUCH cooler air mass will filter into the region behind the cold frontal passage Monday night/ early Tuesday. After a week of summer-like heat, upper 50s for highs will feel downright chilly.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/06/summer-like-turns-much-cooler-next-week-storms-in-between/
May 04
Monday Evening Catch Up…
It’s been a very busy day and I apologize for the late post. Storms this evening reached severe limits north of the city. In particular, Boone County was hard hit,…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/04/monday-evening-catch-up/
May 03
Warm Temperatures & Increasing Humidity…
Highlights:
- Widely scattered storms Monday
- Very warm with increasing humidity this week
- Weekend storms
Forecast radar (above), courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows showers and thunderstorms pressing into the state early Monday morning. This is all part of a frontal boundary that will slip into northern IN Monday before stalling through the mid week stretch. Most widespread coverage of showers and storms will be confined to northern portions of the state, but we’ll also include a mention of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for central IN Monday. Traveling north this week? Plan on better rain chances as compared to that we’ll see.
The majority of the upcoming work week will feature dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. A prolonged southerly and southwesterly air flow will provide an increasingly muggy feel to the air this week.
Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will roll in over the weekend thanks to an approaching storm system.
The majority of our mid to long range forecast data suggests the warm pattern we’ve enjoyed to kick off May will continue deep into the month. Ensemble guidance (above) shows a snap shot of temperature anomalies through the 19th of May. As you can see, temperatures will be significantly above normal through the first ten days, or so, of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/03/warm-temperatures-increasing-humidity/
Apr 29
Cool And Showery Thursday; Full-Blown Spring Warmth Ahead!
Highlights:
- Scattered showers; unseasonably cool today
- Brighter; warmer days ahead
- Questions next week in regards to rain/ storm potential
A vigorous upper level low will pivot through the Ohio Valley Thursday. This will provide the threat of a shower really at any point through the day. Unseasonably cool air and a gusty wind will also be in place. This will be a brief set back from what, otherwise, is a full-blown burst into spring/ early summer type weather over the weekend into next week.
We’ll keep a very close eye on the placement of a ridge to our southeast early next week as this will mean the difference between a mostly dry and warmer pattern and one that could, potentially, be periodically stormy. As things stand now, models are trending drier, with the so-called “ring of fire” pattern placed just north of central Indiana. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
Simulated radar (above) shows scattered showers dotting the region Thursday, thanks to a potent upper low moving through the Ohio Valley. Unseasonably chilly air (forecast highs in the mid/ upper 50s shown below) and gusty winds will also accompany this system. Rainfall amounts will be light for most and generally under one tenth of an inch.
Our weather early next week will largely depend on the strength and placement of a ridge of high pressure centered over the southeast region. Models today have trended drier for our immediate region and, as such, we’ll follow suit with our forecast above. That said, we note models can struggle with the precise details of these patterns in the mid range and things could trend back towards the direction of stormier times. Stay tuned.
Regardless of storm chances next week, temperatures will be drastically warmer than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple weeks. Ensembles (below) show the warmer than average pattern engulfing the region and a large portion of the Ohio Valley and Mid West.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/29/cool-and-showery-thursday-full-blown-spring-warmth-ahead/