Though we were greeted with a cold and frosty start to our Sunday, high pressure will supply plentiful sunshine as we wrap up the St. Patrick’s Day weekend. Find a patio this afternoon that’s showing the Madness and soak up that Vitamin D. The increasingly powerful March sun angle will help boost temperatures into the middle to upper 50s for most of central Indiana.
Things will begin to change as we open up a new work week. Surface low pressure will track out of the central Plains into the lower Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. This will spread moisture into the southern half of the state Monday evening. With air just cold enough, precipitation will mix with and perhaps change to a wintry mix of sleet and wet snow along the northern periphery of the precipitation overnight into Tuesday morning.
March snow events can offer “surprises” and we’ll need to keep a close eye on the precise details pertaining to the track of the upper low Monday night into Tuesday. Under and just north of these little bundles of energy can often times be the spot for a wet snow “thump” this time of year. For now, it appears areas from southern IN into Ohio may be the sweet spot for a late season accumulating snow event.
The mid week stretch should be showcased by dry, but unseasonably chilly conditions. Lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s aren’t what many Hoosiers on Spring Break want to deal with…
Our next item of significance arrives Friday as a warm front lifts northeast through the Ohio Valley. This will result in a wet close to the work week.
Looking ahead, the weather pattern sure looks active to wrap up March and open April, including above average precipitation and potentially an “uptick” in severe weather episodes…
A couple of storm systems continue to have our attention over the upcoming week:
From this distance, neither storms seem to be a “big deal” for central Indiana. However, we know March storms can “surprise.” Just ask our friends across KY earlier this week. 🙂 Spring warmth attacking south of systems combined with unusually cold air, associated with the blocking, just to our north can lead to all sorts of fun and models may have to play catch up last minute in some areas. At the very least, we recommend keeping an eye on the forecast over the next week, or so.
Our Saturday morning will be dominated by soaking rains as moisture continues to stream across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, including central Indiana. Add in temperatures in the lower to middle 40s and you have our official approval to sleep in this morning. 🙂
Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will return by evening, and forecast radar products at 8p and 2a Sunday show the stormy times well:
A couple of storms may become strong to severe (especially downstate). Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the threat of severe weather to encompass more of the state.
After early morning storms head east Sunday, high pressure will build in with drier conditions and increasing sunshine Sunday. It’ll be a very nice close to the weekend, and calm, pleasant conditions will continue as we progress through the early portions of the new work week.
Embedded thunderstorms may target southern Indiana late tonight and Friday morning before more widespread thunderstorms (a couple could become strong) Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms Saturday.
All total, additional rainfall between now and Sunday morning should reach 2″ to 3″ across a widespread portion of the southern half of Indiana with locally heavier amounts.
We’ll finally dry things out as we close the weekend and head into early next week as high pressure settles overhead.
Next week will begin a pattern transition from the unseasonably warm weather we’ve enjoyed as of late to a colder regime for the first half of March. We note models continue to tank the NAO and AO.
Accordingly, the models are seeing the trough and associated colder than average pattern returning to the eastern half of the country as we rumble through the first half of March. With such a strong block in place, this can turn into an active pattern for a couple weeks to go along with the cold. Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the overall look.
While there’s no way to get specific on the individual storm threats that will eventually come with this pattern, the potential is present for a few storms to “bowl” underneath the block through the first 10-15 days of the month. Each storm will have the capability of delivering wintry precipitation, but this can also be a tricky time of year where most, if not all, ingredients need to come together to create significant wintry events. In a winter that’s been frustrating to central Indiana snow lovers (frigid, but dry first half and milder, wetter second half), perhaps it would be fitting to get a couple good snow dumps in March (when most are wanting and ready for spring)…