Category Archives: snow

Warmth Dominates Now, But A Cold & Wintry Pattern Is Lurking For The Holidays…

The short-term weather pattern will continue to be dominated by rather “boring” conditions for this time of year, along with much milder than normal air.  A weak frontal system will swing through here Thursday and while a light shower is possible, that’s really the only significant (if you want to call it that) weather feature through the upcoming 7-10 days.

In addition to the rather quiet weather, relative warmth will dominate as we open December.  When “normals” feature lows in the upper 20s and highs in the lower 40s, actual overnight lows will only fall into the low-mid 30s and highs will reach the middle to upper 50s.

When we look ahead, the shelf life of this warmth is certainly limited.  The GEFS showcases this shift in the pattern from a warm open to the month towards a much colder pattern very nicely.  The GEFS has other model support, as well.

This is the type of dramatic shift in the overall pattern that not only threatens to “lock in” a colder than average regime, but potentially lead to plenty of wintry mischief to boot, and just in time for the holiday season.

There’s teleconnection support for the wintry shift, as well, leading to further confidence of a significant move towards cold, and potentially snowy/ icy, conditions as the true holiday and Christmas season approaches.

To summarize, while unseasonably quiet and mild conditions will rule in the short-term, Mother Nature sure seems to have an attitude of making up for “lost time” in the medium to longer range.  This is the type pattern that we’ll have to monitor the potential of some sort of leader-follower scenario as the transition from warm to cold takes place, and given the blocky nature of the pattern, it sure seems like we’re heading into a busy time of things from a wintry perspective mid and late month.

Perhaps this will be the scene as Christmas time nears across the Mid West, including central Indiana?  Time will tell…

AO, Arctic Cold, Autumn, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, NAO, PNA, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Thanksgiving Week Opens Cold…

Highlights:

  • Scattered flurries and snow showers Sunday morning
  • Dry for Thanksgiving travels
  • Rather boring week of weather ahead

November Or December?!  A strong cold front is slipping southeast as we type this forecast Saturday afternoon.  This will result in a much colder close to the day, along with wrap around moisture transitioning to wet snow later this evening across central and northern portions of the state.  Sunday will start off with scattered flurries and snow showers before dry conditions quickly return.  It’ll be an unseasonably cold and blustery day.

As folks begin to travel for the upcoming Thanksgiving Day holiday, high pressure will provide an extended period of dry and rather uneventful conditions.  A dry cold front will pass through the state Tuesday and help reinforce the chill for Thanksgiving, itself.  While we’ll notice gusty breezes at times this upcoming week, precipitation will be hard to come by.

Our next threat of precipitation will arrive this time next week as a cold front moves south.  Expect showers Saturday, followed by a wind shift and coldest air of the season by the second half of next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Weekend Of Changes: Storms To Snow…

Highlights:

  • Big changes this weekend
  • Relatively calm Thanksgiving week
  • Chilly Thanksgiving

Storms To Snow This Weekend…An approaching storm system will lead to an active open to the weekend.  Beforehand, thankfully, we’ll close the work week out on a rather quiet note.  The daytime hours will remain dry before moisture begins to return this evening.  An initial round of showers will move across central Indiana (thinking between 8p-9p) before steadier and heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms blow into town Saturday.  A strengthening surface low will move from the central Plains tonight and into the southern Great Lakes Saturday.  This will lead to a briefly milder surge of air Saturday morning into the early afternoon before a cold front sweeps through the state and leads to a sharply colder close to the day.  Right ahead of the cold front, a skinny, but potentially intense, line of thunderstorms will track across central Indiana late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon.  Damaging wind gusts are possible as this thin line of storms advances across central and southern Indiana.  Winds will then shift around to the northwest and help drive much colder air into the region through the afternoon and evening.  In fact, we’ll turn cold enough to allow precipitation to end as a touch of wet snow Saturday evening.

We’ll wrap up the weekend and kick off Thanksgiving week on a much calmer note.  Chilly high pressure will build in Sunday, allowing sunshine to return, but temperatures will run around 15° below normal.  A dry cold front will pass through the state Tuesday.  With the exception of a wind shift and a few more clouds we really shouldn’t expect much more in the way of “excitement.”  This will allow unseasonably cool air to return for Thanksgiving, itself.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
7-Day Outlook, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Rain, snow, T-storms, Thanksgiving, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Busy Week Of Weather…

November is off to a chilly start and longer range data suggests the chill grows more significant as we venture through the second half of the month.  Officially, IND is running more than 1° below normal through the 12th.

Despite an active weather week ahead, the open to the new work week will be rather uneventful.  Weak high pressure will keep us dry today and Tuesday.  Fog and low clouds should give way to an increasingly bright sky by this afternoon (still more clouds than sun today) and partly cloudy skies Tuesday.

Our next weather feature approaches Wednesday in the form of a cold front.  This will return showers to the area midweek.  Rainfall amounts Wednesday should generally fall in the 0.25″ to 0.50″ range.

A stronger storm will impact the region as we close out the work week.  Strengthening low pressure will track into the Great Lakes and drag a trailing cold front through our region Friday evening.  A briefly milder southwesterly air flow will push temperatures close to 60° Friday afternoon/ evening before the sharply colder push of air blows into town for the weekend.  The transition may include strong to severe thunderstorms Friday PM, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a large portion of the region under a severe risk Friday.  It’ll be important to stay tuned to future updates.  Even outside of potentially damaging thunderstorm gusts, non-t-storm winds will gust over 40 MPH Friday.

Once the cold front sweeps through the region, a sharply colder air mass will plunge into the Ohio Valley for the weekend.  Overnight data has trended even colder and would suggest falling Saturday temperatures (most of the day will be spent in the 30s) and highs only in the lower to middle 30s Sunday.

Speaking of cold, Thanksgiving week is looking unseasonably cold, and there’s also the potential of early-season snow (far too early for specifics).

Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Thanksgiving, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy