Category: snow

Feb 12

Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Rain, snow
February 12, 2014

Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.

0/ 27	9/ 36	21/ 28	8/ 27	17/ 32	24/ 42	28/ 46
0.00”	0.00″	1-3″	1-2″	0.00″	0.50″	0.20″

Forecast Updated 02.12.14 @ 7:50a

Midweek Moderation…While still cold (and still below normal), temperatures will begin to moderate from the frigid readings of the past few days. Additionally, we’ll continue to enjoy sunny skies both today and Thursday, though we’ll add a gusty southwest breeze into the mix Thursday.

Accumulating Late Week Snow…We’re eyeing two fast moving clipper systems that will deliver accumulating snow for late week. The first snow event moves in Friday followed by a second snow maker Saturday. Both have the potential to produce a couple inches of snow across the region and we’ll be able to fine tune these amounts over the next day, or so.

Rainy And Milder…A push of milder air will move in early next week. Unfortunately, the milder air will come at a cost. With the heavy snow pack on the ground combined with the warmer air moving in from the southwest we’ll be looking at a gloomy period, including a couple waves of rain.

A push of colder air will swoosh back in here Tuesday night and could lead to a wintry mix before precipitation end. Looking longer term, we’re still expecting a “taste of spring” late next week!

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/accumulating-valentines-day-snow/

Feb 11

“O Canada…”

Filed under Canadian Model, Forecast Discussion, snow
February 11, 2014

A developing weather situation warrants our attention tonight and that’s the potential of a snow event Valentine’s Day. The Canadian has led the way with this system and other forecast model data is beginning to follow it’s lead, slowly, but surely :-).

While we have time to continue to fine tune things, the trend is certainly one for the snowier over the past 12 hours. That’s not saying we have complete agreement amongst all forecast models, but the overall pattern is one that has to at least raise an eye brow for accumulating snow potential across central Indiana Friday.

A clipper system will dive southeast out of Canada and into the Dakotas Thursday. It’ll race southeast through the Plains states and into Missouri as early as Friday before tracking into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys’ Saturday morning. Clipper systems can always be challenging to track, but especially during the late winter and spring months. The combination of lingering winter chill and the resurgent spring warmth can turn what may seem like a “harmless” wet snow event into a full-blown snow storm with little warning if one’s not paying attention. That’s not saying this is the case with this particular event, but it is saying we have a close eye on things. This will come on the front end of a brief, but significant, pattern change that will promote warmer than normal conditions across the region next week. The tight thermal gradient can essentially help fuel this system as it moves southeast (whether or not this makes “the turn” and adds to the snow pack along the East Coast is yet to be seen). Temperatures Saturday may approach 50 degrees across southwest Missouri Friday while here, across the “snow fields” of central Indiana, we remain locked in the 20s.

For now we’ll refrain from hoisting snowfall potential, but suggest you keep a close eye on the Friday and Saturday forecast and plan for the likelihood of at least some accumulation. Stay tuned.

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/11/o-canada/

Feb 10

Watching The Pattern Turn Active Yet Again…

Filed under Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, snow
February 10, 2014

After a dry period through early to mid week, our weather pattern will begin to turn active yet again as we head into late week and this weekend. Three of our more trusted mid range computer models handle the individual impulses of energy differently and the snow potential ranges anywhere from nothing more than 1″ to as much as 10″ in the Friday-Tuesday period. Most likely, we’re looking at something somewhere in the middle.

Our first chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday. Both the European forecast model and Canadian forecast model agree on this, while the latest GFS takes the same energy through the Great Lakes, missing our region entirely. We feel the GFS may be in error mode here. While it’s possible the GFS may lead the way (anything is possible this far off), we feel the EC and Canadian have a better handle on things and we’ve based our forecast (post below) off a blend of these two models for Friday, including accumulating snow.

Our next shot of accumulating snow blows in Saturday. All three models agree on this, but handle the track of the low, another clipper system, differently. The Canadian tracks the low south of IND, strengthens it on it’s journey east and results in a full blown snow storm here Saturday. The GFS and EC remain weaker and track the low across central or northern parts of the state, with much lighter snow amounts here.

You can find your completed 7-Day forecast in the post below this one. Finally, there are some signs the pattern may begin to relax and allow a milder brand of air into the region around the 20th. We caution though that this won’t be a “suddenly it’s spring” pattern, but rather a tease of sorts as longer term signals suggest a wintry regime returns late February into March…

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/10/watching-the-pattern-turn-active-yet-again/

Feb 09

ANOTHER Bitterly Cold Air Mass

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow, Windy
February 9, 2014

Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.

-1/ 12	-12/ 15	0/ 27	10/ 37	19/ 24	3/ 25	20/ 34
0.00”	0.00″	0.00”	0.00”	1-2”	1”	0.00”

Forecast Updated: 02.10.14 @ 5:05p

Bitterly Cold Air To Begin The New Work Week…A fresh batch of bitterly cold air settled into the Hoosier state overnight and is ready to greet us “smack dab in the face” on the way out the door. We call this “ouch cold.” Additionally, winds will remain gusty this morning and result in wind chill values as cold as 20-30 degrees below zero Monday. Normally, this would be a huge deal, but seems to be “just another day” during the snowy and bitterly cold winter of 2013-2014.

As the arctic high moves overhead tonight into Tuesday morning, we’ll experience the coldest air of the week, bottoming out anywhere from 7 to 14 degrees below zero across the snowy central Indiana landscape. Officially, we’re forecasting 9 below to begin the day Tuesday for Indianapolis.

Midweek Moderation…Though we’ll remain below seasonal levels straight through the forecast period, we’ll notice a moderating feel to the air mass by the middle of the week. The relatively milder air may be offset by strong and gusty winds blowing from the southwest Thursday in advance of our next weather maker. Some concern will be there for blowing and drifting snow of the existing snow pack Thursday for the open country.

Monitoring Late Week…Forecast models continue to suggest we’ll deal with our next winter weather maker towards late week, but we caution timing and the precise track of the low pressure system will have to be fine tuned as we go through the week. At this extremely early stage in the game, it does appear as if an accumulating snow will occur with this system in the Friday-Saturday time period. Stay tuned.

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/09/another-bitterly-cold-air-mass/

Feb 08

A Snowy Weekend On Tap

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow
February 8, 2014

Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.

5/ 24	16/ 28	-1/ 16	– 9/ 12	– 3/ 26	8/ 34	23/ 33
0.50”	1-2″	0.00”	0.00”	0.00”	Dusting”	1”

Forecast Updated 02.08.14 @ 8:49a

Weekend Snow…While we’re not looking at a significant storm system this weekend, we’ll deal with waves of accumulating snow through the period. A period of light snow will continue today, especially through early afternoon and then we’ll note renewed snow developing to our west this evening. This area of snow is in response to additional upper level energy moving off the Rockies and will slide into central Indiana late tonight into Sunday. Finally, there’s the chance portions of central and south-central Indiana see a third wave of light snow Sunday night into early Monday morning. By the time all is said and done, we’re anticipating 1.5″ to 2″ of snow this weekend for most, with a few 3″ reports where snow persists. It’ll be a cold weekend, but nothing as bitter as the past few days have been.

Another Arctic Blast…A sprawling arctic high will settle into the Ohio Valley to open the work week. This will supply dry weather, but yet another bitterly cold air mass. We’ll note below zero overnight lows and highs only in the teens under mostly clear conditions.

Some Questions Around Late Week…Model data is in disagreement with the handling of the southern and northern streams of the jet late next week. As of now, we’re siding with a “middle of the road” approach and introducing snow showers into your forecast Thursday into Friday. The possibilities range anywhere from an accumulating snow event to dry skies with moderating temperatures. Stay tuned.

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/08/a-snowy-weekend-on-tap/

Feb 07

More Weekend Snow Talk…

Filed under Forecast Discussion, NAM Model, snow
February 7, 2014

We’re still dealing with some questions that will have to be sorted out for the weekend’s snow. Latest high resolution data suggests we may see a couple of waves of accumulating snow cross the state this weekend. Namely, we’re focused on late Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Scattered snow showers will fall during the day Saturday, but shouldn’t be a big deal and won’t impact everyone.

It’s a tough and challenging pattern we’re in over the next 60 hours and forecast models will continue to struggle with handling upper level energy as it ejects off the Rockies and heads east. While our initial idea of a more organized, robust, storm system won’t come to fruition, it’s certainly possible some central Indiana neighborhoods deal with a “few” inches of fresh snow by Monday morning. It’ll be important to stay tuned to latest forecasts this weekend as what may seem to be a rather harmless inch, or so, of snow could pile up to the tune of 2″-5″ for some areas should latest high resolution model data, hot off the press, come to fruition.

Case in point, the latest high resolution NAM model, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics, paints a couple of stripes of snow across central Indiana and seems to have a pretty good handle on the evolution of things over the next 48-60 hours. It should be noted that not all model data suggests accumulating snow is ahead this weekend. THAT SAID, many times, in similar weather patterns, the high resolution data performed better. We’ll fine tune things and have a fresh updated 7-Day forecast available to you in the morning. Make it a great night!

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/07/more-weekend-snow-talk/

Feb 06

Bitterly Cold And Snowy Pattern Rolls Along…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow
February 6, 2014

Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.

-5/ 14	9/ 24	15/ 24	2/ 15	– 5/ 16	9/ 26	15/ 28
0.00”	1”-2”	1”	0.00”	0.00”	1”	1”

Forecast Updated: 02.07.14 @ 8:07a

Frigid Close To The Work Week…Arctic high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley as we close out the work week. While this will lead to a mostly sunny sky, downright frigid conditions can be expected. The day will dawn with temperatures solidly below zero and include wind chill values as cold as 30 degrees below- a painfully cold start to the day, needless to say.

Watching A Weekend Snow Maker…We continue to keep a close eye on the weekend as another round of accumulating snow waits on deck. Questions remain as to just how much snow accumulates and while model data continues to suggest we’re only looking at a light, 1-3″, weekend snow event at the moment, the chance is still there that modeling begins to trend a little more “robust” with upper level energy as it crosses the Ohio Valley. High snow ratios will be at play here, meaning we’ll squeeze out more than the usual 1″ of snow for every 10th of an inch of liquid. We bracket Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as the best chance of accumulating snow, but note this timing could change as we move through the next 24 hours. Stay tuned.

Weekend Snow Bookended By A Bitter Feel…A fresh blast of bitterly cold air will pour into the Ohio Valley and Mid West region to kick off the new work week. Temperatures will average more than 20 degrees colder than seasonal levels to begin the new work week and feature at least one, if not two, night(s) below zero. The brutally cold, snowy winter of 2013-2014 just keeps on keeping on…

Watching The Southern Stream…Model data is really struggling in the longer term and it has to do with how each respected model set handles energy in the southern and northern branch of the jet stream. We’re taking a “middle of the line” approach for now, including chances of snow the middle of next week.

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

twic

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/06/bitterly-cold-and-snowy-pattern-rolls-along/

Feb 05

Accumulating Snow Isn’t Finished

Filed under Forecast, snow, Winter Storm
February 5, 2014

Good morning! After a night complete with impressive snow totals, lightning and thunder reported downtown shortly after 6am, and significant drifting in the open country, things have “calmed” as of this post. That said, the accumulating snow isn’t finished and will rotate back into central Indiana by late morning.

We think an additional 1-2″ of snow will fall with the highlighted area of snow below as it tracks east-northeast. This snow is courtesy of the upper level low moving through the region. Our storm total here at IndyWx.com HQ- 5 miles northwest of Zionsville is at 8.6″ so far.

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/05/accumulating-snow-isnt-finished/

Feb 04

Major Winter Storm Underway

Filed under Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow, Winter Storm
February 4, 2014

11:00p update

Snowfall has been falling to “beat the band” the past couple hours across central Indiana. Just within the past 54 minutes we’ve added 1.2″ here at IndyWx.com HQ in southeast Boone County. Storm totals thus far are approaching 7″ as of this report.

While you’ll note the drier push of air invading portions of south-central Indiana, it’s likely accumulating snow continues across central Indiana, especially from the I-70 corridor and points north, becoming more widespread and growing in intensity yet again during the overnight. The culprit? The highlighted upper low which will “carry” accumulating snow east through the night into Wednesday…

6:00p update

A major winter storm is underway and currently producing snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour across most of central Indiana. We already have snowfall reports of 4-5″ coming in and those numbers will grow deeper and expand as we progress through the night.

This is a widespread winter storm and impacting a huge chunk of territory. Here’s a look at the radar at 6:30, via Intellicast:

Notice the moisture connection with the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture-rich air continues to stream north into the cold air mass in place and resulting in extreme snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour…these will continue through the evening before intensity improves late tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has had to issue a mesoscale discussion to account for the heavy snow ratios. Additionally, don’t be shocked if you hear a rumble or two of thunder tonight in the heavier snow bands.

As we move forward, the dry slot, common with a mature cyclone, and discussed here originally Sunday will move northeast and result in a break in the snow across the region towards the 11 o’clock hour from the southwest.

That said, snow will “fill” back in across central Indiana early Wednesday morning and produce additional accumulations.

Much more later!

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/04/major-winter-storm-underway/

Feb 03

Here We Go Again…

Filed under Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, NAM Model, snow, Windy, Winter Storm
February 3, 2014

Yet another winter storm is bearing down on the region and will promise a snowy time of things here Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

Surface low pressure will begin to organize over the lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday morning and move northeast…eventually into PA before a secondary low takes over off the Northeast coast Wednesday. We like our track of the storm below.

This will really be the first storm that’s tapped into Gulf of Mexico moisture since the major winter storm that pounded our area early last month. Moisture will be plentiful with this system and, when combined with the cold air, will lead to significant snow accumulation for most of central Indiana, with significant ice accumulation expected downstate across southern sections of Indiana.

We think snow begins to develop across central Indiana as early as early to mid afternoon Tuesday, but the heaviest of the snow will fall Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday. In fact, snowfall rates may approach 1″ per hour for a time Tuesday night, especially where the heavy snow bands set up. Just exactly where do these heavy bands of snow develop? It’s a very tough call, but thinking at this juncture would suggest mainly north of Indianapolis. Additionally, latest data suggests a thundersnow report or two may occur tomorrow night within the heavy snow bands. Snow will begin to taper from west to east Wednesday morning, but the open country will have to deal with some blowing and drifting through the day Wednesday as the low departs northeast. We’ll then enjoy a dry and cold couple of days as arctic high pressure builds in before our next winter storm develops for the weekend…

We forecast widespread 4-8″ (localized 8″+ totals possible within convective heavy snow bands) of snow to accumulate by the time all is said and done across central Indiana and our call right now is for the greatest chance of those 8″ reports to fall within the highlighted zone below.

Quick Bullet Point Thoughts:

Snow develops towards 3-4pm Tuesday.
Heaviest snow falls Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday.
4-8″ of snowfall expected across central Indiana, with heaviest totals from Indy’s northern suburbs and points north. Locally heavier totals can be expected within the heavier convective snow bands.
Significant ice accumulation of 0.25″, or greater, possible down state
Placement of embedded heavy snow bands will have to be monitored closely Tuesday night and may be accompanied by thunder and lightning.
Snow begins to diminish Wednesday morning, but blowing and drifting continues through the day.

The dry slot, originally mentioned here Sunday, will likely impact southern and south-central Indiana late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will essentially shut off the accumulating snow threat south of I-70 during the wee morning hours Wednesday with some light freezing rain and/ or freezing drizzle glazing over the snow that falls. Meanwhile, accumulating snow will begin to taper Wednesday morning north of I-70. The latest high resolution NAM simulated radar, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics, shows this well.

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/03/here-we-go-again/

Category: snow

Interested in past weather?