Category Archives: Rain

Looking Ahead To Christmas Week: Quiet; Warmer Than Average…

It’s been a whirlwind of a few days around these parts, but, thankfully for those with Christmas travel plans, that’s all about to change- at least from a weather stand point.

A cold front will sweep through the state Wednesday morning and we’ll get a glancing blow of arctic air midweek.

The brunt of the arctic air midweek will be aimed at the Northeast, but central Indiana will feel a glancing blow.

This, combined with a fresh snowpack, will result in many neighborhoods waking up Thursday morning to 10s, and a few single digit reports.

With us being on the “outer fringe” of this arctic airmass, we’ll quickly moderate back to “normal” mid-December cold late week and into the weekend. This will be a harbinger of things to come as Christmas week, itself, kicks off.

Note the expanding upper ridge from the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.

This will do a couple of things: shove the energy that could have led to a weekend East Coast storm south and result in an unusually quiet and mild time of things, locally for the Christmas holiday.

In fact, with the exception of a couple light snow showers in association with Wednesday cold frontal passage, we’re talking about a precipitation-free stretch through Christmas Day. Not only will the active pattern come to an abrupt halt, but temperatures will begin to moderate to well above average levels by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs around the 50° mark are likely.

The next chance of meaningful precipitation just come just after Christmas and likely take the form of rain.

No Comments Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Heavy Snow Tonight: Timing Out “Part 2” Monday And Looking Closer At The Late Month Pattern…

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No Comments AO, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Client, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, High-latitude Blocking, Long Range Discussion, NAO, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Winter Storm

Client Brief: Updated Snowfall Forecast; Conditions Go Downhill Quickly This Evening…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

Forecast radar 9p Sunday

What: Accumulating snow; mixed wintry precipitation

When: This evening and Monday afternoon – Tuesday morning

Temperatures: Lower to middle 30s, falling into the middle 20s Tuesday morning

Wind: East northeast 10 to 15 MPH, shifting to the northwest Monday night with gusts to 25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required.

Right out of the gate, let’s talk accumulation: While we don’t need to make significant changes to the snowfall forecast, we did “tighten” the 3″ to 6″ band up a bit and scaled the 1″ to 3″ zones closer into central Indiana on both the north and south sides. This continues to be a central Indiana event- at least as far as heaviest snowfall totals go.

This event will still come in 2 waves, but it now appears as if the initial surge of moisture this evening and tonight will feature the heaviest snowfall rates. Snow will overspread the region this evening (arriving into Indianapolis, itself, between 6p and 7p) and come down heavily at times through the overnight hours. Part 1 will end before daybreak, but the damage will have been done by that point and the morning commute will be significantly impacted as central Indiana digs out from 3″ to 5″ of wet snow.

We’ll get a break through the bulk of the daytime Monday, but precipitation will once again overspread the region from southwest to northeast Monday evening, continuing into the predawn hours Tuesday. This will take the form of snow across central Indiana with a wintry mix and/ or a cold rain across southern and southeastern Indiana. An additional coating to 1″ of snow is possible with this 2nd wave of moisture.

Finally, winds will shift to the northwest and drive colder air into the state Monday night behind the departing storm. Everyone (including southeastern Indiana) will be below freezing Tuesday morning with additional travel impacts likely.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This evening

No Comments Client, ClientBrief, Rain, snow, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix