Category: Spring

Apr 28

Thursday “Bump In The Road” En-route To A Warmer Regime…

Screen Shot 2015-04-28 at 9.50.15 PMHighlights:

  • Increasing late day clouds and Thursday showers
  • Warmer days going into the weekend and early next week
  • Stormy at times early next week

Wednesday will get off to a chilly start, but we’ll be several degrees warmer than recent mornings.  We should see enough sunshine to help boost temperatures into the lower to middle 60s before clouds increase and thicken by evening.  This is in association with an upper level low that will track over the region Thursday.  This UL will serve up scattered showers Thursday (0.10″ – 0.25″ rain potential in spots) and it’ll be another unseasonably cool day.

Brighter days are ahead as we progress into the weekend with increasing sunshine Friday and continuing Saturday.

Moisture will increase Sunday into Monday as our wind flow backs around to the southwest. This will pull increasing moisture into the Ohio Valley and we’ll watch for a couple of disturbances to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The big story next week will be a much warmer pattern.

1After a dry Wednesday, forecast radar (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) shows showers building into central IN Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  It won’t rain the entire day Thursday, but scattered showers will dot the landscape at times.  As mentioned above, rainfall totals will be light.  It’ll be a cool day (mid to upper 50s for highs as shown below) with showers, clouds, and a gusty north wind in play.

2Our air flow will back to the southwest and help transport a more humid brand of air into the region early next week.  This warmer, moist air mass will likely be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

3

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Apr 27

Warmer Days Coming, But Cool Continues In The Short Term…

Screen Shot 2015-04-27 at 10.18.12 PMHighlights:

  • Cool weather continues through mid week
  • Upper low spawns shower chance Wednesday-Thursday
  • Dry, warmer close to the week
  • Much warmer and more humid early next week with storm chances

1After a cool open to the work week, the next couple of days will continue a similar theme.  We’ll enjoy more sunshine Tuesday when compared to Monday afternoon and temperatures should be a degree or two warmer.

Attention will shift to a potent upper level area of low pressure dropping across the region in the mid week time period.  This will do two things of note- provide reinforcing cool air and help create a scattered shower chance in the Wednesday-Thursday time period. (Scattered 0.10″ to 0.25″ rainfall amounts).

Weather conditions will begin to relax as we put a wrap on the work week.  Expect increasing sunshine and a much warmer pattern.

Warmth and humidity will continue to build early next week and help add fuel to storm potential.

2It’s a rather anomalous look to the 500mb (upper air pattern) charts for mid week, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.  A potent upper level low will dive southeast across the region and help spawn a shower chance, along with provide a much cooler feel of things Wednesday night into Thursday.  Surface low pressure will develop along the SE coast (in response to the UL energy diving southeast) that will provide a windy/ rainy end to the week across coastal regions down east.

3Warmer days are ahead, and more humid days, as well.  Our wind flow will back to the southwest late in the weekend and early next week.  Temperatures will respond, but so will humidity levels.  Throw in a little energy and you have the makings for stormy times to open up next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warmer-days-coming-but-cool-continues-in-the-short-term/

Apr 26

Warm May On The Way?

As our attention shifts to May, we wanted to share some of our thoughts on the upcoming month. Due to licensing issues, we’re not allowed to share all of the forecast models that we look at here with you, but did want to give you an idea of some of the data we’re looking at.

The month is likely to open up with an anomalous pattern in place, including one that will support a rather significant coastal storm along the SE coast.  That said, as we progress a bit deeper into the month, guidance suggests a much warmer pattern awaits for those locally across the Ohio Valley and Mid West.

Using a combination of model guidance, here’s an idea of what we’re projecting the upper air pattern to look like as we open the month and progress into the middle of the month.

May1

May10th

As a whole, the majority of forecast data, including analogs of weak El Nino events of the past would imply a warmer than normal May is on the way.  Note the warmer anomalies across the mid South and Ohio Valley region.

Screen Shot 2015-04-26 at 9.23.21 AM

 

 

 

 

 

The CFSv2 also is in agreement with the warm idea for May.  Areas where cooler air will be more likely?  The SW and northern tier regions.


Precipitation for April has been running above normal across our region and across the southeast, as a whole.  This is a good sign if you don’t like exceptionally hot and dry summers.  Precipitation this time of year can set the tone for both as we move into the summer months ahead.

  

For the month of May, we anticipate near normal precipitation (right around 5″), but stress that precipitation isn’t always uniform this time of year as thunderstorms can dump locally heavier totals.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warm-may-on-the-way/

Apr 25

Wet Today; Much Better Sunday!

Screen Shot 2015-04-25 at 9.33.34 AMHighlights:

  • Wet, at times, today
  • Increasing Sunday sunshine
  • Small rain chance mid week
  • Warming trend late week

SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANIThis morning’s water vapor loop, courtesy of Weathertap.com, shows low pressure and the associated “big spin” over the mid section.  This will continue to slowly track east, southeast as we go through today and will provide the chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms at any point today into the evening hours.  Severe weather is possible across southern IN on south into KY and TN.  Heads up if your travels take you that direction today and have a way to get the latest weather information.  A much brighter Sunday is ahead and this will set the stage for a calmer week overall when compared to this past week.

hires_ref_indy_11Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows heavier and more widespread rains lifting into the region early this afternoon.  Today’s rainfall totals, however, don’t look as heavy as what was expected earlier this week.  Now we’re thinking most will fall in the 0.50″ range, with locally heavier totals under spots that see a thunderstorm.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-today-much-better-sunday/

Apr 24

Wet Saturday Coming…

After another frost and freeze across central Indiana this morning, attention begins to shift to wet times ahead Saturday. Most of today will be rain-free and feature sunshine, but this…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-saturday-coming/