Highlights:
- Fog and drizzle
- Major winter storm looms
- Frigid air returns
Brief Thaw; Major Winter Storm On Deck…The short-term will be dominated by low clouds and areas of fog, along with patchy drizzle. Areas of freezing fog and drizzle are possible early Wednesday morning before conditions “warm” in earnest through the afternoon and evening.
A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday with showers and gusty southerly winds. This southerly air flow will deliver a briefly milder time of things during the day Thursday before the cold front settles south Thursday night. As this transpires, surface low pressure will organize along the southern end of the boundary before tracking northeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday.
We continue to favor a track up west of the spine of the Appalachians and note some of the more progressive data is beginning to correct west to align closer with the other guidance that’s been spitting out big snow numbers over the past few days. Before we discuss snow, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will fall across the region late Thursday night into early Friday. We expect precipitation to transition to all snow Friday afternoon, continuing into Saturday. At times, heavy snow is likely.
While we aren’t ready to lay out an accumulation map just yet, the heaviest snow axis will likely include 8″ to 12″+ amounts somewhere through central portions of the state. We’ll aim to provide a first call snowfall map this time tomorrow. Furthermore, there will also be a wind component to this storm. What’ll initially be a wet, heavy snow will turn more “powdery” in nature as arctic air gets pulled into the storm. That powder will get blown and drifted about Friday night and Saturday and travel will be significantly impacted.
Frigid conditions will return over the weekend before another accumulating snow pushes into town Monday. Behind this snow maker, a brutal push of sub-zero air is likely next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 6″+
- Rainfall: 0.50″ to 0.75″
Highlights:
Despite an active weather week ahead, the open to the new work week will be rather uneventful. Weak high pressure will keep us dry today and Tuesday. Fog and low clouds should give way to an increasingly bright sky by this afternoon (still more clouds than sun today) and partly cloudy skies Tuesday.
A stronger storm will impact the region as we close out the work week. Strengthening low pressure will track into the Great Lakes and drag a trailing cold front through our region Friday evening. A briefly milder southwesterly air flow will push temperatures close to 60° Friday afternoon/ evening before the sharply colder push of air blows into town for the weekend. The transition may include strong to severe thunderstorms Friday PM, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a large portion of the region under a severe risk Friday. It’ll be important to stay tuned to future updates. Even outside of potentially damaging thunderstorm gusts, non-t-storm winds will gust over 40 MPH Friday.
Once the cold front sweeps through the region, a sharply colder air mass will plunge into the Ohio Valley for the weekend. Overnight data has trended even colder and would suggest falling Saturday temperatures (most of the day will be spent in the 30s) and highs only in the lower to middle 30s Sunday.
Speaking of cold, Thanksgiving week is looking unseasonably cold, and there’s also the potential of early-season snow (far too early for specifics).
Highlights:
A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday. Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s. While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday. From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat. We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual. Late November 2013 comes to mind.
The biggest concern with stronger storms is gusty straight line winds. While the line of storms should be relatively “skinny,” don’t be surprised if one or two of the storms requires a warning. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 9p Saturday.
We’ll turn less humid and slightly cooler for the second half of the weekend!
MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week. Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.
