Category: Short term update

May 16

Short-Term Update: Keeping An Eye On Severe Potential This Evening-Tonight…

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 7p.


Greatest concern has to do with the Southwest flank of the thunderstorm complex that will continue to push southeast into the evening hours. (This is the same complex of storms that moved through MN and WI earlier this morning).

As we look at the ingredients needed for severe weather, there’s reason to believe this complex will hold together, including occasionally producing severe weather (large hail and damaging winds remain the biggest concerns) into portions of central Indiana by early to mid evening (5p-8p time frame).

This shouldn’t have any impact on another, more widespread, complex of storms that will initiate well to our north late tonight before rumbling south into central Indiana around, or just after, midnight in a weakening state…

More later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/16/short-term-update-keeping-an-eye-on-severe-potential-this-evening-tonight/

May 08

Short-Term Video: Thursday Storms And Weekend Weather Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/08/short-term-video-thursday-storms-and-weekend-weather-update/

Mar 12

VIDEO: Concern Is Increasing For The Potential Of Severe Weather Thursday; Strong Wind Event On Deck…

Concern is growing for the potential of severe weather Thursday. A strong and potentially damaging wind event is still on the table Wednesday night through Thursday, as well…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/12/video-concern-is-increasing-for-the-potential-of-severe-weather-thursday-strong-wind-event-on-deck/

Mar 23

Settling In From The Road: Quick Review Of Latest Thoughts…

I apologize for not having an update out sooner, but have been on the road all day and just getting settled in.  With that said, I’ve been keeping up-to-date with the latest model data and really have no significant changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast:

Latest highlights:

  • A cold rain will overspread the state during the overnight
  • Expect rain to change to wet snow during the pre-dawn hours for Indianapolis and surrounding areas
  • Heavy wet snow will continue through the morning and afternoon and where heaviest bands set up, snowfall rates of 1″+ per hour can be anticipated
  • Winds will gust to 30 MPH+ into the evening hours Saturday
  • Snow will diminish from northwest to southeast Saturday evening
  • As we always say, late March snow events always bring surprises and while bust potential is present (both on the high and low side on the going forecast), this is our best idea and it’ll be fun to watch things unfold.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/03/23/settling-in-from-the-road-quick-review-of-latest-thoughts/

Aug 05

Wednesday Morning Update…

Good morning and happy Wednesday! Forecast models continue to provide a bit of a headache concerning our developing weather situation, but here’s our best take moving forward: The morning is…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/05/wednesday-morning-update/

Jun 10

Tuesday Evening Video Update!

Good evening and thank you for logging onto IndyWx.com!  Tonight’s video covers the unsettled time of things tonight into Wednesday morning as low pressure continues to have a hold on our area’s weather.  Also, we talk long range weather and give you an idea of what you can expect for the rest of the month of June, temperature-wise!  While we didn’t get into the precipitation side of things in tonight’s video for late month, I will say it continues to look very unsettled with above average rainfall anticipated to wrap up the month of June.  Anywhere from an additional 3-5″ of rain is possible as we go through the rest of the month here across central Indiana.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/10/tuesday-evening-video-update/

Jun 09

Soaking Rain Ahead Tuesday Into Wednesday.

We still think most of today is dry and while we’re off to a cloudy start, the latest scan of the visible satellite image would suggest some brightening of the sky is a good bet from time to time late morning into the afternoon.

20140609_1145_sm_EVV_vis

Enjoy whatever sunshine you see today, as clouds begin to lower and thicken this evening and widespread rain won’t be far behind.  The simulated radar shows rain and embedded thunder will be rather widespread Tuesday.

6am Tuesday future radar product

6am Tuesday future radar product

11a Tuesday future radar product

11a Tuesday future radar product

2a Wednesday future radar product

2a Wednesday future radar product

Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2″ will be a good bet between Tuesday and Wednesday and we feel the short-term, high resolution, NAM forecast model has a good handle on the distribution of precipitation.  There will be locally heavier totals.

hires_t_precip_ky_20

We’ll have your complete 7-day forecast updated and posted later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/09/soaking-rain-ahead-tuesday-into-wednesday/

Feb 17

Messy Afternoon Commute Ahead

Latest thinking around our wintry mess due in here this afternoon places a heavier emphasis on sleet and freezing rain for central Indiana, with accumulating snow still a possibility, especially north of Indianapolis.

Overnight model data trended warmer (especially aloft) and latest high resolution, short-term, data continues that trend this morning.  While an initial push of moisture has led to snow and sleet reports already this morning, it’s around 1 o’clock when we think the true slug of moisture reaches the city, itself.  While snow can’t completely be ruled out, I’m more concerned with sleet and freezing rain potential for Indianapolis.

Officially, we’re calling for 1″ of snow/ sleet with up to two tenths of freezing rain for the city, itself.  Further north, a band of 1-3″ of snow/ sleet can be expected with only light freezing rain.  From Benton County over to Wells County, we anticipate mostly a snow event with 3-6″ of snow expected.

All of that said, we leave you with this humble disclaimer; this is easily the most difficult forecast we’ve had to make this winter.  Several factors will come into play to ultimately determine the precise precipitation zones, including track and strength of the low, precipitation rates, amount of evaporative cooling, etc.  This is a low confidence forecast when it comes to precipitation types, but our best idea is below for your viewing pleasure.  Needless to say, regardless of what type of precipitation you see this afternoon, prepare for another nasty afternoon and evening commute.  Stay safe.

UPDATED021714

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/17/messy-afternoon-commute-ahead/

Jan 30

Complicated And Complex…

If you have travel plans across central Indiana Friday and Friday night, please make sure you leave plenty of time to get to your destination and prepare for a variety of precipitation types.  In fact, it’s entirely possible (depending on what time of day you’re traveling) that you have to deal with rain across south-central Indiana and snow by the time you arrive into the northern Indianapolis suburbs, complete with an icy mixture “in between.”

Digging through the weather playbook for Friday into Saturday:

A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, allowing a wind shift out of the north to arrive into the city in the early to mid morning Friday. We’ll have to be in “nowcast” mode Friday to determine just exactly how far south the front makes it as this will go a long way into determining precipitation types across central Indiana.

Ultimately, a wave of low pressure will move along the front Saturday, which will help milder air push north and result in a changeover from a wintry mix to all rain during the majority of the day Saturday. In fact, there’s the chance portions of central Indiana may not have to deal with much, if any, precipitation through the majority of the day Saturday- especially south.  Before that, however, we’ll have to deal with a wide variety of wintry precipitation issues Friday and Friday night…  Warmer low level air will be drawn northward and overrun the colder air at the surface Friday and Friday night.  What will initially be a period of snow Friday will transition to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain Friday night and all rain Saturday.  That said, we note the milder push will be brief, and colder air will pour back into the region on gusty northwest winds Saturday night. This may result in a brief period of light snow Saturday night (not a big deal).

We think the latest high-resolution, short-term, NAM model (courtesy from the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics model suite) has a very good handle on accumulation ideas Friday and Saturday and is in best agreement with our analysis laid out above.  This is a look at forecast snow accumulation between now and Saturday night, but we also note there will be some light sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of any snow that falls Friday. As far as that snow goes, we think a 1-2″ band is laid down from the city and points north, increasing further as you travel into north-central and northern Indiana.

hires_snow_acc_indy_18

 

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/30/as-promised-complicated-and-complex/

Dec 14

Period Of Heavy Snow Coming

Latest short-term, high resolution, models are showing what’s taking shape nicely this morning. We think the city and points north will undergo a period of moderate to heavy snow from late morning into the early afternoon hours.

Within the highlighted area, we think snowfall rates will approach 1″ per hour between 10a-2p.  Yes, within that (4) hour time period, don’t be surprised if a few reports come in with 3-4 additional inches of snow atop what’s already fallen, particularly across the northern half of the highlighted area.

HVYSnow

Here’s a look at the latest HRRR model simulated radar showing the swath of moderate to heavy snow coming over the next few hours.  Again, high snowfall rates will make plowing duties difficult so if you must travel, please take things slow.

hrrr_ref_ne_8

South-central Indiana will see dramatically less snow due to mixing issues (as forecast) and the dry slot that is arriving now.  The track of the upper low should lock moderate to heavy snow into central and north-central Indiana into the early to mid afternoon.  All of the snow will then begin to diminish and move northeast during the early to mid afternoon, as our storm system departs.  This will then allow northwest winds to strengthen and become gusty this evening, with cold air pouring back into the region.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/14/period-of-heavy-snow-coming/

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