Category: Severe Weather

Oct 09

Carefully Watching Monday Night/ Tuesday For Storm Potential…

While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.

Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development).  Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

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A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night.  This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall.  Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.

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We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/carefully-watching-monday-night-tuesday-for-storm-potential/

Oct 09

Not The Best Of Weather To Close The Work Week…

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Not “Chamber Of Commerce” Weather…A frontal boundary will slip through the region this evening before stalling just south of Indianapolis.  An area of low pressure will move along the front Friday while chilly Canadian high pressure to our north tries to suppress things.  The battle ground will lie across central portions of the Ohio Valley.  Pack the rain gear and the cool weather attire.

Today, anticipate showers and rather gloomy conditions.  We’re not anticipating any sort of heavy rainfall across the region, but instead mostly light rain with embedded pockets of moderate rainfall.  Another push of rain will move into town Friday.  Heaviest rainfall should primarily fall along the I-70 corridor and points south Friday.  Total rainfall from today and Friday should range from 0.25″ to 0.50″ with some heavier totals possible downstate.

Not A Bad Weekend…We’ll likely get some dry time in this weekend as the region remains in between weather systems over the Saturday-Sunday period.  After a mainly dry Saturday, rain chances return Sunday.

Bigger Storm Early Next Week…A rather robust storm system will impact the region Monday night into Tuesday with heavy rain potential and the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms.  We’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the weekend and update the forecast accordingly.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 3.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″ 

John Salewicz took this stellar photo of the lunar eclipse Wednesday morning.  Thanks, John!

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Our forecast radar products show another slug of moisture aimed at a Friday AM arrival.

Our forecast radar products show another slug of moisture aimed at a Friday AM arrival.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/not-the-best-of-weather-to-close-the-work-week/

Oct 02

Periods Of Storms; BIG Push Of Chilly Air On The Way…

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Changes…BIG weather changes begin today as a warm front lifts through the region.  This will lead to a warm and windy afternoon with showers and a possible rumble of thunder arriving as early as the morning rush.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening, but we also want to note there will be plenty of dry time in between rain drops.  A bigger push of showers and thunderstorms will blow into town tonight into the wee morning hours Friday.  A couple of these storms may reach severe levels, especially for western communities.  Damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern.

Showers and thunderstorms continue Friday, but the bigger weather story will become our temperatures as a MUCH colder air mass rushes into the area Friday evening on a gusty northwest wind.  Falling temperatures can be expected through the afternoon Friday so you’ll want to be sure to pack the jacket and cold weather gear tomorrow.

Chilly Weekend…Well below normal temperatures can be expected this weekend along with unsettled conditions.  Saturday continues to look like a mostly cloudy and blustery day with periods of drizzle and/ or sprinkles.  Sunday will feature more in the way of sunshine, but caution we may also deal with widely scattered light showers.

Timing Issues…We’ll fine tune early next week once our first storm system moves through the region. As of now, we target Tuesday as the best day of showers, but timing issues abound.  More on this later.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sent in this great sunset photo on the Carmel/ Zionsville line Wednesday evening. Thanks, John!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/02/periods-of-storms-big-push-of-chilly-air-on-the-way/

Oct 01

Well-Advertised Major Changes Waiting On Deck…

Thursday will begin the major shift from relatively mild and stable weather that we’ve enjoyed for the past week and a half to one that’s drastically different, and much more resemblant of November by Saturday.

First rain drops will likely splatter on wind shields as early as the morning commute across central Indiana.

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We’ll then see a “lull” in the action through the majority of the day before more widespread showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms rumble in Thursday night into Friday morning.  Here’s a look at forecast radar Friday morning.

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The Storm Prediction Center does highlight western sections of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.  We’ll continue to monitor things closely.  Localized damaging straight line wind is the primary severe threat in the highlighted risk area.

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We also want to highlight Friday afternoon and evening for another round of showers and embedded thunder.

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Rainfall totals should reach between 1″-2″ with locally heavier amounts between the period of Thursday morning and Saturday morning.

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The rain and gusty storms will fall ahead of a strong autumn cold front that will send temperatures on a rapid downward trend come Friday night.  A deep trough will carve itself out over the eastern region Saturday and ultimately have temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast feeling November-ish by Saturday (perfect football weather, IMO).

By the way, the record low max will be in jeopardy Saturday (49 degrees, courtesy of Sean Ash) as many central Indiana communities may struggle to make it out of the 40s for highs with considerable cloudiness, pesky drizzle, and gusty winds.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready, friends!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/01/well-advertised-major-changes-waiting-on-deck/

Sep 10

Storms Intensify Coming East

The stage is set for a stormy evening across central Indiana. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Tornado Watch for all of central Indiana until 9pm. We covered…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/10/storms-intensify-coming-east/

Sep 10

Active Weather Day

A strong fall cold front will slice into an increasingly warm and muggy air mass across our region tonight. Associated surface low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region.…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/10/active-weather-day/

Sep 09

Increasing Storm Chances Mid Week; Turning Cool Late Week…

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Storms To Our Northwest This Morning…A complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms is moving into extreme northwest portions of the state this morning.  We have a very dry and stable air mass in place locally and these storms will weaken as they continue to sag southeast.  Most will remain rain-free today, but some light rain will be possible across northwestern and north-central portions of the state later this morning. (NOT a big deal).

Severe; Heavy Rain Threat Wednesday…A strong cold front will push into central Indiana Wednesday night. A warm and humid air mass will be in place and as the front moves through the region, widespread showers and thunderstorms will move over the area.  Locally heavy rainfall will be likely and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.  Damaging wind and hail is our biggest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.  We target Wednesday evening and nighttime for greatest chances of thunderstorms across our immediate area.

MUCH Cooler…An October-like air mass will filter into the region late week and as we go into the weekend.  A reinforcing shot of cool air will arrive Saturday with a passing shower possible.  Hope you’re ready for some true fall-like weather!

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″ – 2″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Hopefully you had a chance to see the last ‘super moon’ of the year last night.  John Salewicz and Brian Jessen caught the super moon in Zionsville (top) and Brownsburg (bottom).  Thanks, guys!

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Blow off clouds will move into central and northern portions of the state this morning as a weakening area of showers and thunderstorms pushes closer.

Blow off clouds will move into central and northern portions of the state this morning as a weakening area of showers and thunderstorms pushes closer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/09/increasing-storm-chances-mid-week-turning-cool-late-week/

Sep 08

Stormy/ Rainy Wednesday Shaping Up…

The Storm Prediction Center continues to outline our region for severe potential Wednesday. Early indications suggest we’re eyeing another evening and nighttime storm threat, but there remain questions in regards…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/08/stormy-rainy-wednesday-shaping-up/

Sep 08

Busy Weather Week…

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Beautiful Open To The Work Week…Canadian high pressure will remain in control of our weather as we open up the new work week. Look for plentiful sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures.

Humidity Builds; Severe Chances Wednesday…Tuesday will be a transition day between the cooler, drier feel from the weekend and a briefly warmer and much more humid regime for mid week.

An isolated shower is possible Tuesday, but most communities will remain rain-free.  Our focus will remain on Wednesday as a severe weather episode is possible.  A strong autumn cold front will slice into a warm, humid, and unstable air mass Wednesday afternoon and strong to severe thunderstorms will erupt.  All modes of severe weather will be in play Wednesday and we target the afternoon into the evening for the best chances of severe.  Locally heavy rainfall is also a good bet.  We’ll have more details on timing and threats as we move forward.

Unseasonably Chilly…A late October-like air mass will invade as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Jackets and sweat shirts will be needed as temperatures fall to levels more than 15 degrees below normal.  Dry and crisp air will remain in place through the weekend.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.5″ – 2″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Brian Jessen sent in this beautiful sunrise photo taken in Brownsburg early this morning.  Thanks, Brian!

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We're keeping a close eye on severe weather potential Wednesday.

We’re keeping a close eye on severe weather potential Wednesday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/08/busy-weather-week-2/

Sep 07

Nice Now, But Stormier Times Loom…

What a beautiful Sunday underway across central Indiana. We made the suggestion earlier today to get outside and watch the opening Sunday of NFL if at all possible (btw, we…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/07/nice-now-but-stormier-times-loom/

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