Category: Severe Weather

Oct 29

Tuesday Forecast: Changes Brewing…

Updated 10.29.13 @ 9:37a

Zionsville, IN It’s another calm, cold, quiet start to the day, but changes are brewing. These changes include warmer, more muggy air by tonight and Wednesday, widespread rain and storms for mid week, and another temperature plunge for the weekend.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; scattered nighttime showers; 0.10″; 37/ 62

After a calm, cold start to the day, clouds will increase and showers will develop tonight. We currently note widespread rain and embedded thunder across MO, but this will weaken as it encounters our dry air mass tonight. Light rain will likely overspread the region from southwest to northeast as we move through the nighttime hours.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconWednesday: Scattered showers; 0.10″; 55/ 67

The big story on Wednesday won’t be the rain, but instead the briefly warmer surge of air out ahead of our cold front. In fact, most of Wednesday should remain rain-free. Latest high resolution short term model data points to showers and a rumble of thunder exiting stage right Wednesday morning and while we can’t rule out an additional shower or thundershower through the day, most of the time will be rain-free Wednesday. South winds will begin to increase during the afternoon, gusting over 20 MPH.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconHalloween: Showers and thunderstorms; 1.10″; 59/ 66

A strong cold front will plow into the state Thursday night. Out ahead of this boundary, abundant moisture will surge north into the area. We’re not looking at all day rains Thursday, but target the afternoon-nighttime hours when rain and thunderstorms will be the most widespread. Additionally, we continue to monitor the severe threat with this system. Widespread and significant severe thunderstorms will be likely across southern IN and points south to include the western TN Valley. That said, severe weather reports will likely extend north to include central Indiana, as well. As of now, the primary severe threat appears to be from a damaging straight line wind perspective across our neck of the woods. Heavy rainfall will also be common as widespread 1″+ rains are likely.  Needless to say, you’ll certainly want to keep those weather radios tuned in Thursday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 45/ 59 

The cold front will be to our east Friday, allowing the sunshine to return. It’ll be a breezy day, but the true cold air advection will hold off until Saturday, so temperatures will be very near seasonal levels Friday with a gusty northwest breeze.

imagesSaturday: Mostly cloudy; PM scattered showers (wet snow flake mixed in); 0.05″; 37/ 47

Fresh cold air will pour into the state Saturday and be accompanied by some upper level energy to create the threat of afternoon scattered showers.  Precipitation may mix with a wet snow flake Saturday evening. We think the day shapes up as a cold, raw day that will certainly require that jackets and sweaters.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 55

We’ll wrap up the weekend with sunshine returning.  Temperatures will begin to moderate closer to where we should be for this time of year, after a cold and frosty start.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 37/ 63

As high pressure moves to our east, it’ll allow a warmer return flow out of the southwest to help take over the region for the start of another work week. We’ll monitor a storm system to our west, but forecast dry skies for now next Monday.

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Oct 06

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Rain was plentiful over the region over the past 48 hours.  While widespread 2″ rainfall was common for all of central Indiana, the heaviest rainfall fell across southern and eastern Indiana.

Here are a couple of illustrations of the rainfall totals.  The first image is storm total rainfall from the past 24 hours. Note the heavy, 4″ type rains over southern and eastern Indiana. The second image is off the awesome Weatherbell model site and shows the heavy rainfall event over Indiana that unfolded on a bigger scale.  Needless to say, the short term drought concerns that we were dealing with August and September have been erased.

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Temperatures are running MUCH cooler over the region today and we also note a drier, more fall-like, air mass building into the region.  A couple of other items- it’s easy to see where the cold front is currently located (as of this post) as many in Ohio are still dealing with warm, humid conditions.  Additionally, the cold core upper level low remains to our west and will rotate over our region Monday.  This will lead to an unseasonably cool day with mostly cloudy skies and the potential of a scattered shower.

rtma_glus

As we move forward, despite the cooler air to welcome in the new work week, we remain in a warmer than average pattern overall.  The PNA continues to dominate the pattern and until this goes positive, don’t look for any sort of sustained cool weather across the eastern US.

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The European operational and ensemble show the current trough and associated cool air retreating and allowing a warmer southwesterly air flow to build in this week.

Monday

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Thursday

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96After a quiet time ahead (and much needed to dry out), our next significant storm system appears to arrive around mid month.  Both the GFS and European model are in agreement with this idea.  Does another potential significant rain maker and associated severe weather event lie ahead mid month?  Possibly.

Here’s a look at the upper air pattern out at Day 10 off the European model.  We note another significant storm system ejecting out into the Plains states, most likely after dumping another impressive early autumn snow on the central and northern Rockies.

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The GFS idea is something similar to that of the European, suggesting confidence is relatively high, at least from this distance.

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All of that said, we’re still in a “transient” pattern as the next big storm is shown crashing onshore along the west coast by both models.  We shouldn’t be surprised by a “transient” pattern this time of year. It’s October, after all- a month notorious for many swings on the thermometer.

We’ll close with a look at the European’s temperatures anomalies over the course of the next 10 days.  Note the chill of early week erased with above normal warmth for the majority of the period. Also, pay attention to the unseasonable chill coming off the Rockies and into the Plains towards the end of the period below.  This is associated with the mid month storm.

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Oct 05

Noisy Night Ahead; Longer Range Thoughts

A noisy night is ahead as the promised heavy rain event and strong to severe thunderstorms arrive in the city around, or just prior to 8pm.  A couple of rounds…

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Oct 05

Quick Video Brief Discussing Rain & Severe Potential

http:/   Good Morning!  Here’s a quick video showing what the ECMWF and GFS see as far as the coming heavy rainfall event goes. Your full forecast is below. As…

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Oct 04

Saturday Forecast: Stormy Weekend Unfolding

Updated 10.05.13 @ 6:32a

Zionsville, IN After a pleasant end to the work week (how about highs once again zooming into the 80s Friday?!), we begin to undergo major weather changes as we progress through the weekend.  Our hats are off to the European model for nailing this heavy rain threat days in advance. After a sub-par performance earlier this week with rainfall amounts, it’s making up for “lost time” and in quick fashion.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday: Mostly cloudy, showers and t-storms; 1.00″ 66/ 78

While we may muster a little sunshine during the daytime hours Saturday, we think most of the day is mostly cloudy, warm, and humid, with an increasing risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We bracket the evening and overnight as the best time period for significant thunderstorms, including a severe thunderstorm. We anticipate damaging straight line winds as the primary focus for severe weather, but a quick spin-up tornado or two is possible. Severe weather is dangerous any time of the day, but particularly dangerous at night.  Be sure to keep tuned to local media and make sure to have your weather radio on alert mode. Another item of concern? The heavy rainfall threat. Most of central Indiana should check in with 1″, or more, of rainfall by the end of the day.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconSunday: Thunderstorms; 1.25″ 51/ 66

The cold front will slow to a crawl as it progresses through the state and as a result, we look for heavy rain and embedded thunder continuing Sunday, especially during the morning and early afternoon. Rain will end from west to east as we progress through the afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall is likely for the entire region, but especially for the eastern and southeastern portions of the state. Temperatures will begin to fall as we go through the afternoon.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconMonday: Mostly cloudy, showers; 0.10″ 50/ 59

An upper level low will remain overhead Monday creating a much cooler day along with considerable cloudiness and scattered showers. Highs likely won’t make it out of the 50s for many across central Indiana.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, small shower chance; 0.10″ 45/ 62

Weather conditions will begin to improve as we move into Tuesday. We should add a little more sunshine to the mix and rain chances will diminish.  An isolated shower is possible, but many communities will remain rain-free Tuesday.

Status-weather-clear-iconWednesday through Friday: Mostly sunny; lower to middle 40s/ lower to middle 70s

We’ll enjoy dry conditions with lots of sunshine and moderating temperatures as we progress through the back half of next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-forecast-stormy-weekend-unfolding/