Category: Rain

Teleconnections Still Aren’t Playing Nice; Does This Change In April?

Seemingly all winter, we’ve been unable to get the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, and MJO to cooperate and align. The end result is an overall pattern that has been unable to produce widespread, sustained cold. As we progress through the remainder of the month, the contradicting signals will continue.

Despite the negative NAO (a signal notorious for drawn out cold patterns this time of year), the deeply negative PNA and developing strongly positive EPO will hold off any significant cold. Even in the immediate term, notice how the signals are’t matching up (i.e. strongly positive NAO with a negative EPO).

The MJO is forecast to rumble into Phase 4 to close the month and this is also a phase that favors eastern ridging.

Given the above, to no surprise, the consensus of model data is for a warm, wet close to the month.

Does this pattern change in April and we actually see some alignment with our teleconnections? What about the MJO? Does the current movement continue and do we get into the colder Phase 1 as currently shown? Interesting times ahead as we sort through the data. Our official April Outlook will be online late week.

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VIDEO: Accumulating Snow For Northern Indiana; Timing Storm Systems Out This Week…

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Turning MUCH Colder Today; Sunny Saturday Gives Way To Unsettled Weather Next Week…

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VIDEO: Discussing Rain Amounts And Storm Potential This Week; Colder Close To March?

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March Snow Events Are Always Fun: Discussing Placement/ Accumulation Amounts…

Saturday morning will open with a lowering and thickening cloud canopy and moisture will soon follow. We expect precipitation to arrive first on the scene across north-central Indiana (between 8a and 10a) and likely fall predominantly as wet snow. Further south (closer to Indianapolis), a mixture of rain and snow is expected to develop between 11a and noon. All rain is anticipated across southern parts of the state.

Once the precipitation arrives, it’ll set up shop for the better part of the rest of the day. It won’t be until closer to the 7p to 9p timeframe that we’ll begin to see the mixture of rain and snow exit the state from west to east.

Temperatures will be marginally cold (lower-middle 30s) throughout the event, and we’ve also discussed the challenge of getting snow to accumulate with that increasingly high March sun angle. That said, even with marginally cold temperatures, if we can generate heavier precipitation rates, areas north of the city can expect to accumulate an inch or two of wet snow. Significant pavement impacts aren’t expected.

Here’s our snowfall forecast:

Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to around 30 for all of central Indiana Saturday night and Sunday morning. Thankfully, high pressure will return and provide increasing sunshine for the 2nd half of the weekend. It’ll still be chilly with highs topping out in the middle 40s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/march-snow-events-are-always-fun-discussing-placement-accumulation-amounts/