Category Archives: Record Cold

Transition Period Set To Give Way To A Big Finish To Winter?

We don’t see any reason to alter our thinking of how the upcoming (4) weeks plays out:

This week features a transitional pattern back to a predominantly colder and snowier than average period from 2/18 through 3/10.

The MJO continues to have Phase 8 on its mind.

To no surprise, the GEFS is going right to what a Phase 8 should yield:

Days 1-5

Days 6-10

Days 10-14

With widespread cold set to once again overwhelm the pattern, the active storm track will begin to take on an increasingly snowy theme in the aforementioned period. This is a type pattern that may once again challenge cold records somewhere in the late February or early March time frame. While likely not to the magnitude of the bitter blast a couple weeks ago, it wouldn’t surprise us in the least to head back to record daily cold territory before pulling out of this pattern and heading on towards spring.

No Comments Arctic Cold, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Record Cold, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Tracking Two Cold Fronts; Dangerous Cold Arrives Tuesday Evening…

We’re tracking two cold fronts as we open the new work week. The first will pass without a whole lot of fanfare this evening. However, the second boundary (the true arctic front) means business Tuesday afternoon/ evening.

We notice a band of mixed precipitation moving into central IN before sunrise. This will swing through the state, changing to rain as it does so, through the morning and into the early afternoon. The reason? Just enough mild air working in on southwesterly breezes ahead of the frontal boundary.

The front will pass through the city around or just after rush hour. Gusty winds and falling temperatures are ahead this evening.

By morning, most of central Indiana will awake to temperatures in the single digits.

The second front (true arctic boundary) will be barreling towards the state at this time and will pass Tuesday evening. It’ll hit like a “wall” with gusty winds, brief, but intense snow squalls, and plummeting temperatures.

Central Indiana will be greeted with temperatures nearing 10° below zero and wind chill values of 30° to 40° below zero Wednesday morning.

Please take this cold seriously and complete preparations today. Thankfully, milder times are ahead as we head into the weekend…

No Comments Arctic Cold, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Record Cold, Record Weather, Severe Weather, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

I’m Dreaming Of A White…Easter?

A cold front will blow through central Indiana this evening and colder air will spill into the region overnight.  We’ll wake up with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s Easter morning with dry conditions in place.

Most of the daytime Easter Sunday will feature dry conditions.  Clouds will increase, lower, and thicken through the afternoon ahead of an area of low pressure that will track through the lower Ohio Valley Easter night.  This will spread precipitation into central Indiana towards 5p-6p.  Initially, precipitation is likely to begin as a cold rain, but we expect a rather quick transition to wet snow shortly after the onset.  Periods of moderate to heavy snow will fall into the nighttime across the I-70 corridor.  This will lead to reduced visibility and slick travel as snowfall rates will (once again) overcome marginally cold surface and pavement temperatures.  If you must travel tomorrow night and early Monday, expect roadways to be slick at times- including being slush and snow covered.

Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like tomorrow night, courtesy of weatherbell.com:

6p forecast radar

8p forecast radar

10p forecast radar

12a forecast radar Monday

This will be a rather quick-hitting event, but “thump” potential is written all over it, including localized intense banding.  These localized bands could result in a couple of reports of 4″+ in spots.  We think heaviest snow falls in the 6p-midnight window.

Our current snowfall forecast:

Another winter event is possible next weekend, including the potential of additional accumulating snow.  Should we get snow down, the possibility of near-record cold is present with the late season blast of arctic air next weekend.  Lows in the 10s aren’t out of the question at least one night next weekend- likely Sunday.

No Comments Arctic Cold, Easter, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Record Cold, snow, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Winter Storm