Category Archives: Rain

Client Brief: Time To Gas Up The Snow Plows…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A winter storm will impact the Ohio Valley through the 2nd half of the work week.

What: Accumulating snow and sleet

When: Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening

Temperatures: Lower 30s falling into the 10s by Thursday evening

Wind: Southeast 10-15 MPH Wednesday afternoon shifting to the north Wednesday night and northwest Thursday. Winds will gust 20-30 MPH Thursday evening.

Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate by Thursday evening

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing will be required

A busy 48 hours awaits for central Indiana as a winter storm begins to impact the region. Mid and high level cloudiness will continue spreading over the region this evening and give way to a lowering and thickening cloud deck overnight and Wednesday morning. This is all thanks to a developing area of low pressure over the Ark-la-tex region. This surface low will track northeast into the TN Valley Wednesday and into the central Appalachians Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Long time residents of the Hoosier state know this is a favorable track for impactful wintry weather across these parts and this will be no exception.

Moisture will begin to lift northeast during the day Wednesday and reach the I-70 corridor around or just after lunchtime. Across the southern half of Indiana, this moisture should primarily fall in the form of a cold rain (perhaps a bit of sleet initially as the precipitation moves in). However, further north, trouble will ensue. The air won’t only be colder at the surface, but the depth of cold air will be much deeper. This will result in precipitation that should predominantly fall in the form of a sleet-snow “concoction” along and north of the I-70 corridor where we think an axis of 2″ to 4″ of snow/ sleet will accumulate with this storm- including Indianapolis. Further north, less sleet is anticipated and will result in heavier snowfall totals. The northern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points north to include Lafayette, Kokomo, Logansport, Ft. Wayne, and Muncie can expect 4″ to 6″ of snow with this storm system. Most of that will fall Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with additional lighter snowfall accumulation occurring with “wrap around” snow showers and embedded squalls Thursday afternoon into evening. (The Indiana Snowbelt (you know who you are :-)) can expect additional heavier snow accumulation, courtesy of lake effect).

A brief, but potent shot of arctic air will pour into the region Thursday afternoon and set us up for widespread single digits by Friday morning, including the threat of some sub-zero temperatures where the heaviest snowpack is laid down.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Wednesday morning

No Comments ClientBrief, Heavy Snow, Rain, Sleet, Winter Storm

Long Range Update: Latest EPO/ MJO Implications…

Before we dig into the late-February pattern, there’s no let-up in sight with respect to our current active weather pattern. Just next week alone, we’re tracking (3) systems:

I. Sunday

II. Wednesday

III. Thursday-Friday

This is all part of the big battle taking place between a persistent southeast ridge and western trough. The tight thermal gradient between these features will help “fuel” continued active times, and above average precipitation next week. As mentioned this morning, at times we’ll have to deal with bouts of moderate-heavy rain, and at others, sleet, snow, and freezing rain.

An active weather pattern will continue as the ‘mean’ storm track cuts right through the Ohio Valley next week.

Looking ahead, we continue to build our longer range forecast by using “base ingredients” that feature a 50-50 split of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and EPO (East Pacific Oscillation).

The MJO maintains a warm look, rolling things into Phase 5-6 over the next few weeks.

As you know by now, these are warm phases- especially across the eastern portion of the country.

The “saving grace” for fans of at least being on the playing field for a chance of wintry weather in such warm MJO phases is the negative EPO. There’s great model agreement that this negative EPO will continue into the middle part of the month and this will keep us on our toes for wintry implications as storms track through the region. Conversely, there’s reason to buy into a “blow torch” regime to close the month, as the EPO flips positive and combines with the Phase 5-6 of the MJO.

To no surprise, given the above, we see the new European Weeklies showing a warming trend (after the fight over the upcoming week) for late-February.

The JMA Weeklies from this morning (for the Weeks 3-4 time frame) would agree.

No Comments Client, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Sleet, snow, Unseasonably Warm, Wintry Mix