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Category: SOI Index
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-video-update-snow-storms-and-a-major-pattern-shift-on-the-horizon/
Feb 17
Sunday Morning Video Update…
A wintry mix this morning sets the stage for another active week of weather across central Indiana. We also look forward to late Feb and early March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-video-update-3/
Feb 13
Disruption In The Force Or Just Noise?
Our longstanding call has been for the period of early to mid-February to feature a “transitional” pattern before locking into one last cold, stormy period for the winter during the 2/18 through 3/10 time frame. The reasoning behind this idea has been stated multiple times in previous updates.
However, there’s no denying that today’s 12z ensemble update (both from the GEFS and EPS) has rattled us a bit with that idea. The GEFS and EPS are in very good agreement at 500mb:
This is in the face of Phases 8 and 1 from an MJO perspective:
Furthermore, the sudden negative “jolt” in the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) also favors a significant period of cold, stormy weather, locally:
Please understand this isn’t us changing our ongoing forecast that’s out there, but instead making sure we’re presenting a 100% transparent idea from two of the most highly respected ensemble products out there (that have been generating a lot of attention today with this output). We prefer to give it another few days before altering our medium and longer term forecast to see if any sort of consistency can develop.
At the end of the day, this may be a situation where the resistance from the SE ridge puts up enough of a fight to lead to a lack of “suppression” from the hyperactive storm track currently in place, and instead continuing the busy storm track into the TN and Ohio Valley regions as cold air presses.
Rest assured, you’ll be the first to know if a wholesale medium to long range forecast change is required here. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/disruption-in-the-force-or-just-noise/
Aug 11
VIDEO: Another Gorgeous Weekend Awaits And We Look Ahead To September…
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Jan 05
Confidence Increasing On Leader-Follower Event; But Details Murky…
A look over model data from overnight suggests we need to focus on a “leader-follower” event for the upcoming weekend.
We’re confident the “leader” player is a rain maker for IN in the Thursday afternoon-Friday time frame (.40-.70 rainfall potential).
Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
As we progress into the second half of the weekend, details get quite murky on the specifics with the secondary (follower) area of low pressure that develops along a pressing arctic front.
As we’ve been discussing, model solutions will vary within each respected model (GFS, Euro, GEM, etc.) in a run-to-run fashion. Stack them up against one another, and we’ll likely continue to have as many different solutions as we do models that we’re looking at. It’s a byproduct of a pattern transition and that crashing SOI (which is still crashing this morning, btw). Case in point, note the various options below for Sunday.
The GFS takes a low from southern AL into the coastal plain of NC. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
The Canadian is a blend of the GFS and European as it tracks low pressure from eastern LA into the central Appalachians. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
The European is most aggressive in the west track as it takes low pressure from the MO bootheel into northern IN. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Past experience with similar patterns certainly leads us to lean more towards the European/ Canadian solution over the GFS from this distance. We know that models have their own biases though. Time and time again the GFS bias is to rush things along a bit too much from this distance and become too progressive. On the flip side, the European is notorious for dragging it’s heels a bit and, at times, can be too slow with bringing energy out of the west. This in return impacts things downstream…
From this distance, we still can’t be too specific with snow/ precipitation prospects Sunday. While confidence is increasing on at least some sort of snow to contend with, the significance of such isn’t possible to iron out at the moment. Much fine tuning will be required. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/confidence-increasing-on-leader-follower-event-but-details-murky/
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