Category: Record Cold

Mar 03

Icy Morning…

Screen Shot 2015-03-03 at 7.58.16 AMRough Travel Conditions This Morning…Freezing rain and freezing drizzle is making a mess of the morning commute.  Thankfully, eventually we’ll climb above freezing around, or just after, noon.  Before then, icy travel conditions can be expected.  Take it slow or postpone travel until the afternoon if possible.  By this afternoon, temperatures will climb above freezing and plain ole rain can be expected into tonight.  We don’t anticipate flooding issues locally as rain won’t be heavy enough and temperatures won’t be warm enough to result in significant melting.

Much colder air will blow into town late tonight and Wednesday morning and as a second area of low pressure tracks along the front, widespread accumulating snow is a good bet across the southern half of the state Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.  As of now, we still target areas along and south of I-70 most at risk for snow accumulation Wednesday afternoon.

A much drier, but cold, pattern will be with us to wrap up the work week, including more record cold a good bet.  Dry and slightly milder conditions are ahead over the weekend before a weak system may deliver a light snow or rain shower early next week.

Looking ahead, it appears as if we finally may deal with a much milder, spring-like pattern around mid March.  60s for highs anyone?!  That said, concerns remain that we reverse this and go colder than normal late March.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″ (south)
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″

In case you missed it this morning, we posted an article on meteorological winter and you can find it by clicking here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/03/icy-morning/

Mar 02

A Lot To Discuss…

Good evening, friends!  As promised, there’s a lot on the weather menu over the course of the upcoming several days.  Let’s get right into the details.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 3a-12p for all of the region to account for the sleet and freezing rain situation we’ll deal with late tonight into the first half of Tuesday.  We still expect significant travel issues and overall impacts to the Tuesday morning commute.

Forecast radar shows freezing rain spreading into the region between 3 and 4am.

1Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue for the better part of the morning hours as temperatures likely won’t climb above freezing until early Tuesday afternoon, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast.

Forecast temperatures at 12p Tuesday.

hires_t2m_indy_24We still don’t anticipate many big time flooding concerns as a.) temperatures won’t warm all that much (we MAY reach 40 Tuesday evening, but that’s a big question mark) and b.) most of the heavy rain will remain south of central Indiana.

Here’s expected liquid-equivalent totals through Wednesday morning.

2The next concern is the threat of accumulating snow for central and southern portions of the state Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Arctic high pressure will limit the northern extent of significant precipitation, but, as mentioned previously, energy rounding the base of the trough will ignite another wave of low pressure to move along the pressing arctic front.  As of now, we target areas along and south of the I-70 corridor most under the gun for a potentially impactful snow storm Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

3The individual GFS ensemble members have also been trending north and overall more excited about snow prospects, as well.

7The other item on the agenda is a shot of record cold in here for late week.  Sub-zero lows are a good bet by Friday morning.  Highs Thursday will push for a new record low maximum temperature.

4

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/02/a-lot-to-discuss/

Mar 01

More On This Week…

It was a record snowfall officially at IND where a storm total of 7.9″ was recorded (5.9″ accumulated since midnight). Many other 8″ type amounts are common throughout the heart of central Indiana- including right here at the IndyWx.com HQ.  Yours truly ventured out through the village of Zionsville this afternoon.  Simply beautiful!

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We have a busy weather week upcoming and wanted to touch base on a few items of note:

1.) Freezing rain and potential slick travel will be possible very late Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Moisture will attack from the southwest and run into an impressive snowpack currently in place across central Indiana.  Despite warmer air moving in aloft, surface temperatures will remain cold enough through late Tuesday morning to allow precipitation to fall in the form of sleet and freezing rain Tuesday morning.  It appears as if enough freezing rain could accumulate to result in slick travel throughout the region.  While temperatures will “warm” into the lower 40s Tuesday afternoon, this is a far cry from the lower 50s modeling tried to suggest a few days ago.  Furthermore, cold air will quickly rush back in here Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

2.) Accumulating snow threat for the southern half of the state Wednesday into Thursday. Additional “energy” will round the base of a digging trough over the southern and central Plains states Wednesday. This will help ignite a surface low along the front and temporarily lead to the front stalling out just to our south and east.  It’ll be close as to just how far north the accumulating snow shield makes it across southern and central Indiana, but will require  a close eye in the coming day or two.  We note some of our more reliable modeling placing central and southern portions of the state “under fire” for additional accumulating snow.

3.) Serious and potentially record cold returns this week.  Yet ANOTHER blast of bitterly cold air will plunge into the area Wednesday night into Thursday.  With snow on the ground, it’s possible this direct discharge of arctic air is even colder than what some data might suggest at this time.  As it is already, we think some central Hoosier neighborhoods deal with sub-zero air in the Thursday/ Friday morning time frame.  Thursday’s high will only manage to climb into the teens across the region.  (Keep in mind the average low is 28 and average high is 45).  Just amazing stuff!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/01/more-on-this-week/

Feb 27

Friday Morning…

Good morning, friends! Not much has changed overnight with our thinking in regards to our winter storm late Saturday night through Sunday. We’ll have our first official snowfall forecast map…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/27/friday-morning/

Feb 26

Thursday Morning…

Very busy day on tap so a more in depth post will have to wait until later this evening. Here’s what’s on our plate over the next 5-7 days: 1.)…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/26/thursday-morning/

Feb 25

Busy AND Wintry Forecast…

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 7.27.09 AMBrief Break From The Severe Cold, But Not For Long…Today will be the “pick of the week” as milder air and some sunshine lead to a decent Wednesday. (It’s funny we say “milder” with highs that barely rise above our average low, but we’ll take what we can get).

A clipper system will impact the region tonight through Thursday and spread light snow across the area.  This won’t be a big deal, but accumulations around 1″ will be possible (perhaps an isolated 2″ report here or there).  The bigger deal?  Fresh bitterly cold arctic air pushing in here to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Record-smashing cold and dangerous wind chills will be with us.

The next storm system will spread snow and a wintry mix through central Indiana Saturday night into Monday morning.  As we mentioned last night, this is a fluid situation and it’s still far too early for specifics.  That said, central Indiana is very much in play for another accumulating wintry event this weekend.

A final piece of energy will deliver more precipitation early next week.  As of now we forecast a wintry mix of snow and sleet to transition to rain as milder air pushes in from the southwest Tuesday.  Again- much can still change.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.50″ – 0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 3″ – 6″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/25/busy-and-wintry-forecast/

Feb 24

Tuesday Evening Video Update; Lots Of Winter On The Table…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/24/tuesday-evening-video-update-lots-of-winter-on-the-table/

Feb 23

Busy Winter Weather…

February has been a brutally cold month and there’s no let-up in sight during the upcoming 7-10 days.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThe snowpack has expanded over the past few days.

nsm_depth_2015022305_NationalThe arctic air is very hard to move and forecast models can struggle mightily in the mid range when arctic air is involved.  Add in a vast snowpack over the TN Valley and Ohio Valley and I wouldn’t buy full force into the warm, mostly liquid precipitation solutions as depicted by some European and GFS runs as of late.  More on that later.

Arctic air is the story in the short-term along with a gusty wind that will precede very light snow Tuesday afternoon/ evening.

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hires_ref_indy_29More bitterly cold, arctic air will be with us as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Additional records will fall.

Snow may also be with us.  We’re keeping a close eye on a clipper system that could deliver accumulating snow prospects around these parts Wednesday night/ Thursday.  The latest RGEM solution (below) depicts a more easterly track.  We also note the latest GFS delivers light snow in here Wednesday night and Thursday, as well.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

rgem_precip_mslp_mw_17Late weekend into early next week features another complicated and very complex event.  We believe it’s far too early to buy into any one particular solution provided by the various forecast models, but certainly have to “raise an eyebrow” to the mostly wet, warmer solutions.  There’s an awful lot of dense arctic air around and with a widespread snowpack we have to wonder if modeling may be overdoing the warming (where have we seen this before ;-)).

A wavy front may lead to more wintry “mischief” Sunday into early next week.  Again- far too early for specifics, but additional wintry weather is certainly possible.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_29In the longer term, there’s just no let up in sight from the colder than normal conditions.  Sure we may see a couple of days of milder air (we are heading into March, after all), but, as a whole, the majority of the upcoming couple weeks look MUCH colder than normal.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/23/busy-winter-weather/

Feb 23

Brutally Cold Week…

Screen Shot 2015-02-23 at 7.30.55 AMBundle Up…A series of arctic highs will build south and result in an absolutely frigid week across a large portion of the country, including here on the home front.  Several cold records will fall this week.

For the most part, we’re looking at a dry week, but a skinny band of light snow may blow through the area Tuesday afternoon/ evening- not a big deal.

Models are struggling on the details with our next storm system.  It’s possible we’ll have to add a wintry mix of rain and snow into your Sunday forecast, but prefer to wait another set of runs before doing so.  Timing and track remain big questions at this point- common from a Day 6+ event.  The GFS and European lean towards a milder, wetter event while the Canadian is colder and more suppressed.  Much more on this later.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/23/brutally-cold-week/

Feb 22

Bitterly Cold Week…

Screen Shot 2015-02-22 at 9.20.31 AMFrigid Times…If you haven’t done so already, we highly recommend cleaning up from yesterday’s snow storm as the bitterly cold conditions moving in this evening will turn any left over slush into concrete.

Most of today will feature dry conditions, but we’ll note scattered flurries and light snow this afternoon as arctic air pours into the region.  Winds will also increase and gust upwards of 20 MPH by evening.  The combination of wind and cold will lead to dangerous wind chill values of 15 to 25 degrees below zero tonight into Monday morning.

Reinforcing arctic air will build into the region with a burst of light snow Tuesday afternoon. This will only help to drive home the point of our title above- a bitterly cold week is upcoming.  Needless to say, we won’t just beat record lows this week, but absolutely smash them.

The next opportunity for a substantial winter event appears to be eyeing us during the upcoming weekend.  We’ll have more on this as time draws closer.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting to 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/22/bitterly-cold-week/

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