Jun 15
Do we rid the morning convection and cloudiness to allow strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening? This morning’s video has more.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/15/video-update-stormy-for-some-this-afternoon/
Jun 10
A hot and humid weekend is in store, but we’re eyeing increasingly wet and unsettled times by the middle of next week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/10/friday-evening-video-update-5/
May 21
After a damp and chilly open to the weekend, drier air began to infiltrate the region this afternoon and led to a brighter/ warmer finish to the day. We’ll add more sunshine and tack on a few degrees to the afternoon high on Sunday. It’ll be a phenomenal weather day across central IN, thanks to high pressure. Get out and enjoy it!
Dry and sunny weather will greet us to open the new work week, along with temperatures that will approach the 80 degree mark by Tuesday. Have yard work to get caught up on? Take advantage of the early week weather.
Things will begin to change towards an unsettled regime as early as Tuesday evening/ Wednesday as the region gets into an increasingly moist southwesterly air flow.
As such, we’ll increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms in our mid week forecast. It’ll also be a much more humid feel of things (really for the first time this year) as surface dew points surge into the upper 60s to lower 70s. (In other words, “oppressive”).
Factor in PWATs (precipitable water values) zooming to 1.5″-1.8″ and the threat is there for localized heavy downpours around mid week.
Additionally, we also note the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed western sections of our forecast area in a risk of severe weather Wednesday. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
As we progress into the late week period and on into the long holiday/ race weekend, a warm, humid, and unsettled time of things is expected to continue. It’s tough to pinpoint specifics from this distance, but just keep note of the threat of thunderstorms into and through the upcoming busy weekend, along with warm (highs in the lower to middle 80s; lows in the upper 60s) and humid conditions.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/21/busy-week-ahead-turns-active-in-the-weather-department/
May 10
1.) The month of May has gotten off to a chilly start and given the period of unseasonably chilly air that looms later this week, it’s safe to say these cool anomalies will grow even cooler.
The coolest day looks to be Saturday with highs only in the mid 50s.
2.) In the shorter term, we’re keeping an eye on strong-severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening across southern and central parts of the state. Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.
Not everyone will see heavy rain amounts today, but a few neighborhoods may deal with localized flooding issues as slow moving heavy storms potentially train over communities. Where this happens, 2″+ rain totals are a good bet by midnight.
3.) Forecast models remain in a state of disagreement concerning late this weekend into early next week. The GFS is particularly bullish on the idea of wet (heavy rain threat), chilly times whereas the European is much drier (and warmer). We’ll keep an eye on things and hope for consistency this afternoon. Speaking of this afternoon, we’ll have our updated 7-day posted later today! Make it a great Tuesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/10/tuesday-morning-rambles-3/
May 09
An unsettled week ahead will feature periods of more widespread rain and stronger storms at times between now and Wednesday. We’re focused on Tuesday for the potential of strong to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/09/monday-morning-video-update-strong-storms-tuesday-much-colder-end-to-the-week/
May 06
Highlights:
Have The Sunglasses Handy Today…Today is easily the pick of the week as high pressure supplies sunshine and a cool start. With the May sun angle in place, chilly morning lows in the lower 40s will quickly rise into the lower 70s for afternoon highs.
A cold front will approach Saturday and slice into a briefly warm and humid air mass in place across the region. With highs approaching 80 and dew points surging into the lower 60s, don’t be surprised by strong to severe thunderstorms across central IN during the afternoon and evening hours.
The cold front will slip to our south for Sunday, but remain close enough to continue shower chances across central parts of the state. It’ll be a much cooler day with a north wind in play.
As we move into the new work week, we’ll continue the active and unsettled theme. While it won’t rain the entire time, expect numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms through mid week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/06/fantastic-friday-storms-return-saturday-evening/
May 01
Highlights:
Watching For Evening Storm Development…The morning has gotten off to a beautiful start across central IN, but the sunshine will likely be enough to help destabilize things just enough to assist in afternoon/ evening thunderstorm development. Additionally, a frontal boundary remains draped across the state and we’ll await a wave of low pressure to move along the front this evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with large hail and damaging straight line winds the biggest concerns. We’ll keep an eye on the radar later today.
We’ll flip the page and turn much cooler for the upcoming week. Reinforcing cool air will be accompanied by showers at times through the mid week period, but we should turn drier late week (and eventually warmer).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/01/strong-storms-this-evening-cool-open-to-may/
Apr 30
Happy Saturday all! Widespread rain and embedded thunder will overspread central IN as we progress through the morning hours. Steady rain will continue through the lunchtime hour before we see a break in widespread rains.
After a break in the rain, we’ll have to keep an eye on the potential of strong to severe storms developing this afternoon and evening (especially across southern IN). Hail and damaging winds are of greatest concern with storms that develop, but a tornado is also possible.
Another round of scattered thunderstorms will rumble across the state Sunday.
Widespread weekend rainfall totals should fall in the 1″-1.5″ range for most, but there will also be some locally heavier totals.
As we progress into the upcoming week, cool air will be the big weather story. Perhaps the coolest days will be next Thursday-Friday (lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/30/widespread-rain-this-morning-then-watching-for-strong-severe-storms-this-evening/
Apr 27
Heaviest concentration of storms Tuesday was along the I-70 corridor and points south. We think today coverage of rain and thunderstorms will be more widespread across the state…
We’re off to a cool and quiet start this morning, but think things will turn rather busy yet again as early as the early-mid afternoon hours. Unsettled conditions will continue through the night.
Latest scans of the HRRR future-cast radar product suggests we need to monitor for high wind potential during the early to mid afternoon hours. We’ll keep a close eye on this.
The high resolution NAM future-cast radar is slower, but also shows strong to possibly severe storms into central IN late tonight.
The current SPC outlook highlights far southwestern IN for the chance of severe weather today. Don’t be surprised if this is expanded northeast with later updates today.
Rainfall potential today-tonight should feature many neighborhoods accumulating an additional inch, with some locally heavier totals.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/27/another-round-of-storms-this-afternoon/
Apr 23
We enjoyed a brilliant Saturday across central Indiana. Plentiful sunshine developed, as expected, after a cloudy, drizzly start in areas. Temperatures topped out in the mid to upper 60s for…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/04/23/active-times-my-friend/