Feb 15
* Your full, updated, 7-Day Forecast will be published later tonight. 1.) In the long range, credit the Canadian model for being spot on with yesterday’s snow storm. It was…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/15/saturday-morning-notes/
Jan 30
If you have travel plans across central Indiana Friday and Friday night, please make sure you leave plenty of time to get to your destination and prepare for a variety of precipitation types. In fact, it’s entirely possible (depending on what time of day you’re traveling) that you have to deal with rain across south-central Indiana and snow by the time you arrive into the northern Indianapolis suburbs, complete with an icy mixture “in between.”
Digging through the weather playbook for Friday into Saturday:
A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, allowing a wind shift out of the north to arrive into the city in the early to mid morning Friday. We’ll have to be in “nowcast” mode Friday to determine just exactly how far south the front makes it as this will go a long way into determining precipitation types across central Indiana.
Ultimately, a wave of low pressure will move along the front Saturday, which will help milder air push north and result in a changeover from a wintry mix to all rain during the majority of the day Saturday. In fact, there’s the chance portions of central Indiana may not have to deal with much, if any, precipitation through the majority of the day Saturday- especially south. Before that, however, we’ll have to deal with a wide variety of wintry precipitation issues Friday and Friday night… Warmer low level air will be drawn northward and overrun the colder air at the surface Friday and Friday night. What will initially be a period of snow Friday will transition to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain Friday night and all rain Saturday. That said, we note the milder push will be brief, and colder air will pour back into the region on gusty northwest winds Saturday night. This may result in a brief period of light snow Saturday night (not a big deal).
We think the latest high-resolution, short-term, NAM model (courtesy from the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics model suite) has a very good handle on accumulation ideas Friday and Saturday and is in best agreement with our analysis laid out above. This is a look at forecast snow accumulation between now and Saturday night, but we also note there will be some light sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of any snow that falls Friday. As far as that snow goes, we think a 1-2″ band is laid down from the city and points north, increasing further as you travel into north-central and northern Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/30/as-promised-complicated-and-complex/
Jan 21
The winter of 2013-2014 is off to a rip-roaring start and, as we’ve discussed in previous posts, the mid to long range data suggests we remain locked in an exceptionally cold and snowy pattern. Officially, as of this evening, the Indianapolis National Weather Service has posted some impressive stats (the full report can be found here), including:
As we look ahead to the upcoming 7-10 day period, we note a continuation of arctic reinforcements- each which will be plenty capable of adding to the snowfall total. Additionally, our cold air mass will only grow even more severe and bitter over time, including multiple days during the aforementioned period where central Indiana will go below zero. Finally, there have been many questions concerning a potential big storm centered on early February. I’m not sure where this rumor started, but it’s far too early to say with any sort of confidence any specifics around a possible big winter storm early February. That said, as we’ll get into briefly below, the pattern does appear to be aligning itself in a way where a widespread winter storm is possible somewhere across the eastern half of the country.
Okay, okay, back to the near term… Let’s start with tomorrow! After a cold and dry start to the day, our next arctic front will blow into the region during the evening. Arctic fronts are notorious for having bursts of heavy snow rates in a scattered fashion and this appears to be the case as the next arctic front moves through Wednesday evening. We bracket the hours of 5p-8p for the possibility of heavy snow bursts racing through central Indiana. While these won’t last long, they’ll likely be intense- capable of depositing a quick 1″-2″ of new snow on a gusty northwest wind within 30-60 minutes. White-out conditions and extremely heavy snowfall rates will accompany the heavier bursts of snow. Latest high-resolution model data shows the heavy snow bursts accompanying the arctic front tomorrow evening:
Thursday will be mostly dry and frigid, but all eyes will then begin to turn to our next significant winter event Friday into Saturday. The pressure gradient between high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley and the next approaching arctic front (and associated low pressure) will really being to kick up the wind across our region Friday. We’re afraid we deal with another round of severe blowing and drifting snow Friday, especially Friday afternoon and night. Areas most suspect to drifting and blowing snow will be central Indiana’s open country and may not be too different from the problems our region dealt with Sunday into Monday morning from blowing and drifting.
As we approach Friday night into Saturday, snow will overspread the region and will likely accumulate to the tune of a “few inches” during this time period. Strong winds will remain, shifting from the west to the northwest and eventually north. Open country will remain the prime place for continued severe blowing and drifting problems.
Just as soon as Saturday’s snow systems exits stage right, we turn our attention to potentially another significant snow maker for the second half of the weekend. Latest model data remains consistent on moving another potent clipper system into our region Sunday, including the GFS and Canadian forecast models. We still have time to fine tune the precise track of the storm, but just north of the low’s track an additional 3-5″ type snow is possible Sunday. Note the GFS and Euro in relative agreement on the track of the low, with the Canadian currently a touch further north. We’ll fine tune in the days ahead… Experience with similar patterns from the past suggests central Indiana should brace for more accumulating snow Sunday.
As for the brutal cold, we note multiple pushes of fresh arctic air behind each snow maker. We currently target Thursday morning, Friday morning, Tuesday morning, next Wednesday morning, and next Friday morning as having the most likely shot at dipping below zero. The “coldest of the cold” likely means Tuesday morning takes the crown, with lows potentially dipping into the double-digit below zero range for central Indiana. The European forecast model (below) even shows sub-zero temperatures making it as far south as the southern Appalachians.
As we look even longer term, there have been many questions centered on the potential of a big winter storm for early February. Before we go any further, we want to stress it’s far too early to make any claim of certainty to the above. That said, there are items we can pick up on to a least “raise an eyebrow” that something of significance may be brewing… Do we mean for anyone to take that verbatim and to the bank? Absolutely not.
The European Weeklies suggest we need to keep an eye on the first week of February. They show a potential phasing of the jet (where the northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase together- often times resulting in a big storm)… That said, we want to again stress this is far too early to be discussing with any sort of certainty. Heh, the next week will keep us busy enough!
Keep the shovel handy! Snow removal companies, thank you for your service and hard work…hopefully you have plenty of coffee on hand!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/21/historic-snow-season-keeps-rolling-along/
Jan 06
The “big dig” may have to wait a couple of days as brutal temperatures and wind chills will make for downright dangerous conditions to be outdoors for any length of time. Coming off the city’s second snowiest day in history (11.1″), we now have to contend with dangerous cold. This is the type of cold that can turn deadly should you be outdoors for any length of time. Take it seriously and remain indoors hunkered down if at all possible.
Before we look at the cold, here’s a snap shot of storm snowfall totals from our winter storm. “Historic,” “Severe,” “Memorable” are all words that come to mind when discussing this storm. Widespread 12″ + totals have been reported across central Indiana, and drifts are approaching 7 feet in spots.
Temperatures today will only reach the 10-12 BELOW zero mark, coupled with wind chills that dip below 40 BELOW zero at times through the day. With the wind, blowing and drifting snow will remain a concern.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/06/dangerous-cold/
Jan 01
It’s great to be back in the good ole weather office and craft a post about the upcoming weather pattern- a pattern that should be pointed out to be progressing along as planned. Simply put, if you like winter weather, this is the pattern for you.
If you haven’t had a chance to read the posts from the past couple weeks, please be sure to do so as we laid the ground work as to why we were buying a cold, wintry pattern returning:
As we look ahead over the upcoming (7) days we’re tracking two accumulating snow opportunities and one big slug of downright bitter (and dangerously cold) air.
First things first and that’s the snow event ahead Wednesday night into Thursday.
We currently think snow overspreads central Indiana late Wednesday night into the wee morning hours Thursday. Snowfall accumulations with system numero uno will likely be in the 2-4″ range for many neighborhoods across central Indiana.
The latest high-resolution NAM model shows the snow moving in and becoming moderate to briefly heavy during the wee morning hours Thursday:
Heaviest snow with system #1 falls prior to noon Thursday with light snow and gusty winds lingering for the PM.
That said, we don’t have much down time as system #2 is set to arrive late Saturday night into the wee morning hours Sunday. The weather situation is one that features an arctic boundary sinking south over the region Sunday morning with a wave of low pressure organizing along the middle Mississippi River Valley. The surface low is expected to move northeast Sunday and help spread precipitation into the greater Indianapolis and central Indiana region. With cold air in place, this precipitation is likely to fall in the form of snow.
While we have a couple of days to keep an eye on the Saturday night-Sunday time period, the likelihood of additional accumulating snow is growing with each and every model run. The “ridiculously” early call on the Saturday night-Sunday time period, based on a variety of raw numbers, medium range models, and ensembles would suggest 3-6″ of additional snow is ahead during the aforementioned time period. Again, we caution confidence ins’t as high as with system #1, due to the time period, but please be sure to stay tuned.
The GFS shows widespread snow falling across the region Sunday, with a favorable surface low track for accumulating snow across central Indiana:
Following the second snow system, model data continues to suggest we have to deal with some downright dangerous air. In fact, this would be the coldest air in many a year across central Indiana and many other locations of the Mid West and even into the Deep South. Forecast lows in the double digit below zero range are possible following the second snow maker and associated arctic front early next week….
Needless to say, I hope you like winter weather!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/01/things-progressing-as-planned-double-shot-of-snow-love/
Dec 19
As always, your latest 7-Day Video Forecast can be found to the right in the video player. 1.) A milder southerly air flow allowed us to remain above freezing…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/19/thursday-morning-weather-rambles/
Dec 18
Mother Nature seems determined to put us weather forecasters to hard work as we get set to head into the Christmas season and welcome in 2014. We’re tracking a major flood situation that will unfold across central Indiana over the upcoming weekend, followed by a reload of the cold and potentially a storm with a more wintry component as we get closer to the New Year.
First things first and that’s the significant flood threat in the short-term period. Without trying to go into scare tactic mode, current model data would result in a downright dangerous flooding event for many low lying and flood prone areas this weekend. Rainfall numbers are extremely impressive with this event and with a deep tropical connection, widespread 3-4″ totals are certainly likely, including some localized higher amounts. Note the latest European chart, courtesy of the model suite off Weatherbell Analytics. Needless to say, the Gulf of Mexico is officially “open for business” and will help contribute to excessive rainfall totals and, as stated above, potentially a dangerous flooding event this weekend across central Indiana.
Latest numbers averaged off a variety of computer models would place just under 4″ of rainfall down by noon Sunday, most of which falls between Friday and Sunday morning. We note (2) waves of enhanced rainfall intensity set to impact the region. As of now we’re targeting Saturday afternoon and again late Saturday night/ Sunday morning for extremely heavy rain, shown below.
We still have time to watch the data and monitor the track of the storm. It’s possible the “heaviest of the heavy” axis of rain shifts somewhat in the days ahead, but it’s also important to note that even a light to moderate rain event combined with a frozen ground and a solid snow pack still in place will lead to flooding problems here across central Indiana. The question of whether or not we’ll deal with flooding here this weekend shouldn’t be asked, but instead the question that remains is just how severe will the flooding be? Stay tuned and if you live or work in a flood prone area, we would recommend preparing now for flooding.
Now, as we look ahead and focus on the Christmas to New Years period our thoughts will shift from a flood threat in the near term to one that’s more wintry. We’ll turn dramatically colder Sunday afternoon behind the big rain storm and that will set the stage for a colder-than-average run up to Christmas. In fact, latest raw numbers off some forecast model guidance has some frigid readings ahead next week (upper single digits not ruled out for lows).
The upcoming 10 days off the European forecast model charts show an interesting scenario with the coming thaw, but the key word is brief. Note days 6-10 are back into a colder-than-normal regime.
Additionally, we think we’ll have to deal with another storm prior to the New Year period and with the colder air back in place, there’s the threat we could have to contend with a wintry side to the next storm. The details with storm number two will have to wait until we finish dealing with the first storm and associated serious flood threat it’s presenting.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/18/a-lot-of-weather-to-talk-about/
Dec 11
Our colder than normal pattern has really been in place since mid October. Looking ahead, despite some potential brief “relaxation” from the cold a few days next week, the mid to long range pattern continues to look colder than normal. Here’s a look at December so far, temperature-wise. Note the presence of the southeast ridge keeping that particular portion of the lower 48 warmer than normal, so far. Everywhere else, the freezer door has been left open!
What a difference a year makes, snow-wise, as well! Here’s a look at the snow cover on this date last year compared to present. Amazingly, this year, nearly 64% of the country is snow covered compared to 31% on this date last year.
The combination of more than normal snow and colder air for the majority of the country can be traced back to the expanding snow pack across Canada earlier this fall. Now, the cold and snow are essentially in “feed back” mode with one another, as the overall pattern ahead is one that’s plenty cold…and snowy.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/11/what-a-difference-a-year-makes/
Nov 24
As we approach the all-important holiday travel season, I thought it would be nice to review what some of the data suggests in the long range sense. While nothing is “set in stone” talking about weather 2-3 weeks out, we feel pretty confident in the overall idea of a colder than normal pattern and one that’s also potentially wintry- from a precipitation perspective. The specifics with each storm will have to be handled as they come.
Let’s look at some of the data. BTW, I want to give full credit to the awesome model suite that can be found at Weatherbell Analytics for some of these images. Be sure to check them out at weather bell.com.
First, we’ll take a look at the Canadian ensembles, centered on the 8-16 day period. Note the tongue of cold coming out of western Canada, extending southeast and encompassing the Ohio Valley region. Folks, this is significant cold forecast off the Canadian ensembles as temperatures are suggested to average 5-7 degrees (C) below normal.
The latest GFS ensembles also suggest widespread colder than normal temperatures over the upcoming couple weeks. Similar to the Canadian (above), the GFS suggests temperatures average 5-7 degrees celsius below normal.
Latest European ensemble data suggests a cold look as well, but one that also may feature a day or two above normal (over the next couple weeks). The latest ensemble control run highlights the threat of some bitterly cold arctic air plunging south towards the second week of December (posted below). We’ll continue to monitor this in the days to come.
Here’s a look at the latest CFSv2. While it’s in stark contrast to only a couple of weeks ago (in its December forecast), the model is now onboard with most other data in forecasting a colder than normal December for our region.
It has to be pointed out that all of the cold data is forecast during a time where the three “major” teleconnections really aren’t in the most ideal spots for eastern cold. Typically, cold lovers across the eastern United States want a negative AO and NAO with a positive PNA. The NAO and AO are forecast to be very “sporadic” over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days while the PNA is forecast to go back negative. That said, the NAO has the biggest influence on our weather from January through March (we’ve covered this in posts in the archives). The expansive early season snow and ice pack through western Canada is having it’s say with a couple of early season “brutal” cold shots here (it’s very rare to get this kind of cold so early in the season). We’ll continue to monitor these teleconnections moving forward for any sort of a more defined signal that may begin to come to fruition.
Speaking of snow and ice cover; look at how much more territory across the Lower 48 is covered with snow and ice compared to this date (November 24th) last year. Impressive, huh?
November 24, 2012 (11.8% covered in snow)
November 24, 2013 (37.8% covered in snow)
As we look closer at the near term, there’s a chance of some light snow moving in Monday evening (not a huge deal, but some light accumulations of a dusting to half an inch are possible). Scattered snow showers will also blow into central Indiana Wednesday as a reinforcing shot of fresh arctic air blows in prior to Thanksgiving.
In the mid range, both the GFS and European ensembles (below) suggest an “intriguing” look for the first 10 days of December for the potential of a more widespread winter weather maker. It’s far too early for details, but with arctic air being supplied into a pattern that looks to have a southern branch beginning to flex it’s muscle, we’ll have to remain on our toes as we go into December… Here’s wishing you a very happy and healthy Thanksgiving, complete with safe travels!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/24/data-suggests-cold-pattern-keeps-on-keepin-on/
Nov 19
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/19/video-update-on-the-remainder-of-this-week-and-at-some-thanksgiving-week-wintry-mischief/