Category: Spring Tease

Feb 06

Tuesday Morning Rambles: Opportunity For Cross Polar Flow Late Month And Looking Ahead To A Renewed Active Pattern…

Updated 02.06.24 @ 5:27a

We’re pushing 6 days now since our last measurable precipitation and that unusually calm, boring stretch of weather will continue for a couple more days. Despite some low clouds at times, expect our quiet and unseasonably mild weather pattern to continue. A late week frontal passage (FROPA) will pull a true taste of spring north into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. We still don’t anticipate this being a significant precipitation maker for central Indiana.

A secondary (much stronger) low pressure system will ride along this pressing boundary and impact areas to our east (and south) with heavier precipitation over the weekend into early next week. The southern Appalachians once again may “cash in” on a hefty snow event.

This more active period comes as a wholesale pattern change gets underway with a significantly colder air mass aimed to overwhelm much of the Lower 48 as we push into next week.


We note longer range models showing cross polar flow setting up late February. To no surprise, the ante is upped for the threat of a period of significant cold prior to month’s end.

We’ll watch for the threat of new winter weather opportunities to emerge during this colder pattern down the road.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-morning-rambles-opportunity-for-cross-polar-flow-late-month-and-looking-ahead-to-a-renewed-active-pattern/

Feb 02

Friday Morning Notes On The Pattern Ahead…

Updated 02.02.24 @ 7:37a

We don’t see any reason to deviate from the longstanding ideas on the overall pattern evolution ahead. February will continue to provide an unseasonably mild and quiet stretch through the first 1/3 of the month ahead of a pattern transition back to colder around or just after 2/10.

2/2 – 2/8

2/9 – 2/16

Note the ridge begins to break down across the East during the Week 2 period above. This is the transition to colder times, locally, as heights begin to build across western Canada and the northeastern Pacific. By mid-month, we’re talking about an entirely different pattern as a trough continues to deepen across the East along with unseasonably cold air become more entrenched.

In the shorter term period, not only are we talking about unseasonably warm temperatures (it’ll push 60°+ here late next week) but also incredibly quiet weather. In fact, we aren’t looking at another opportunity for measurable precipitation until next Thursday.

A warm front and trailing cold front will return a round of unsettled weather (rain and even thunderstorm potential) here as we get set to close the work week next week. More on expected rain coverage and amounts as we get into the weekend and next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-morning-notes-on-the-pattern-ahead/

Feb 01

Welcome To February…

Updated 02.01.24 @ 7:45a Aside from a dry back door cold front overnight, all is quiet in the weather world, locally, but changes are on the horizon around the 10th…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/welcome-to-february/

Jan 31

Unseasonably Dry And Calm Open To February; Winter’s Return…

Updated 01.31.24 @7:06a

In the short term, there’s really nothing of significance to discuss. We have no changes to our thinking that February opens on an unusually dry and mild note. In fact, we don’t forecast our next opportunity of measurable precipitation until late next week or next weekend.

Upcoming 10-day precipitation anomalies
Upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies

Despite the well earned thaw that we’ll enjoy now, winter is far from over. In fact, not only do we forecast a return to a cold, wintry pattern around Feb 10th (give or take a day or two), but it’s easy to build a case that this should be a more prolonged cold blast when compared to its January predecessor. The reason? Alignment with the teleconnection suite (emphasizing the anticipated strong negative NAO). We also anticipate the MJO getting into Phase 8 by mid-month which opens up the window for the potential of more extreme cold.

To no surprise, the latest ensemble data is pointing towards where the pattern is heading once past the first 1/3 of February.

Once we lock into the colder pattern, thinking here is we’ll remain locked in with an overall cold signal to close Feb and open March (first 10-14 days). It may be a “rubber band” type pattern. Cold to open before an abrupt flip to significantly warmer (hot?) conditions for the second half of March.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-dry-and-calm-open-to-february-winters-return/

Jan 30

VIDEO: Weak Clipper Today; Unusually Quiet Stretch Of Weather Ahead…

Updated 01.30.24 @ 7:16a A weak clipper will deliver mixed showers this morning and a round of light snow showers this evening. Totals with both rounds of precipitation will be…

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