Indianapolis is running a whopping 11.7° below average through the 1st (13) days of the month. We’ve broken records for cold and snow so far, including Monday’s snow at 2.8″, record lows (8° on Tuesday and 9° low on Wednesday, and record low maximums (21° high on Tuesday).
Shades of November ’14 come to mind with the way this month has started:
As we look ahead, temperatures are expected to remain below, to significantly below, average through the 2nd half of the month overall.
From a storm standpoint, we’re only expecting a couple of fairly weak systems over the upcoming week. A disturbance will scoot across central Indiana Sunday with a few light showers and again Tuesday. Neither is expected to provide significant moisture.
Things begin to potentially turn a little more “exciting” as we grow closer to Thanksgiving. The forecast upper air pattern is one that has “mischief” written all over it and will likely require more attention as time draws closer. More on this and some updated data (including the European and JMA Weeklies) later this evening with our long range video update.
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I.Number-Busting Cold: The western half of central Indiana is experiencing downright frigid conditions this morning. Skies that cleared out and combined with the fresh snow pack, along with strong cold air advection overnight now find themselves in the middle single digits! Officially at IND, the low temperature of 9° (as of the 7a hour) sets a record not only for the day, but is the earliest in the fall season that the temperature has fallen into the single digits.
II. Cold Remains: For some perspective on the current cold, average temperatures this time of year include lows in the upper 30s and highs in the middle 50s. Safe to say we won’t be anywhere near those numbers over the next 6-7 days. Even after we pull out of the arctic intrusion over the next couple of days, temperatures will remain well below average through the weekend.
III. Fast Moving Clipper: We’ll keep close tabs on a fast moving clipper system Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but as of now, only expect scattered light snow showers across north-central Indiana Thursday morning with this system (no accumulation anticipated). After this system, we’re talking about a rather dry forecast into early next week. The next chance of precipitation (light rain) would come Monday, but the key word here is “light.”
IV. Looking Ahead: We’ll have a more extensive long range update later this evening. One of the items of interest is the way modeling handles the MJO propagation. While the European isn’t nearly as amplified, the American modeling wants to take the MJO into Phase 2 towards Thanksgiving. Phase 2 this time of year would argue for widespread colder than normal conditions. Again, much more on the long range pattern a bit later.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/11/evening-video-update-system-snow-shifts-to-lake-effect-overnight-midweek-worthy-of-attention/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/11/11/video-detailed-analysis-of-todays-impactful-snow-and-associated-lake-effect-record-cold-to-follow/
Temperatures: Falling from the lower 40s around daybreak into the lower 20s by late evening.
Wind: North shifting to the northwest and gusting 20-25 MPH.
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal
Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing will be required
We type this with a quiet and pleasant early-November evening underway, but major changes await on deck. An arctic cold front will continue to press south through the state during the overnight period. Monday will dawn with overcast and dry conditions across immediate central Indiana, along with a stiff northerly breeze. That said, a cold rain will develop by mid morning and this will transition to wet snow around or just after lunch north of the city and early afternoon for the city, itself. Some embedded banding is possible within the snow shield Monday afternoon into the evening hours, thanks to a strengthening surface wave moving northeast along the arctic front. This will create the potential of heavier snow rates around the evening rush. Combine this with the fact temperatures will be falling into the 20s around this time frame and it’s a safe bet that weather will create a high impact on evening travel Monday all throughout central Indiana. The “system” snow will diminish off to the southeast late evening, but by this time, lake effect streamers are expected to pivot across central Indiana before eventually setting up shop across east-central and northeast Indiana Tuesday morning. Record cold will follow the fresh snow with a low Tuesday and Wednesday mornings between 10° to 15°.
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The cold front that moved through the state today will serve as an “appetizer” to the “main course” early next week. This is rather incredible considering lows tonight will fall into the lower 20s for most of central Indiana with highs Friday only topping out in the lower to middle 30s. Keep in mind averages for this time of year include a low of 38° and high of 56°!
A very cold Friday morning awaits.
Highs will only top out in the lower to middle 30s Friday.
Dry conditions should prevail through the weekend, but a strong early season arctic cold front has its eyes set on the region Sunday night. This front will slide south through the state Monday, but there’s an interesting twist that will take place as it does so. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary and push northeast Monday. This should result in precipitation growing in overall coverage across the region to open the work week. With cold air pressing south at this point in time, the majority of precipitation should fall in the form of snow. While we’re not expecting a major winter storm, this should result in the first widespread measurable snow of the season for central Indiana and our weekend products will begin to include more detailed specifics as time draws closer. (The famous “ridiculously” early call from this distance is for a 1″ to 2″ type event).
With true arctic air pressing south so early in the season, expect heavy lake effect snow in the traditional snow belt communities across northern IN, MI, OH, PA, and NY. (May need a yard stick to measure snow in spots in these areas before the snow guns shut off mid to late next week). Accumulating snow will extend as far south as the southern Appalachians in this pattern Monday night into Tuesday.
The cold will be something to behold on the backside of this arctic boundary. Highs across central Indiana will only top out in the middle to upper 20s Tuesday and Wednesday with overnight lows in the 10° to 15° range. Below zero wind chill values can be expected.
Much more on the cold and snow early next week will come here throughout the weekend. We leave you with one last item of interest- looking ahead to the 2nd half of November…
The latest JMA Weeklies suggest a similar pattern- western ridge with a cold eastern trough.
Time to go ahead and bring out the heavier winter gear with the persistent nature of this pattern…
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