Category: Rain

Nov 14

Big, Wet Storm System Sitting On Deck…

Enjoy the weekend, my friends, as a big and wet storm system awaits on deck to impact early to mid week across the region.

November, so far, has followed suit of the past few months in a much drier than normal regime.  Over the past (7) days heaviest rains fell across SE portions of the state.  On the month so far, IND sits around 1″ below normal.

Past 7 day precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the MidWest Climate Watch.

Past 7 day precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the MidWest Climate Watch.

That rainfall deficit may be eaten up over the course of a couple days as our next storm system rolls off the Rockies and into the Plains.  (Track sound familiar)?

Monday

Tuesday

WednesdayThe storm will tap into the Gulf of Mexico and include a deep southerly flow plenty capable of producing a heavy rain event across the region.  Note PWATs (precipitable water) nearly 300% of normal.PWAT

gfs_pwat_anom_conus2_18

We target Tuesday night-Wednesday as the focal point for heaviest rain potential and model data remains firm on general consensus of 2″-3″ falling with this next storm system, including locally heavier totals.

soflow

raintotalsAfter this next storm, attention will begin to shift towards a colder pattern setting up for late November, including Thanksgiving…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-wet-storm-system-sitting-on-deck/

Nov 13

Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 4.04.40 PMHighlights:

  • Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
  • Next big storm arrives early next week
  • Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving

Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping!  Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.

Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN.  The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.

hires_t2m_indy_19

Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week.  Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west.  We’ll continue to monitor.  Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.

ECTueNt

GFSTueNtThe differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound.  Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.

Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November.  Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-night-coming-next-big-storm-slated-for-next-week/

Nov 11

Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-11-11 at 7.17.55 AMHighlights:

  • Nighttime storms
  • Prolonged wind event
  • Eyeing our next storm

The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises.  We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise.  Thank you and keep ’em coming!

Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains.  The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday.  As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning.  We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential.  See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

10pWed

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive.  This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see.  However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.

What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms.  A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so.  We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.

A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week.  Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.

WedStormTrack

ThrStormTrack

The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event.  The European isn’t as bullish early on.  All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region.  Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/

Nov 10

Still Eyeing Mid Week Storms; Windy And Colder To Close The Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 7.07.33 AMHighlights:

  • Wednesday night storms
  • Very windy to close the week
  • Colder Friday

The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).

Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

TueEvening

WedEvening

ThrEveningWe still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall.  Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event.  Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.

Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday.  As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time.  This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.

10pradarWedAs mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm.  We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms.  Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.

What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH).  Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. 🙂

Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November.  We note the SOI is actually positive right now.  This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.55.51 AM

 

 

 

The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks.  Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.59.42 AM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.57.56 AM

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-eyeing-mid-week-storms-windy-and-colder-to-close-the-week/

Nov 08

Changes On The Horizon…

Screen Shot 2015-11-08 at 9.39.59 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Rain arrives Monday afternoon/ evening
  • Stormy Wednesday night-Thursday morning
  • Much colder late next week

High pressure will supply a beauty of a second half of the weekend.  After the frosty start to the day, we’ll “warm” into the lower 50s this afternoon.  It’ll be a perfect crisp November day.

Changes arrive Monday as clouds increase and give way to rain as early as the afternoon as moisture rides north out of the Deep South.  A wave of low pressure will ride up the western slopes of the western Appalachians and enhance early week rain to our east.

The next big ticket item is the storm that will arrive Wednesday night.  We continue to keep a very close eye on this as a severe weather outbreak appears likely.  Specifics still have to be ironed out and we go through the next couple days, but keep abreast of the latest weather information during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time period.

MUCH colder air will pour into the region behind the big low as it wraps up over the Great Lakes.  A hard freeze appears likely come Saturday morning.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.50″ – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/changes-on-the-horizon/