We don’t see any reason to alter our thinking of how the upcoming (4) weeks plays out:
This week features a transitional pattern back to a predominantly colder and snowier than average period from 2/18 through 3/10.
The MJO continues to have Phase 8 on its mind.
To no surprise, the GEFS is going right to what a Phase 8 should yield:
Days 1-5
Days 6-10
Days 10-14
With widespread cold set to once again overwhelm the pattern, the active storm track will begin to take on an increasingly snowy theme in the aforementioned period. This is a type pattern that may once again challenge cold records somewhere in the late February or early March time frame. While likely not to the magnitude of the bitter blast a couple weeks ago, it wouldn’t surprise us in the least to head back to record daily cold territory before pulling out of this pattern and heading on towards spring.
Most of the daytime Easter Sunday will feature dry conditions. Clouds will increase, lower, and thicken through the afternoon ahead of an area of low pressure that will track through the lower Ohio Valley Easter night. This will spread precipitation into central Indiana towards 5p-6p. Initially, precipitation is likely to begin as a cold rain, but we expect a rather quick transition to wet snow shortly after the onset. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will fall into the nighttime across the I-70 corridor. This will lead to reduced visibility and slick travel as snowfall rates will (once again) overcome marginally cold surface and pavement temperatures. If you must travel tomorrow night and early Monday, expect roadways to be slick at times- including being slush and snow covered.
Another winter event is possible next weekend, including the potential of additional accumulating snow. Should we get snow down, the possibility of near-record cold is present with the late season blast of arctic air next weekend. Lows in the 10s aren’t out of the question at least one night next weekend- likely Sunday.