Category Archives: Severe Weather

Still Eyeing Mid Week Storms; Windy And Colder To Close The Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 7.07.33 AMHighlights:

  • Wednesday night storms
  • Very windy to close the week
  • Colder Friday

The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).

Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

TueEvening

WedEvening

ThrEveningWe still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall.  Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event.  Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.

Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday.  As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time.  This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.

10pradarWedAs mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm.  We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms.  Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.

What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH).  Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. 🙂

Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November.  We note the SOI is actually positive right now.  This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).

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The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks.  Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.

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No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, El Niño, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, MJO, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Monday Morning Video Update…

We continue to eye Wednesday night for severe weather potential.  Due to timing, as of now the greatest concern is thunderstorms that contain damaging straight line winds.  If traveling west…

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No Comments Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, T-storms, Weather Videos, Windy

Changes On The Horizon…

Screen Shot 2015-11-08 at 9.39.59 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Rain arrives Monday afternoon/ evening
  • Stormy Wednesday night-Thursday morning
  • Much colder late next week

High pressure will supply a beauty of a second half of the weekend.  After the frosty start to the day, we’ll “warm” into the lower 50s this afternoon.  It’ll be a perfect crisp November day.

Changes arrive Monday as clouds increase and give way to rain as early as the afternoon as moisture rides north out of the Deep South.  A wave of low pressure will ride up the western slopes of the western Appalachians and enhance early week rain to our east.

The next big ticket item is the storm that will arrive Wednesday night.  We continue to keep a very close eye on this as a severe weather outbreak appears likely.  Specifics still have to be ironed out and we go through the next couple days, but keep abreast of the latest weather information during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time period.

MUCH colder air will pour into the region behind the big low as it wraps up over the Great Lakes.  A hard freeze appears likely come Saturday morning.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.50″ – 1″

No Comments Autumn, Forecast, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Dry, Chilly November Weekend; Mid Week Storms…

Screen Shot 2015-11-07 at 10.56.54 AMHighlights:

  • Sunny and cool
  • Midweek Storms
  • Prolonged period of windy weather late week

High pressure is building into the Ohio Valley this weekend and helping supply sunshine and that cool, crisp air we enjoy this time of year.  Freeze and frost conditions are ahead tonight and again Monday morning as high pressure moves overhead and results in clear skies and calm winds.

As the high moves to our east, a return SW flow will help moderate temperatures for mid week. As our next storm system comes out of the Plains it’ll intensify as it tracks into the Great Lakes.  Thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it swings through the state Wednesday night.  We’ll monitor for strong to severe storm potential.  A lot will hinge upon the precise track of the surface low and we’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple days.  We’ll turn cooler again late next week with strong winds shifting from the SW to NW.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy