Category: Rain

Tuesday Evening Video Update: Cooler Than Normal Pattern Continues…

Tonight’s video update takes a closer look at rain and embedded storm chances over the course of this evening and again Wednesday.  Additionally, we look more in-depth at the mid…

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Early Fall Feel Continues

July 2014 is already much cooler than normal month-to-date across the Ohio Valley and Mid West region. With a continued much cooler than normal pattern in place through month’s end,…

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Autumn Feel…

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A big upper low is located across the eastern Great Lakes.  The circulation around this UL feature will result in an unseasonably cool, fall-like, feel across our neck of the woods the next couple days.  On that note, the entire forecast period will remain cooler than normal.  Sky conditions both today and Tuesday will vary depending on your location.  Overall, expect more cloudiness across central and eastern parts of the state compared to the west.  Additionally, scattered light showers will be possible this afternoon- more likely east.  We’ll repeat this forecast Tuesday, though coverage of showers will be a bit more widespread (still not a huge deal).

The overall theme through this forecast period will be a cooler than average one and a bit unsettled.  We’ll remain in a northwest flow regime and weak disturbances will move through the area from time to time, creating a slightly better shower chance each time they rotate through the area.  Looking at the temperature forecast the upcoming week sure will have many scratching their head whether or not we’re heading into August or September?!  The cool summer of 2014 rolls along…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/autumn-feel/

Sunday Morning Weather Rambles…

Good morning and happy race day Indy! This morning’s visible satellite shows our cold front off to the northwest still. The pre-dawn storms have exited to the southeast, but we…

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Ingredients In Place For A Significant Severe Weather Episode.

Quick update this morning, but a more extensive discussion will hit the site later this afternoon/ evening.

An initial round of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through central Indiana this morning as a warm front crosses the state. After morning storms rumble through central Indiana the majority of the day will be rain-free and turn downright hot and muggy.  An oppressive feel to the air will develop this afternoon as dew points rise into the 70s.  We’ll then target another (more widespread and intense) outbreak of severe weather late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a moderate risk of severe weather today:

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The ingredients are in place for a significant severe weather episode later tonight…

Big picture overview:

An autumn-like cold front will slice into a very warm, humid, and unstable air mass Sunday.  Individual disturbances out ahead of the cold front will combine with ingredients listed below to potentially lead to a rather widespread and dangerous severe weather outbreak tonight.

Additionally, short term model data forecasts…

  • CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy and an ingredient of what helps fuel a thunderstorm) to reach 4000-5000 J/kg. Anything over 2000 is enough to lead to strong storms should other factors be in place.
  • Dew points to climb into the lower and middle 70s.
  • Precipitable water to reach 2.5″ (suggests a flash flood threat and local microburst potential)

The greatest concern has to do with the potential of a widespread damaging wind event late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday, but concern is also present that a couple of super cells could develop in advance of the more widespread complex of storms.  Within these super cells, an opportunity is there for large hail and a tornado potential and we’ll closely monitor this as well.

Much more later this afternoon!

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