Category: Severe Weather

Jan 02

Friday Evening Rambles; Busy Winter Pattern… 

*Your complete and updated 7-day will be posted later tonight.  As always, please click on the images below to enlarge.

1.) Early freezing rain will give way to a moderate to heavy rain event Saturday.  Widespread 1″-2″ rainfall amounts can be expected.  If traveling during the predawn hours across central Indiana, be aware for possible light glazing from freezing rain.  Forecast radar shows freezing rain potential shortly after midnight.  This should transition to all rain between 2a-4a across central Indiana, but if your travels take you north, northern parts of the state will hang on to a wintry mix a few hours longer.

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2.) We’re eyeing an accumulating snow event as a clipper system and associated arctic front blow in Monday night and Tuesday.  Still early to talk specific snow amounts, but it’s the type event that could deposit a “few” inches.  More in the days ahead.  Wind and brutal cold will accompany this snow.

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3.) Dangerous cold invades next week and reaches coldest levels Wednesday into Thursday. Wind chill values may approach 30 degrees below zero.  Definitely a dangerous scenario if you plan to be outdoors for any length of time period.

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4.) Additional wintry mischief awaits later next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/02/friday-evening-rambles-busy-winter-pattern/

Dec 23

Video Update On Rain To Snow Christmas Eve; More On The Days Ahead…

Good evening, friends!  Here’s an update on our latest thinking Christmas Eve and the coming days…. Have a great night!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/23/video-update-on-rain-to-snow-christmas-eve-more-on-the-days-ahead/

Oct 13

Stormy Times Today; Severe Weather Tonight…

It’s a wet and stormy start for many this morning. Despite some local downpours and embedded thunder, all of this morning’s storms will remain below severe levels. Periods of showers…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/13/stormy-times-today-severe-weather-tonight/

Oct 11

Cool Autumn Weekend; Severe Storm Potential Monday Night…

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Cool Autumn Weekend…The rest of today will feature mid and high level cloudiness, but dry conditions.  Cool north to northeast winds will blow and require jackets or sweaters if venturing outside for too long of a time.

Be sure to enjoy the brief dry weather Saturday as shower chances return as early as Sunday, particularly during the afternoon hours and on.  Moisture will begin to surge back north in advance of a storm system that will lead to some rough weather around these parts to open the new work week.

Monday Severe Potential…Gusty southwest winds will usher in a warmer and more humid feel of things Monday out ahead of our next strong storm system.  We continue to closely monitor the potential of severe weather Monday night into Tuesday morning and want to highlight the threat of damaging straight line wind potential embedded with a possible squall line.  Beforehand, showers and embedded thunder will be possible during the daytime Monday.

We note the GFS remains consistent on strong to severe storm potential Monday night into Tuesday morning while the European is more delayed (suggesting more of a threat during the day time Tuesday).  For now, we’re leaning more towards the GFS and we’ll have more on the early week severe threat Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet during this time, including widespread 1″-1.5″, with locally heavier totals.

Taking The More Optimistic Approach…Some forecast data wants to keep considerable cloudiness and pesky light showers around into the mid week period, but for now we’re still going with the more optimistic outlook and including drier weather along with cooler temperatures for the balance of the upcoming work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1-2″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
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We continue to highlight Monday night/ Tuesday morning for the potential of severe weather, including damaging straight line winds. Here’s what the high resolution NAM simulated radar suggests at 8p Monday local time.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/11/cool-autumn-weekend-severe-storm-potential-monday-night/

Oct 09

Carefully Watching Monday Night/ Tuesday For Storm Potential…

While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.

Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development).  Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

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A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night.  This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall.  Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.

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We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/carefully-watching-monday-night-tuesday-for-storm-potential/

Oct 09

Not The Best Of Weather To Close The Work Week…

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Not “Chamber Of Commerce” Weather…A frontal boundary will slip through the region this evening before stalling just south of Indianapolis.  An area of low pressure will move along the front Friday while chilly Canadian high pressure to our north tries to suppress things.  The battle ground will lie across central portions of the Ohio Valley.  Pack the rain gear and the cool weather attire.

Today, anticipate showers and rather gloomy conditions.  We’re not anticipating any sort of heavy rainfall across the region, but instead mostly light rain with embedded pockets of moderate rainfall.  Another push of rain will move into town Friday.  Heaviest rainfall should primarily fall along the I-70 corridor and points south Friday.  Total rainfall from today and Friday should range from 0.25″ to 0.50″ with some heavier totals possible downstate.

Not A Bad Weekend…We’ll likely get some dry time in this weekend as the region remains in between weather systems over the Saturday-Sunday period.  After a mainly dry Saturday, rain chances return Sunday.

Bigger Storm Early Next Week…A rather robust storm system will impact the region Monday night into Tuesday with heavy rain potential and the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms.  We’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the weekend and update the forecast accordingly.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 3.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″ 

John Salewicz took this stellar photo of the lunar eclipse Wednesday morning.  Thanks, John!

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Our forecast radar products show another slug of moisture aimed at a Friday AM arrival.

Our forecast radar products show another slug of moisture aimed at a Friday AM arrival.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/not-the-best-of-weather-to-close-the-work-week/

Oct 02

Periods Of Storms; BIG Push Of Chilly Air On The Way…

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Changes…BIG weather changes begin today as a warm front lifts through the region.  This will lead to a warm and windy afternoon with showers and a possible rumble of thunder arriving as early as the morning rush.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening, but we also want to note there will be plenty of dry time in between rain drops.  A bigger push of showers and thunderstorms will blow into town tonight into the wee morning hours Friday.  A couple of these storms may reach severe levels, especially for western communities.  Damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern.

Showers and thunderstorms continue Friday, but the bigger weather story will become our temperatures as a MUCH colder air mass rushes into the area Friday evening on a gusty northwest wind.  Falling temperatures can be expected through the afternoon Friday so you’ll want to be sure to pack the jacket and cold weather gear tomorrow.

Chilly Weekend…Well below normal temperatures can be expected this weekend along with unsettled conditions.  Saturday continues to look like a mostly cloudy and blustery day with periods of drizzle and/ or sprinkles.  Sunday will feature more in the way of sunshine, but caution we may also deal with widely scattered light showers.

Timing Issues…We’ll fine tune early next week once our first storm system moves through the region. As of now, we target Tuesday as the best day of showers, but timing issues abound.  More on this later.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sent in this great sunset photo on the Carmel/ Zionsville line Wednesday evening. Thanks, John!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/02/periods-of-storms-big-push-of-chilly-air-on-the-way/

Oct 01

Well-Advertised Major Changes Waiting On Deck…

Thursday will begin the major shift from relatively mild and stable weather that we’ve enjoyed for the past week and a half to one that’s drastically different, and much more resemblant of November by Saturday.

First rain drops will likely splatter on wind shields as early as the morning commute across central Indiana.

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We’ll then see a “lull” in the action through the majority of the day before more widespread showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms rumble in Thursday night into Friday morning.  Here’s a look at forecast radar Friday morning.

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The Storm Prediction Center does highlight western sections of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.  We’ll continue to monitor things closely.  Localized damaging straight line wind is the primary severe threat in the highlighted risk area.

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We also want to highlight Friday afternoon and evening for another round of showers and embedded thunder.

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Rainfall totals should reach between 1″-2″ with locally heavier amounts between the period of Thursday morning and Saturday morning.

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The rain and gusty storms will fall ahead of a strong autumn cold front that will send temperatures on a rapid downward trend come Friday night.  A deep trough will carve itself out over the eastern region Saturday and ultimately have temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast feeling November-ish by Saturday (perfect football weather, IMO).

By the way, the record low max will be in jeopardy Saturday (49 degrees, courtesy of Sean Ash) as many central Indiana communities may struggle to make it out of the 40s for highs with considerable cloudiness, pesky drizzle, and gusty winds.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready, friends!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/01/well-advertised-major-changes-waiting-on-deck/

Sep 10

Storms Intensify Coming East

The stage is set for a stormy evening across central Indiana. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Tornado Watch for all of central Indiana until 9pm. We covered…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/10/storms-intensify-coming-east/

Sep 10

Active Weather Day

A strong fall cold front will slice into an increasingly warm and muggy air mass across our region tonight. Associated surface low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region.…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/10/active-weather-day/

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