Category: Rain

Feb 12

Next Week’s Spring Tease Is Just That, A “Tease…”

There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring.  That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.

Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions.  Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period.  The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place.  Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region.  10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd.  We’ll continue to monitor things.

Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall.  Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern.  Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up.  That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.

The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well.  The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.

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Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly.  Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system.  Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point.  Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/

Feb 12

Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow

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0/ 27

9/ 36

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24/ 42

28/ 46 

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1-3″

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0.20″

Forecast Updated 02.12.14 @ 7:50a

Midweek Moderation…While still cold (and still below normal), temperatures will begin to moderate from the frigid readings of the past few days.  Additionally, we’ll continue to enjoy sunny skies both today and Thursday, though we’ll add a gusty southwest breeze into the mix Thursday.

Accumulating Late Week Snow…We’re eyeing two fast moving clipper systems that will deliver accumulating snow for late week.  The first snow event moves in Friday followed by a second snow maker Saturday.  Both have the potential to produce a couple inches of snow across the region and we’ll be able to fine tune these amounts over the next day, or so.

Rainy And Milder…A push of milder air will move in early next week.  Unfortunately, the milder air will come at a cost.  With the heavy snow pack on the ground combined with the warmer air moving in from the southwest we’ll be looking at a gloomy period, including a couple waves of rain.

A push of colder air will swoosh back in here Tuesday night and could lead to a wintry mix before precipitation end.  Looking longer term, we’re still expecting a “taste of spring” late next week!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/accumulating-valentines-day-snow/

Jan 30

Complicated And Complex…

If you have travel plans across central Indiana Friday and Friday night, please make sure you leave plenty of time to get to your destination and prepare for a variety of precipitation types.  In fact, it’s entirely possible (depending on what time of day you’re traveling) that you have to deal with rain across south-central Indiana and snow by the time you arrive into the northern Indianapolis suburbs, complete with an icy mixture “in between.”

Digging through the weather playbook for Friday into Saturday:

A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, allowing a wind shift out of the north to arrive into the city in the early to mid morning Friday. We’ll have to be in “nowcast” mode Friday to determine just exactly how far south the front makes it as this will go a long way into determining precipitation types across central Indiana.

Ultimately, a wave of low pressure will move along the front Saturday, which will help milder air push north and result in a changeover from a wintry mix to all rain during the majority of the day Saturday. In fact, there’s the chance portions of central Indiana may not have to deal with much, if any, precipitation through the majority of the day Saturday- especially south.  Before that, however, we’ll have to deal with a wide variety of wintry precipitation issues Friday and Friday night…  Warmer low level air will be drawn northward and overrun the colder air at the surface Friday and Friday night.  What will initially be a period of snow Friday will transition to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain Friday night and all rain Saturday.  That said, we note the milder push will be brief, and colder air will pour back into the region on gusty northwest winds Saturday night. This may result in a brief period of light snow Saturday night (not a big deal).

We think the latest high-resolution, short-term, NAM model (courtesy from the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics model suite) has a very good handle on accumulation ideas Friday and Saturday and is in best agreement with our analysis laid out above.  This is a look at forecast snow accumulation between now and Saturday night, but we also note there will be some light sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of any snow that falls Friday. As far as that snow goes, we think a 1-2″ band is laid down from the city and points north, increasing further as you travel into north-central and northern Indiana.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/as-promised-complicated-and-complex/

Jan 27

Big Fight Late Week Into The Weekend….

A major battle is taking shape between two of the more respected mid range forecast models for the late week period, including Super Bowl weekend.  The differences range from yet another wintry weekend, with a couple shots of accumulating snow to one that’s much milder and includes some rain.  Operational guidance today has remained consistent with what each particular model has been saying for the past 24-48 hours, adding further complexity to the upcoming late week period.  Usually we’d give a slight nudge towards the European output (warmer solution), but here in a bit we’ll tell you why we’re really not ready to hedge more towards one particular model over the other at this time frame.  Instead, we want to give it a couple more days and see which model “gives in” to the other.

Let’s dive into the European output first.

We note both models in relative good agreement on Thursday night into Friday as light snow overspreads the region (not a huge deal, but potentially enough to make for a slippery Friday morning commute).

As we move into Saturday the European tracks a developing surface low much further north than the GFS, resulting in a milder solution across central Indiana and a forecast that would produce a rain to snow solution Saturday as cold air quickly pours back into our region, with enough snow, perhaps, to produce a light accumulation Saturday night. However, it’s important to note, most European ensemble members are colder than the operational run and this is something we’ll need to continue to monitor.

As we head into early early next week, the European forecast model remains bullish on a potential major winter storm, with a favorable storm track for heavy amounts of wintry precipitation across central Indiana.  The time we’re eyeing for this next storm falls in the Monday night-Tuesday time period so we have plenty of time to monitor things and iron out the details…

Now, as we look at the GFS forecast model, we note a colder solution from start to finish.  We have to raise an eye brow here as the track record of the GFS in the mid range is one that has been known to be biased too “flat” and too cold in handling similar patterns.  Is that saying the GFS is wrong here?  Absolutely not…nobody knows that at this juncture.  It is saying we have to rely on experience and remember similar patterns of the past, including the way the model “corrected” itself with time as we drew closer to the particular event in most cases…

Nonetheless, similar to the European, the GFS delivers a round of accumulating snow Friday morning, but is flatter (colder) with the initial wave and also leads to quite the overrunning event through the Ohio Valley.  As a matter of fact, we deal with two rounds of accumulating snow…Friday morning into the early afternoon and again Saturday morning, associated with yet another wave of low pressure.

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Of interest, the GFS also sees the potential strong winter storm that could impact our neck of the woods early next week.  Needless to say, the surface map next Tuesday morning would have snow lovers smiling in a big way should this come to fruition…

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While we have many details to iron out late week and on into early next week, the overall weather pattern is one that we remain confident on and the results are cold and stormy (i.e. snowy) over the upcoming 10-14 day period.  As a matter of fact, long range teleconnections suggest we remain colder than normal and stormy through the majority of February. In short, there’s really no let up in sight from the overall cold and wintry time of things Hoosiers have grown oh so accustomed to this winter…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-fight-late-week-into-the-weekend/

Dec 21

Dangerous Flood Event Developing

Widespread rainfall totals are approaching 1″-2″ since the rain begin Friday across central Indiana.  When you look at the big-scale radar picture (snapped shortly after 8 o’clock this morning), you can understand the concern that’s ahead later this evening into Sunday, from a flooding perspective.

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Latest projected rainfall numbers remain very consistent on the message we’ve been passing off  to you, the viewer, for a few days now…widespread 3″-4″ totals, with locally heavier amounts.

We think steady moderate to heavy rains continue for the better part of the day, but we note our short term, high-resolution, models targeting this afternoon and overnight for some extreme rainfall rates to develop.  Here’s a look at the simulated radar valid 7pm this evening:

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When you consider the snow melt and the rain that will have already fallen by this point, the stage is set for a very dangerous overnight flooding situation.  Flooding any time of the day is dangerous, but particularly so at night.  If you live in a flood prone area, PLEASE make sure to have a plan in place and consider perhaps spending the night with family or friends tonight as rapid water rise is certain to occur.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dangerous-flood-event-developing/