Jan 09
A strong winter storm system will impact a good chunk of the country between today and Sunday morning. More specific to Indiana, rain will begin to overspread the region (initially…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/09/video-walking-through-the-specific-details-of-our-incoming-strong-storm/
Jan 06
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/06/gearing-up-for-a-busy-late-week-weekend/
Dec 14
Type: Impactful Wintry Weather
What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation
When: Sunday evening through Monday
Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s, falling into the lower to middle 20s Monday night
Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required.
Sunday will feature a thickening and lowering cloud deck through the afternoon hours and this foretells what’s to come by evening. An expanding area of snow will overspread southern Indiana early evening and push into central/ north-central Indiana by mid-to-late evening, continuing into Sunday night. This will be the 1st of 2 rounds of wintry precipitation that will likely result in “plowable” accumulations for a good chunk of central Indiana come Monday evening. There will likely be a “lull” in the wintry precipitation Monday morning, but we anticipate widespread wintry precipitation to return late morning through the afternoon and into the evening hours Monday. In and around Indianapolis and points north, this 2nd round of precipitation should also primarily take the form of snow, but we think southern Indiana will have a period of sleet and potentially a cold rain across far southern Indiana before transitioning back to snow before ending. Because of this, we think southern Indiana will fall into the 1″ to 3″ range for storm totals. Much colder air will pour into the state Monday evening as winds shift to the north/ northwest and gust up to 25 MPH. Snow will pull out of the state from west to east late Monday night. Due to the timing of this storm, big impacts are expected to the morning and evening rush hours Monday.
Confidence: High
Next Update: 2:30p Saturday
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/14/client-brief-snow-storm-inbound-sunday-evening-monday/
Dec 13
After a dry and cold Saturday, weather will begin to deteriorate Sunday evening. We think snow will overspread central Indiana Sunday evening into Sunday night before transitioning to a wintry…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/13/snow-arrives-sunday-evening-latest-thoughts-on-monday-and-beyond/
Dec 13
Type: Impactful Winter Weather
What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation
When: Sunday evening through Monday
Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s
Wind: East 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the north Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal
We continue to closely monitor the potential of an impactful winter weather maker Sunday evening through Monday. Initially, we think “overrunning” precipitation will overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. This should fall in the form of snow for most. As the surface low draws closer, precipitation will increase in intensity Sunday night into the day Monday. The all-important track of the surface low appears to take a path from western Arkansas Sunday night, along the Ohio River Monday morning and into western Pennsylvania by Monday night. This is a favorable track for accumulating snow across portions of the state. The map above features our “ridiculously” early idea on best chances where the heavier snowfall will occur (shoveable totals seem like a good bet for places in and around Indianapolis and points north). Downstate, enough warmer air should get pulled into the system for a time Sunday night into Monday morning that a wintry mix of precipitation (sleet, snow, and rain) is expected to cut down snowfall totals. As the storm pulls up to our northeast, gusty northerly winds will develop with lingering snow showers in Monday night, along with colder conditions.
We’ll have an updated video post later this evening and will keep close eyes on data not only today, but straight through the weekend.
Confidence: Medium-High
Next Update: This evening (Video)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/13/client-brief-impactful-winter-weather-event-sunday-evening-through-monday/
Nov 23
Type: Impactful Winter Weather
What: Accumulating wet snow
When: This afternoon into early evening
Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s early afternoon to around 30° by late evening.
Wind: North 20-25 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal
Pavement Impacts: Salting required. Plowing will also likely be needed across east-central Indiana.
There’s an old saying in the weather business of an “upper low being a weatherman’s foe.” That’s particularly true early and late in the season due to the added complexities of marginally cold air typically available. As we discussed over the past week, the dynamics and cold air these type of systems can manufacture also creates added headache. Many instances these kind of systems result in essentially a “now cast” scenario. With all of that said, our confidence is increasing after another look at overnight model runs to put out the snowfall forecast above. Rain will overspread central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon, however, as the precipitation rates increase, we’ll notice a transition to wet snow this afternoon into the evening. There could also be a brief wintry mix, including sleet, during the transition to wet snow. Banding features will likely develop late afternoon into early evening leading to heavier snowfall across east-central parts of the state where we have the 1″ to 3″ snowfall forecast up. For the remainder of central Indiana, most should be closer to a coating with a few 1″ reports. The snow will exit even far eastern areas before midnight.
Confidence: Medium
Next Update: This afternoon
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/23/client-brief-wet-snow-develops-this-afternoon-into-the-evening/
Nov 17
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/17/video-week-ahead-outlook-greenland-block-leads-to-an-interesting-pattern-around-thanksgiving/
Feb 24
Is another damaging wind event on the horizon next weekend?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/24/sunday-morning-video-repeat-next-weekend/
Feb 19
Brief: Heavy Snow & Sleet
Forecaster: McMillan
What: Heavy Snow & Sleet
When: 12a to 8a Wednesday
Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s
Wind: E 15-25 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate before mixing with sleet
The setup remains the same as a warm front lifts north during the overnight. Copious amounts of moisture will arrive into central Indiana and with cold air in place, a period of moderate to heavy snow will develop. Timing into the city, itself, should come around, or just before, midnight. While the snow will be of the heavy, wet variety, gusty easterly winds will result in blowing and drifting snow (especially on north-south roadways) before precipitation transitions to sleet. We’ve “beefed” our accumulation forecast up to include a 3″ to 5″ band across east-central Indiana, including Indianapolis, as short-term guidance is indicating a period of significant “forcing” (or lift in the atmosphere) that will lead to heavy snowfall rates before the transition to sleet. A couple of hours with snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour will likely be observed in that 1a to 3a window. Precipitation will transition to sleet and a period of freezing rain between 3a and 5a from south to north, before turning to all rain in the city before sunrise. Further north, a transition to rain won’t be noticed until after 8a, but the majority of precipitation will likely be over with by that point (just lingering drizzle and fog).
Confidence: High
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/all-access-client-brief-plowable-snow-moves-in-overnight/
Feb 19
A “thump” of sleet and snow will give way to strong storm potential Saturday. Looking ahead, winter appears to make a comeback during the 1st half of March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/tuesday-morning-video-update-from-snow-to-storms-and-looking-ahead-to-march/