Category: Snow/Ice Cover

Jan 09

Wintry Sandwich Sunday Evening-Monday; More Bitter Cold Follows.

Filed under Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Freezing Rain, Sleet, snow, Snow/Ice Cover, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Winter Storm
January 9, 2015

Busy times continue in the good ole weather office as we get set to deal with yet another winter storm during the upcoming weekend.

First, we’ll deal with more below zero temperatures tonight and Saturday morning as overnight lows bottom out between 5 and 10 degrees below zero tonight area-wide. Wind chill values, of course, will be even colder (-15 to -25). Dangerous cold continues with considerable blowing and drifting in the open country. Saturday will be the “calm before the storm” with unseasonably cold conditions continuing, but with lighter winds and sunshine.

Clouds will increase Saturday night into Sunday and we’ll begin to introduce precipitation into your forecast as early as Sunday afternoon (not a bad day for two classic back-to-back playoff games if you ask me). Here’s our best idea of what you can expect statewide after reviewing all guidance today:

Some initial thinking would place the following numbers (a bit early to be too specific), and we caution this will have to be fine tuned as we move forward.

Snow accumulation of 2″-4″ across north-central Indiana, particularly just north of Indianapolis. In the “mainly snow” zone, expect amounts of 3″-6″. Ice storm criteria accumulation of freezing rain is possible (0.25″, or greater) across central Indiana, as well. South of the city, early ideas suggest roughly 1″-2″ of snow and glaze potential closer to that potentially damaging 0.25″ amount. Again, we state that these numbers are very early ideas and will have to be fine tuned.

Precipitation should initially overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon in the form of sleet and snow (more sleet south-central, more snow north-central) before transitioning to more of a sleet and freezing rain event. Finally, we anticipate the wintry mixture of precipitation to end as snow before moving out Monday morning. Timing and duration of precipitation types will obviously determine how much ice and snow a given location sees.

Another big item we want to be sure to mention is that yet ANOTHER push of bitter arctic air will invade behind this storm and set the stage for another dangerously cold period Tuesday into Wednesday (back below zero we go)!

Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the forecast over the weekend!

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Jan 09

Catching Up On Where We’ve Been And What Lies Ahead…

Filed under Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Freezing Rain, Sleet, snow, Snow/Ice Cover, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles, Windy, Winter Storm
January 9, 2015

January is off to a frigid start. After a mild December, January is certainly reminding folks that there’s a lot of winter in this pattern. Precipitation is running above normal…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/catching-up-on-where-weve-been-and-what-lies-ahead/

Feb 25

Tracking A Late Weekend Winter Storm

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, Sleet, snow, Snow/Ice Cover, Winter Storm
February 25, 2014

Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.

5/ 18	8/ 14	2/ 23	22/ 37	20/ 30	10/ 20	5/ 18
– – –	– – –	Light	Light	Heavy	Light	Light

Forecast Updated 02.26.14 @ 7:43a

Frigid Midweek…A brutally cold air mass is blowing into the region this morning, especially considering we’re nearly into March! This is laying the groundwork for a snowy weekend, but we’ll get to that in a bit. Forecast highs average at 44 degrees this time of the year and today’s high will be lucky to reach 18. EVEN COLDER air blows in late tonight into early Thursday and will result in continued dangerous below zero wind chill values. Needless to say, plan to bundle up upon heading outdoors. While the calendar may suggest spring is near, Mother Nature and Old Man Winter have other ideas.

Late Week Light Snow…A warm front will lift north through the region Saturday morning and will be responsible for producing a round of light snow Friday night into Saturday AM. As of now, early numbers suggest around an inch of snow is possible, but we’ll continue to monitor things and update as needed.

Late Weekend Winter Storm…While details are still far from etched in stone, there’s no doubt behind a significant winter storm brewing for the second half of the weekend. This storm will have significant snow for portions of central Indiana and significant icing potential for others. As of now, we anticipate air cold enough to support frozen, or freezing, precipitation across our immediate viewing area of central Indiana. All of that said, we caution that the track and intensity of the storm will likely change between now and Sunday and we’ll continue to keep close tabs on this event. Early numbers are impressive as far as precipitation goes with liquid equivalent amounts around 1″ churned out, on average, from a variety of computers models.

Arctic Air Reloads…We may be into meteorological spring next week, but Old Man Winter continues his relentless ways that we’ve grown so accustomed to over the past several months. Fresh arctic air will plunge into central Indiana’s potentially snow packed ground early next week and could ultimately help yield below zero air by the middle of next week. What an impressive winter.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 4-8″
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tracking-a-late-weekend-winter-storm/

Feb 16

Sunday Afternoon Thoughts…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, Heavy Rain, Rain, Sleet, snow, Snow/Ice Cover, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Winter Storm
February 16, 2014

1.) A scan over the latest data continues to point towards an absolute mess of a Monday afternoon. Our accumulation ideas remain relatively unchanged from this morning’s update, aside from “beefing” expected snow totals for Indy’s northern ‘burbs by 1″. Most of this falls from noon to 6pm and will be followed by a dry, cold, and blustery Monday night. After likely a white-nuckle evening commute Monday, the combination of sub-freezing temperatures and gusty northwest winds Monday night will likely lead to another rough commute for Tuesday morning.

** We caution that this will be another “now cast” situation when it comes to precipitation types and their respected precise zones tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned here or to your favorite local weather media for updates and potential changes.**

Indianapolis northern ‘burbs, including Zionsville: 2-4″ snow and sleet with less than 0.10 of freezing rain.
Indianapolis proper: 2″ snow and sleet with around 0.10 of freezing rain
Indianapolis southern ‘burbs, including Greenwood: 1″ snow and sleet with up to 0.25 freezing rain.

2.) We continue to monitor what will be a brief thaw and associated flood risk mid week. Even without rain, water rise would occur and urban flooding from the combination of melting snow and blocked (from all of the snow) drainage zones. When you add 0.50-1″ of rain atop the melting then problems could arise Wednesday into Thursday. Additionally, we’ll need to prepare for the likelihood of dense fog Wednesday as milder air surges north over a deep snow pack.

3.) For anyone thinking spring is setting in during our mid week thaw will need to think again. Latest model data continues to suggest we reverse things quickly later this week and for the upcoming weekend. In fact, some model data, including the European, suggests central Indiana is under the gun for a weekend winter storm. We’ll continue to monitor closely…

4.) Additionally, prospects continue to grow for another extended period of well below normal cold and renewed wintry precipitation chances in the long term (into March). Both the GFS and European models are in agreement on the mid to long range pattern with a trough settling back into the eastern half of the country.

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Feb 16

Cold Today; Messy Monday Ahead.

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Flooding, Fog, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, Rain, snow, Snow/Ice Cover, Spring Tease, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy, Winter Storm
February 16, 2014

Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.

16/ 25	15/ 33	20/ 39	24/ 42	35/ 57	28/ 45	28/ 50
0.00”	1-3″ (and ice)	0.00”	Trace	0.50″-1.00″	0.00″	0.00”

Forecast Updated 02.16.14 @ 11:15a

Cold Sunday…Fresh off celebrating our snowiest winter on record (surpassed last night at IND at 51.6″ and the Record Event Report can be found here), we’ll enjoy a dry day, but blowing and drifting snow will remain an issue in the open country. A few breaks in the cloud cover can be expected this afternoon on what will otherwise be a rather cloudy day. Highs will only climb into the lower to middle 20s (well below the average high of 40 and closer to the normal low of 24). Yes, our cold, snowy winter just keeps on keepin’ on!

Snow And Ice Issues Monday…A storm system will move through the region Monday and deliver a mixture of precipitation types across central Indiana. The way we see things unfolding as of this forecast update brings a wintry mix of sleet and snow into the city around noon with periods of moderate to even heavy wintry precipitation falling into the mid to late afternoon hours before we begin to see the shield of moisture push northeast. This will be a “thump and go” type event.

As for precipitation type, this remains a challenge and will require much fine tuning later tonight and through the day tomorrow (another now cast scenario). We’re thinking mostly snow is the dominant form of precipitation from the northern suburbs of Indianapolis and points north. Here, 2-3″ of wet snow is possible, polished off with a light glaze of a freezing rain/sleet mixture before precipitation ends. For the city, itself, we think around 1-2″ of snow is possible with a glaze of freezing rain of around a tenth of an inch. Farther south, to include the southern Indianapolis suburbs, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will be the concern with glaze potential approaching one quarter inch. Again, we caution this is our best idea at this point and we’ll post some fresh thoughts later this evening.

Needless to say, tomorrow stands to include treacherous driving conditions in and around central Indiana and the National Weather Service will likely issue Winter Weather/ Freezing Rain Advisories later this afternoon to account for the wintry conditions anticipated tomorrow afternoon.

Flooding Concerns On The Rise…With such a deep snowpack across central Indiana, combined with a frozen ground, flooding concerns will be on the rise as early as the middle to latter part of the week. We think dry and chilly (albeit milder) conditions will be with us Tuesday, but low clouds, fog, and drizzle likely develop by Wednesday as milder air streams north over the snowpack locked in across the region.

By Thursday, our attention turns to the potential of heavy rain and a couple of thunderstorms as a cold front blows through the region. Early ideas of Thursday rainfall numbers would suggest anywhere from .50-1″ of rain is laid down and when combined with the heavy snow pack and milder air, flooding concerns will certainly be present. Needless to say, if you live in a flood prone area, please monitor the situation closely later this week.

Winter Blows Back In…As promised, the briefly milder shot of air would be just that- brief. We continue to monitor data that suggests a colder, more wintry, pattern blows right back into the region to wrap up February.