Category: Sleet

Mar 15

Reviewing Saturday’s Snow And Looking Ahead To Another Busy Week…

Snow moved in during the predawn hours Saturday across north-central Indiana before encompassing more of central Indiana as the morning progressed. By mid-late morning, an incredibly intense band (2″+/ hour snowfall rates) set-up shop just north of Indianapolis. This was a byproduct of strong frontogenesis and dynamic cooling. Speaking of frontogenesis, if interested, here’s a fantastic article that can explain things further.

The end result was an “overachieving” wet snow event across north-central Indiana, including as far south as the northern Indianapolis ‘burbs. Sleet made it as far south as Greenwood before precipitation ended Saturday evening.

While the placement of our accumulating snow zone was a good one, amounts of 4″ to 5″ were reported throughout the southern half of this 1″ to 2″ forecast zone. This morning’s snowfall analysis shows the narrow, but moderate stripe of wet snow through the state:

As the sun rises and clouds begin to depart, that snowpack is showing up on this morning’s visible satellite image.

Officially, Indianapolis recorded 1.2″ Saturday, but as noted above, areas just north received as much as 4″ to 5″. With that increasing March sunshine today, snow will be all but a distant memory by later this afternoon. The average high for March 15th is in the lower 50s. Most will be 5° to 7° colder than that today with mid 40s for most.

As we turn the page and look ahead to what the remainder of the week will provide, a weak cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley Monday night and Tuesday. This will be a moisture-starved frontal passage with only scattered, light showers anticipated tomorrow evening/ early Tuesday.

Things then turn much more unsettled as we head into the second half of the week. An initial wave of moisture will result in a period of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday. This will be followed up with a round of thunderstorms Thursday PM into early Friday morning. Some of these storms may reach strong to severe levels and will require us to continue to closely monitor things throughout the week.

Widespread 2″ to 2.5″+ rainfall amounts can be expected by the time everything winds down Friday afternoon. Most of that will fall Wednesday and Thursday night/ Friday morning.

We’ll dry out next weekend, but shift to a much colder time of things (lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s). This will come as a rather rude shock after highs Thursday flirt with the 65° to 70° mark.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/15/reviewing-saturdays-snow-and-looking-ahead-to-another-busy-week/

Feb 12

VIDEO: Heavy Snow Builds In This Afternoon; Arctic Front Hits Tomorrow…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/12/video-heavy-snow-builds-in-this-afternoon-arctic-front-hits-tomorrow/

Feb 11

Client Brief: Time To Gas Up The Snow Plows…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A winter storm will impact the Ohio Valley through the 2nd half of the work week.

What: Accumulating snow and sleet

When: Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening

Temperatures: Lower 30s falling into the 10s by Thursday evening

Wind: Southeast 10-15 MPH Wednesday afternoon shifting to the north Wednesday night and northwest Thursday. Winds will gust 20-30 MPH Thursday evening.

Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate by Thursday evening

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing will be required

A busy 48 hours awaits for central Indiana as a winter storm begins to impact the region. Mid and high level cloudiness will continue spreading over the region this evening and give way to a lowering and thickening cloud deck overnight and Wednesday morning. This is all thanks to a developing area of low pressure over the Ark-la-tex region. This surface low will track northeast into the TN Valley Wednesday and into the central Appalachians Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Long time residents of the Hoosier state know this is a favorable track for impactful wintry weather across these parts and this will be no exception.

Moisture will begin to lift northeast during the day Wednesday and reach the I-70 corridor around or just after lunchtime. Across the southern half of Indiana, this moisture should primarily fall in the form of a cold rain (perhaps a bit of sleet initially as the precipitation moves in). However, further north, trouble will ensue. The air won’t only be colder at the surface, but the depth of cold air will be much deeper. This will result in precipitation that should predominantly fall in the form of a sleet-snow “concoction” along and north of the I-70 corridor where we think an axis of 2″ to 4″ of snow/ sleet will accumulate with this storm- including Indianapolis. Further north, less sleet is anticipated and will result in heavier snowfall totals. The northern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points north to include Lafayette, Kokomo, Logansport, Ft. Wayne, and Muncie can expect 4″ to 6″ of snow with this storm system. Most of that will fall Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with additional lighter snowfall accumulation occurring with “wrap around” snow showers and embedded squalls Thursday afternoon into evening. (The Indiana Snowbelt (you know who you are :-)) can expect additional heavier snow accumulation, courtesy of lake effect).

A brief, but potent shot of arctic air will pour into the region Thursday afternoon and set us up for widespread single digits by Friday morning, including the threat of some sub-zero temperatures where the heaviest snowpack is laid down.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Wednesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/11/client-brief-time-to-gas-up-the-snow-plows/

Feb 06

Long Range Update: Latest EPO/ MJO Implications…

Before we dig into the late-February pattern, there’s no let-up in sight with respect to our current active weather pattern. Just next week alone, we’re tracking (3) systems:

I. Sunday

II. Wednesday

III. Thursday-Friday

This is all part of the big battle taking place between a persistent southeast ridge and western trough. The tight thermal gradient between these features will help “fuel” continued active times, and above average precipitation next week. As mentioned this morning, at times we’ll have to deal with bouts of moderate-heavy rain, and at others, sleet, snow, and freezing rain.

An active weather pattern will continue as the ‘mean’ storm track cuts right through the Ohio Valley next week.

Looking ahead, we continue to build our longer range forecast by using “base ingredients” that feature a 50-50 split of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and EPO (East Pacific Oscillation).

The MJO maintains a warm look, rolling things into Phase 5-6 over the next few weeks.

As you know by now, these are warm phases- especially across the eastern portion of the country.

The “saving grace” for fans of at least being on the playing field for a chance of wintry weather in such warm MJO phases is the negative EPO. There’s great model agreement that this negative EPO will continue into the middle part of the month and this will keep us on our toes for wintry implications as storms track through the region. Conversely, there’s reason to buy into a “blow torch” regime to close the month, as the EPO flips positive and combines with the Phase 5-6 of the MJO.

To no surprise, given the above, we see the new European Weeklies showing a warming trend (after the fight over the upcoming week) for late-February.

The JMA Weeklies from this morning (for the Weeks 3-4 time frame) would agree.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/06/long-range-update-latest-epo-mjo-implications/

Feb 05

VIDEO: Short-Term Update Tonight Through Saturday- Ice Gives Way To Snow…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/05/video-short-term-update-tonight-through-saturday-ice-gives-way-to-snow/

Feb 05

Client Brief: Conditions Deteriorate By Late Afternoon…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A wintry mix of sleet and snow will arrive into central IN between 4p and 5p.

What: Accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain

When: This evening and Thursday morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to around 30°

Wind: Northeast 10 to 20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate across northern Indiana

Pavement Impacts: Salting/ plowing also will be required in the “snow zone.”

A surface wave will move from the middle MS River Valley into the TN and lower Ohio Valley region tonight and Thursday morning. Eventually this system will push into the Mid-Atlantic states Friday.

After a mostly dry daytime, precipitation will become more widespread by late afternoon and early evening. More specifically, we anticipate a wintry mix of sleet and snow to move into Indianapolis and a greater chunk of central Indiana between 4p and 5p. Waves of moisture will continue to impact the region into tonight, but as warmer air aloft moves overhead, precipitation is expected to transition to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain during this time frame. Up to 2 tenths of an inch of glaze is possible across the I-70 corridor this evening. We recommend avoiding travel if possible tonight across central Indiana with icy spots expected to develop on area roadways. Across most of central Indiana, snow and sleet accumulation should remain less than 1″. Further north, precipitation will remain predominantly snow with 2″ to 4″ expected.

Colder air aloft will return Thursday allowing precipitation to transition back to light snow across central Indiana. As upper level support swings through the state, snow should become more widespread Thursday night into Friday morning with additional light accumulation possible.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/05/client-brief-conditions-deteriorate-by-late-afternoon/

Feb 04

VIDEO: Fresh Data In On Wednesday Night; New Thoughts On This Weekend’s Accumulating Snow Threat…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/04/video-fresh-data-in-on-wednesday-night-new-thoughts-on-this-weekends-accumulating-snow-threat/

Feb 04

VIDEO: Detailed Look At Multiple Rounds Of Wintry Precipitation, Including An Icy Set-Up Tomorrow Evening…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/04/video-detailed-look-at-multiple-rounds-of-wintry-precipitation-including-an-icy-set-up-tomorrow-evening/

Feb 03

Client Brief: Multiple Rounds Of Wintry Precipitation Expected Tuesday Night-Thursday Night…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A wintry mix will begin to impact parts of central IN as early as Tuesday evening.

What: Potential of accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain

When: Multiple rounds:

I. Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning

II. Wednesday evening through Thursday evening

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: Northeast 20 to 30 MPH and gusty Tuesday night, shifting to the north, northwest 5 to 15 MPH Wednesday night into Thursday.

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent

Pavement Impacts: Salting/ plowing also will likely be required in the “snow zone.”

A complex weather pattern will result in a multitude of precipitation types across the state in the Tuesday night through Thursday night time period. Here’s our early thinking where we think the various types of precipitation setup shop:

As we time things out, rain is expected to overspread most of the state Tuesday morning. Heaviest and most concentrated rainfall should occur along and south of the I-70 corridor. A downright balmy start to the day will trend significantly colder (especially around and after lunchtime). As cold air continues to ooze south, renewed precipitation is expected to break out Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, courtesy of a wave moving along the cold front. With colder air in place, this precipitation is expected to primarily fall in the form of sleet and freezing rain through the “heart” of central Indiana with snow across northern parts of the state. With temperatures falling below freezing Tuesday evening, slick spots on area roadways are anticipated to develop- even despite the recent warm weather of the past couple of days.

Most of the daytime should feature a relative “lull” in the precipitation with nearly steady temperatures across central and northern Indiana (around or just below freezing). The briefly quiet times will give way to another round of more widespread and heavier precipitation Wednesday evening, continuing into the day Thursday as a stronger wave of low pressure moves northeast from northern MS, along the Ohio River, and into eastern Ohio. Like what we’ll experience tomorrow evening, the precipitation forms will vary significantly based on your locale. We think another round of sleet (perhaps some freezing rain across south-central Indiana) will dominate across central Indiana, with primarily snow across northern Indiana. Within the highlighted “snow zone,” amounts of 3″ to 6″ certainly seem possible by the time all is said and done Thursday evening.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/03/client-brief-multiple-rounds-of-wintry-precipitation-expected-tuesday-night-thursday-night/

Feb 03

VIDEO: Timing Out When The Area May Be Impacted By More Significant Wintry Precipitation…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/03/video-timing-out-when-the-area-may-be-impacted-by-more-significant-wintry-precipitation/

IndyWx.com