1.) All of a sudden what was a warm March has revered big time. Officially, Indianapolis is running close to 1° below normal on the month and will continue to fall further once today’s data is factored in. Always fun to see Mother Nature “balance” things out.
2.) It’s another cold start to the day with many central Indiana neighborhoods in the teens and hard freezes extending south into Florida this morning.
3.) Sunshine can be expected today and after the frigid beginning, a moderating trend will begin this afternoon that will send temperatures into the lower to middle 40s. That’s still close to 10° below average for daytime highs, but will feel much better than what we’ve been dealing with over the past several days. Add in that high March sun angle and it’ll actually be a very pleasant afternoon.
4.) Unfortunately, we won’t hang on to the sunshine for St. Patrick’s Day. A warm front will lift northeast through the region during the overnight and lead to an increase in clouds by evening. A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will impact central IN predawn Friday morning before transitioning to showers mid-to-late morning. “Light” is the key word here with models suggesting less than 0.20″ total. By Friday afternoon we’re back to dry times.
5.) We’ll turn a touch cooler Saturday and it’ll be a blustery day, as well. A couple of early snow showers are possible across east and northeast portions of the state before afternoon sunshine returns. High pressure settles in overhead Saturday evening and will set up a nice second half of the weekend- lots of sunshine and milder temperatures by Sunday (lower 50s).
6.) Looking ahead, the quiet times will be hard to come by as we progress through the latter portions of the month. Both the new JMA Weeklies (shown below) and other ensemble guidance is bullish on a wetter than average close to the month, and also one that features wild temperature swings. Thoughts shift back to severe prospects, especially for our friends to our south and the potential of backlash wet snow showers in the colder air. From a temperature perspective, it’s a pattern that will be very “transient” with no true long-lasting periods of significant warmth, or cold- relative to average.
The heavy, dense, arctic air will win out as evening turns into nighttime. Indianapolis is back to the freezing mark around 6p and into the 20s by 9p.
Temperatures will continue to fall through the day Sunday and by Monday morning central Indiana will be in the single digits, with below zero readings across northern parts of the state.
Wind chill values of 10 to 20 degrees below zero will be common by Sunday night into Monday morning across central Indiana.
Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue across the region into the early afternoon, but begin to expand in coverage and intensity once again by evening. Note the area of freezing rain expand across central IN, including Indianapolis, between 4p and 7p.
Freezing rain will eventually begin to mix with sleet and eventually transition to light snow during the overnight from northwest to southeast. A coating of snow to less than 1″ is a good bet on the new icy glaze that develops tonight.