Category: Severe Weather

Apr 07

Warm And Stormy…

Screen Shot 2015-04-07 at 7.46.54 AMKeep The Rain Gear Handy…A stationary boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley and will serve as the focal point for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.  Some of the storms may be strong and include torrential downpours.  That said, there will be many dry hours, as well.

We shift our focus to the chance of severe weather Thursday as surface low pressure moves into the Great Lakes and swings a cold front into a warm, humid, and relatively unstable air mass locally.  As of now, damaging straight line winds and large hail are the biggest concerns, but there’s also the chance of a tornado.  Stay tuned.

After an early shower Friday, we’ll clear things out nicely to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Friday will be much cooler, but that April sun will help temperatures recover quickly Saturday.  Most of Sunday will be dry, but we’ll introduce showers Sunday evening.  This will set up a stormy open to next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 2.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/07/warm-and-stormy/

Apr 06

Unseasonably Warm, But Stormy At Times…

We’ll enjoy a very warm pattern this week (how do middle 70s sound Wednesday and Thursday)?!    The warmth will come at a price, however, as periods of showers and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/06/unseasonably-warm-but-stormy-at-times/

Apr 04

Beautiful Weekend; Stormy Week Upcoming…

Screen Shot 2015-04-04 at 11.33.18 AMBeautiful Weather This Weekend Before A Stormy Week…Timing couldn’t be more perfect!  Between the Final Four festivities today and Easter Sunday, weather conditions simply couldn’t be any better!

We’ll begin to reverse things in a rather marked fashion early next week as moisture increases.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us throughout the week, particularly Tuesday through Thursday.  Waves of stronger storms and heavy rain can be expected.

Championship Monday will feature mostly dry conditions, but clouds will be on the increase and light showers will arrive towards afternoon/ evening.

The focal point for the most significant rain and storms will center itself Tuesday through Thursday and we’ll be more detailed around any severe potential and timing as we get closer.  For now, get outside and enjoy this weather!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 2.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/04/beautiful-weekend-stormy-week-upcoming/

Apr 03

Friday Morning Thoughts…

1.) First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers go out to our neighbors to our south this morning as a serious flood situation is underway.

Unfortunately, more rain is ahead today and will include our region across central Indiana.  Waves of rain and embedded thunder will continue into the evening.

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2.) A much colder air mass will arrive this afternoon and evening along with a gusty northwest wind.  Wind chills will fall into the 20s by evening.  Eventually we’ll bottom out in the upper 20s Saturday morning.

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3.) Easter weekend will feature beautiful weather across the area, thanks to high pressure.  Though it’ll be cold Saturday morning, lots of sunshine will warm us quickly.

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4.) Wet and stormy times return next week, including multiple days of heavy rain potential and possibly strong to severe thunderstorms.  In short, a very active week is on deck.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/03/friday-morning-thoughts-2/

Apr 02

Wet And Stormy At Times…

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of central Indiana under a Slight Risk of severe weather today, and included southwestern Indiana under an enhanced risk.    While some noisy…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/02/wet-and-stormy-at-times/

Apr 01

Active Is An Understatement…

Screen Shot 2015-04-01 at 7.25.50 AMEnjoy Today; Very Busy Times Coming…Let’s get the easy and good stuff out of the way first- today will feature simply stunning weather conditions across the region.  Wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures climbing into the middle 60s after a chilly start!  Enjoy!

A warm front will lift through the state late tonight and Thursday morning. This may help ignite scattered thunderstorms early Thursday morning.  We’ll then see a “lull” in the action before additional waves of thunderstorms rumble in during the afternoon and evening.  Some of these storms may reach severe limits with hail and damaging straight line winds of greatest concern.

A secondary area of low pressure will slowly traverse the Ohio Valley Friday and deliver widespread moderate to heavy rain.  As the low scoots to our east, it’ll help pull much colder air into the area.  Temperatures will fall through the day and rain will begin to mix with wet snow Friday night.  While we won’t deal with accumulation here, areas from northern Indiana over to northern Ohio may pick up a light slushy accumulation of snow.

We’ll clear things out just in time for Saturday, but it’ll be a cool and breezy day, especially early. Most of Easter Sunday will also feature sunny and pleasant conditions, but moisture will increase late and we’ll mention the chance of showers by evening.

Early next week is back to the active regime with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.5″ – 3.5″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/01/active-is-an-understatement/

Mar 30

Warmer And Stormy Look…

We’re shifting gears into more of a spring like weather pattern over the course of the next 4-6 weeks. Things appear to get rather active and warmer than average, as…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/30/warmer-and-stormy-look/

Mar 23

A “Don’t Blink” Kinda Weather Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-03-23 at 9.47.25 PMLoaded Up…That’s exactly what the weather pattern is over the forecast period above.  Before we get into that, how about that snow and sleet Monday?!  Snow came down fast and furious Monday afternoon just north of the city and accumulated to the tune of a few inches across a strip of north-central Indiana.  Travel was impacted, as well.  Ah, spring in Indiana… 🙂

We’ll transition from the wintry times of Monday to thundery downpours later Tuesday and continuing through the mid week period.  A couple rounds of rain and thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday.  The first of which will arrive late Tuesday morning into the afternoon.  This will then be followed by a potentially noisy round of thunderstorms late Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday.  Most of the day Wednesday will feature dry conditions, along with a gusty SW breeze and much warmer conditions.  The atmosphere will prime itself for another round of heavy rain and strong to isolated severe thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.  A cold front will finally sweep through the region Thursday morning and put an end to the rain and thunder as well as usher in a much colder regime to wrap up the work week.

As mentioned above, cold will be the word as we put a wrap on the week and head into the weekend.  In fact, enough moisture and upper level energy may be present to create snow showers Friday.  Talk about a harsh reality to Wednesday’s mid 60s.  Don’t you love the weather roller coaster this time of year?!  Cold remains firmly in place Saturday though with increasing sunshine.

As we look ahead to early next week, a warm front may lift north through the region Sunday afternoon and this could spark a light shower.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″ – 2.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Trace – Dusting

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/23/a-dont-blink-kinda-weather-pattern/

Feb 15

Incredible Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-02-15 at 7.54.13 AMHope You Like Winter…Many central Indiana neighborhoods are awaking to temperatures this morning between zero and 4 degrees above.  It’s a frigid start to the day and sunshine won’t do anything to help us out as highs only manage to climb into the middle teens.

Clouds will increase this evening and tonight and snow will overspread the southern half of the state late tonight and Monday morning.  This is from the storm system we said that it was too early to write off last week and that a northern shift was certainly possible as we got closer.  Sure enough, the northward jog took place yesterday and puts places from Indianapolis and points south in play for accumulating snow Monday.  We’ll continue to look over the data today and tonight and have more specific numbers later tonight.

Yet ANOTHER surge of arctic air will slam in here by the middle of the week and snow showers/ gusty winds will precede the bitter blast.  In fact, this 3rd arctic surge looks to be the coldest yet.  Amazing stuff!

As we rumble towards next weekend, there’s yet another winter storm we’ll have to keep a watch on…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2″ – 5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/15/incredible-pattern/

Jan 31

Crippling Snow Storm For Some; Just Wet For Others.

An incredibly difficult and challenging forecast is in store for central Indiana over the course of the next 24-36 hours.  I want to get out front with this right from the get go: bust potential is high with this type set-up, as a jog 10-20 miles north or south of the surface low will mean the difference between half a foot of snow and plain cold rain.  As it stands now, and after careful consideration of every piece of data available, here’s our updated snowfall map:

SnowfallMap2115V2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I still am not sure any one piece of data is handling the interaction between the arctic high to the north and the developing low to our southwest “perfectly.”  As such, additional fine tuning will have to take place tonight.  That arctic high is powerful at nearly 1045mb.  From a meteorological standpoint, it’ll be a fascinating battle watching the fight play out.

As you can see, we’re going to be looking at a very tight thermal gradient and it, unfortunately, appears to set itself up directly over the I-70 corridor.  Precipitation type and amounts are the biggest challenge within the I-70 corridor.  Further north, confidence increases rather significantly for a crippling snow storm.  For central Indiana, this will be a very wet and heavy snow event before ending as a drier, powdery snow on the back end.  As winds increase Sunday afternoon/ evening, the heavy “paste” like snow won’t blow around as easily as it would if it was drier.  Further north the snow consistency will be drier and blowing and drifting will be severe (in the 8″-12″+ zone).

In the shorter-term, rain and a wintry mix will arrive into the region as early as early as 6-7 o’clock.

Stay tuned.  Another post will hit here late tonight (midnight-ish).  In the meantime, we’ll keep our thoughts coming at @indywx through the afternoon.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/31/crippling-snow-storm-for-some-just-wet-for-others/

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