Another unseasonably mild week awaits, but one thing is becoming increasingly clear: we’re not finished with the cold yet. The transition to a colder time of things next week will come with unsettled conditions late this week and the weekend (I know, timing isn’t on our side).
An upper level ridge will dominate in the week ahead, but note the building heights late in the period across western NA. That will help promote a different (colder) airmass here over the wknd into early next week.Warmer than average temperatures can be expected this week from the Plains and points east.Precipitation should check in right around average this week across central IN and the Ohio Valley as a whole.
Forecast Period: 03.10.24 – 03.17.24
The period will open with dry and seasonably chilly conditions before a southwesterly flow takes hold and helps promote yet another quick warm-up in the work week ahead. A weak and fast moving system may deliver some scattered showers midweek but the lions share of our moisture this week will come Thursday and Friday. Colder air then pours in here over the weekend with the potential of snow getting involved by this time next week.
It’s been a very warm March. So far, Indianapolis is running nearly 13° above the average month-to-date.
In the short-term (Week 1), the pattern will remain on the milder side of normal.
That all begins to change as we move into Week 2.
This is largely driven by the MJO sprinting through the traditionally warm phases for this time of year into the colder Phase 8 late month.
The temperature composite analog for MJO Phase 8 in March during an El Nino season:
Strikingly similar to what we see above on the Week 2 charts, huh?
The teleconnection suite aligns towards a cold look by Week 2.
A potentially more significant storm system looms late next week or over St. Patrick’s Day weekend to usher in the pattern change. Otherwise, with a colder pattern than normal settling in Week 2, this will also likely lead to a drier airmass and subsequent opportunity to dry out after a wetter than normal open to March (also of note is that we’re running a little more than 1″ above normal, year-to-date).
No way to be specific with details from this distance, but given the look to the overall pattern, I’d be surprised if we end the month without an opportunity of a little wet snow with the colder transition.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/09/long-range-report-period-opens-with-more-of-the-same-but-cooler-than-normal-for-a-change-late-month/
Updated 03.08.24 @ 7:50a “Showery” weather through the early to mid afternoon will give way to an increasingly heavier rain by evening, continuing through the overnight. This is all thanks…
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Updated 03.06.24 @ 7:30a Drier conditions will arrive for the middle of the week and we’ll want to enjoy them as a new batch of rain is set to arrive…
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We’ve had a few storms north of the city, itself, early this morning, but for the bulk of the I-70 corridor, things are just now starting to get “busy.” Anticipate rain and storm coverage to continue to expand and grow heavier through the late morning into early afternoon before diminishing.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be most common with a few localized 1”+ reports. Rain and storm coverage will diminish through the afternoon and evening hours across the region.
High pressure will briefly build into the region midweek, allowing for drying skies and pleasant early-March conditions. Enjoy, as another storm system will deliver a round of rain and embedded thunder Friday PM and Saturday.
We turn briefly colder Sunday (and windy) but by Monday, the next warm-up is already scheduled to be well underway. This is just another instance of a brief chilly blast without any legs.
Speaking of cold, while there does remain a window of opportunity for a below normal regime to develop very late March and early April (if we can finally get the MJO to slide over into the colder phases), the short to medium term is still void of any sort of chill, at least for more than a day or 2 behind passing storms. Note the Week 2 ensemble data is still much warmer than normal for our neck of the woods. – A direct byproduct of the MJO rumbling through those classic warm phases.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/05/storms-become-more-widespread-through-the-morning-another-storm-system-arrives-late-week-still-no-sign-of-a-flip-to-colder/
Updated 03.04.24 @ 8a We couldn’t ask for better weather conditions to kick off the work week. Sunshine and unseasonably warm conditions will have several central Indiana neighborhoods flirting with…
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A gorgeous Sunday is on deck with highs rising into the 60s and near 70° west. Enjoy that sunshine while we’ve got it!
Dry conditions should prevail through the daytime hours Monday before showers and embedded thunder roll into town overnight and Tuesday morning. Unsettled conditions will hold through the day Tuesday.
Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common by Tuesday night across the region.
The next low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact us Friday into Saturday. Look for a more widespread, heavier round of precipitation with this particular system as we close the work week.
Despite cooler shots of air flowing in briefly behind frontal passages, there’s no sustained below normal temperature regime on the horizon, and for good reason with this kind of MJO:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/03/sunday-morning-rambles-tracking-2-systems-this-week-and-more-unseasonably-warm-conditions-ahead/
An unseasonably mild week is on tap with a couple chances of rain and embedded thunder. Widespread, organized severe weather isn’t anticipated in the upcoming week.
An anomalous upper air pattern will drive an unseasonably mild and at times wet regime, locally. Temperatures will run well above average in the week ahead across the Central and Eastern portion of the country with unseasonably cold conditions across the West. Plenty of 60s and even 70s are in store for daytime highs in the week ahead. Greatest deviations from normal in the rainfall department will come along the Southeast and Eastern seaboard. Slightly above normal rains are anticipated through the central Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes region.
Forecast Period: 03.02.24 – 03.09.24
After a quiet weekend (including a progressively brighter sky :-)), unsettled weather will come at us in 2 waves in the week ahead: Monday evening into Tuesday morning and again Friday evening into Saturday. In both cases, we expect widespread precipitation. In the case of our early week system, embedded thunder (non-severe) can’t be ruled out. With our late week storm system, the early call now is for more of an organized general rain to fall. Colder air will return to the region by the latter part of next weekend, potentially including some snow showers by Sunday.
Despite a rather gloomy and seasonally chilly Friday, the remainder of the upcoming 7-day period will feature nothing but unseasonably warm conditions. We’re set to open meteorological spring like we closed out meteorological winter: well above normal in the temperature department.
After a perfect weekend (at least by early-March standards), we’ll see periods of unsettled weather as an anomalous upper air pattern remains locked in. Note the deep western trough and expansive, strong eastern ridge.
We’ll push 60° Saturday, 70° Sunday, and zip well into the 70s Monday. (Monday’s record is 78°, set back in 1983, just in case you were wondering).
Dry conditions should remain until we get to Monday night and Tuesday morning.
It’s all the start of an unsettled pattern. An upper low will lift north into the OHV Wednesday with additional showers, followed by a new cold front and associated surface low set to impact our neck of the woods mid and late week.
By the time we get to next weekend, widespread 1”+ rain totals can be expected from a combination of the systems.
Tomorrow we’ll welcome in meteorological spring and the first couple weeks of March appear to continue the unseasonably warm trend. At times, additional warm records will likely fall.
A ‘mean’ eastern ridge (and strong western trough) will dominate the 1st half of March.Well above average temperatures are expected through the 1st half of March.
This is strongly correlated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation highly amplified in the classic warm phases this time of year. (You can absolutely say goodbye to any sort of sustained cold prospects this time of year with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and especially 6). Now, down the road, we’ll want to watch and see if we can maintain this amplitude and rumble into the transitional colder Phase 7 before a potential opportunity to see cold grow more impressive should we *finally get into Phase 8 late month. Remember that we made an attempt at that back in mid-February before things instead collapsed into the neutral phase. Moral of the story for folks longing for one more bout of sustained cold prior to the warmer months ahead, “don’t hold your breath.” The trend certainly isn’t your friend.
Back to the present. No matter what the teleconnections say, an amplified MJO will always win out. And the current MJO forecast to roll through the phases listed above screams that our recent warm times will “keep on keepin’ on” as we navigate the 1st half of March.
MJO forecast through March 13th
The Phase 5 and Phase 6 composite analogs at 500mb (upper air pattern) for an El Niño March:
What this should also result in is an active first half of the month, including above normal rainfall and likely at least another early season strong to severe weather event before we get to mid month.
It’s a classic pattern that should feature low pressure systems ejecting out of the Southwest and South-central into the Plains and western Great Lakes region. That puts our neck of the woods on the warm/ wet (and at times stormy) side of the equation.
As we move into late-March and early April, we’ll have our eyes focused on the MJO and whether or not we can, indeed, get into those traditionally colder phases. Stay tuned.
