Category Archives: Severe Weather

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 06.27.21 @ 9:42a

The upper level pattern this week will feature troughiness in the central portion of the country while a significant high pressure ridge continues to bake the Northwest with unseasonably hot, record-breaking temperatures.
Record heat will continue to bake the Northwest while unseasonably cool temperatures will be welcomed into the Front Range, southern Plains, and along the Gulf Coast.
We forecast widespread rainfall amounts between 1.5″ and 2.5″ across central IN in the upcoming 7-day period, but there will be locally heavier totals.
Well above normal precipitation can be expected ahead through the period from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes, TN Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
While ingredients aren’t in place for a widespread severe weather event, one or two cells could pulse to severe levels later this afternoon across the northern half of IN, including an isolated tornado, given the parameters.

Forecast Period: 06.27.21 through 07.04.21

A frontal boundary will remain draped across the general area through the middle part of this week. While subtle differences will remain regarding greatest concentration of shower and thunderstorm coverage each day, it’s a safe bet most of the region will see a passing shower or storm at some point each day this week. We’ll keep an eye on radar trends this afternoon for the possibility of a local severe weather warning (threat is primarily going to be centered on western and northern parts of the state). Eventually the front will get shoved south and we’ll welcome in drier, cooler air as we get ready to kickoff the long Independence Day weekend. In fact, overnight lows will likely fall into the lower 50s for some by the weekend with highs only in the low-mid 70s. Rain chances will persist Friday and Saturday before we dry things out in earnest for the holiday, itself.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Client, Independence Day, Severe Weather

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 06.20.21 @ 6:26a

The mean upper pattern in the week ahead will feature a trough across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley with the hot dome remaining in place across the Four Corners.
Temperatures will run below to well below normal across the upper Mid West south into the Southeast states this week. Meanwhile, heat will continue to bake the west.
Above normal rainfall will impact the eastern half of the country through the upcoming 7-day period.
We forecast between 1.5” and 2.5” of rain across most central IN rain gauges in the upcoming 7-day period.

Forecast Period: 06.20.21 through 06.27.21

While we’re looking at an overall wetter than normal forecast period, there will be a multi-day stretch (centered on mid week) where we’ll enjoy dry conditions. This forecast period will be highlighted by additional storm potential with a cold front passing through to open the 7-day window, followed by the potential of heavy rain and stronger storms to close things out Friday into the weekend. Tuesday through Thursday will feature unseasonably cool and pleasant conditions, including the chance of some outlying areas to fall into the upper 40s. Warmth (and humidity) will build as we approach the weekend along with storm chances. While it’s still several days out, let’s circle Friday for the chance of heavy rain and stronger storms.

No Comments AG Report, Client, Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Saturday Morning Rambles: Changes On The Horizon; Unseasonably Cool Open To July?

Updated 06.19.21 @ 7:58a (We’ll have a full video discussion posted later this morning, but here are some headlines grabbing our focus into early July). I. Tropical, Soupy Airmass Remains…

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No Comments Client, Flooding, Heavy Rain, Independence Day, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles

Client Brief: Severe Weather Event And Flash Flood Potential…

Updated 06.18.21 @ 5:37p

Type: Severe weather event

What: Severe weather event and flash flood threat

When: This afternoon through tonight

Severe Risks: Damaging wind, large hail, embedded tornado potential, flash flooding

Summary: A complex of thunderstorms to our north this morning will diminish. As a result, the cloud canopy engulfing much of the region this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies late morning and into the afternoon. Intense heat is expected this afternoon, courtesy of a southerly flow ahead of an approaching warm front and upper air disturbance. Highs will reach the lower to middle 90s this afternoon and heat indices will climb to between 100° and 105°. This heat, combined with a multitude of other ingredients: dew points into the 70s, convective available potential energy (CAPE) in excess of 4000 j/kg (suggestive of extreme instability), and steep low level lapse rates (rate of temperature change with height) all will play into what looks like a significant setup for a severe weather outbreak later this afternoon and tonight.

Initially, individual cells are likely to erupt (targeting mid to late afternoon) along an OFB (outflow boundary) across n-central Indiana. Damaging wind and large hail are the biggest concerns with these cells, but a tornado threat is also on the table in this highly unstable environment. Eventually the scattered, intense cells should congeal into more of a widespread storm complex by evening and impact most of central and southern parts of the state. Precipitable water values will be in excess of 2” and promote a flash flood risk, especially if thunderstorms back-build and train over the same communities. Should this be the case, localized rainfall amounts of 3”-4” will be a good bet. As we progress into the overnight hours, the storm complex and associated flood risk will shift downstate.

Confidence: HighN

No Comments Client, ClientBrief, Dew points, Flooding, Hail, Severe Weather, Summer, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Warm, Windy