Category: Rain

A Closer Look At Thursday

* A video update was posted late last night and talks about the rain, bitterly cold weekend ahead, and  looks at Thanksgiving.  Scroll below for that update.

Today will feature scattered light to moderate rain, but as noted last night, that rain will grow more widespread tonight.  The latest HRRR simulated radar shows that well.

hrrr_ref_indy_14

High temperatures today are forecast to reach the middle 50s, per the latest HRRR.

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_10

We’re still tracking major league early season arctic air due in here this weekend.  Take a look at just how far below normal these temperatures are come Sunday (shown in degrees celsius).  Wow!  Our forecast high of 24 will be the coldest November day in 13 years and a whopping 25 degrees below normal!  Thanks, as always, to Weatherbell Analytics model suite for this data.

gfs_t2max_anom_ma_29

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/21/a-closer-look-at-thursday/

Wednesday Evening Video Update: Rain Moving In; Arctic Blast This Weekend

http:/ Tonight’s Video Highlights: We talk rain and amounts for Thursday and Friday. The coldest air of the season and coldest November day in some 13 years is ahead! A…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/20/wednesday-evening-video-update-rain-moving-in-arctic-blast-this-weekend/

Video Update On The Remainder Of This Week And At Some Thanksgiving Week “Wintry Mischief”

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/19/video-update-on-the-remainder-of-this-week-and-at-some-thanksgiving-week-wintry-mischief/

Wednesday Forecast: A Bitterly Cold Start

Updated 11.12.13 @ 8:50p

Zionsville, IN After waking up to half an inch of snow, sunshine engulfed most of the region Tuesday. The vitamin D didn’t help temperatures moderate much as highs were more like mid to late December as opposed to mid November. We discuss a warming trend below, after a frigid start to your Wednesday.

Status-weather-clear-iconWednesday: Mostly sunny; 19/ 39

A strong area of high pressure will move overhead Wednesday and help supply a mostly sunny sky.  Despite the sun, it’ll be another unseasonably cold day.  Many outlying communities will begin the day in the upper teens before rising into the upper 30s to near 40 by afternoon- a solid 15 degrees below normal.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 49

The same high pressure that will be directly overhead Wednesday will begin to move east Thursday. This will put our region in a southwesterly air flow and allow temperatures to begin moderating. After another cold start, highs will push towards the 50 degree mark Thursday afternoon.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 35/ 52

We’ll wrap the work week up with a few more clouds and temperatures still slightly cooler than normal, though much milder than those we’re dealing with now.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday:  Turning cloudy with PM showers (0.20″); 40/ 59

Model data continues to hint at increasing clouds and the threat of afternoon light rain. We’ll initially have to overcome the dry air mass in place, but by afternoon/ evening we should have scattered showers beginning to impact central portions of the state.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconSunday: Cloudy with rain likely (0.45″); 52/ 60

More widespread rain will arrive for the second half of your weekend.  Highs will approach 60 and should we see any sunshine (not looking likely at this point), temperatures could go into the lower to middle 60s. While temperatures will be much warmer we’ll have to contend with rain Sunday.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconMonday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm (0.50); 34/ 63

A strong cold front will blow through the state Monday evening. Out ahead of the front, an impressive surge of warmer and more humid air will move north and encompass central Indiana during the day. In fact, latest model data suggests dew points reach the lower 60s Monday. The combination between the warmer, more humid air in place and an impressive surge of arctic air behind the front could team up to produce a clap or two of thunder with the moderate to heavy rain threat Monday afternoon as the front moves through. Temperatures will then crash Monday night.

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconTuesday: Scattered snow flurries; 24/ 34

The big story Tuesday will be the much colder air mass rushing into the state on strong and gusty northwest winds. Just enough moisture may linger to create the chance of scattered snow flurries.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/12/wednesday-forecast-a-bitterly-cold-start/

Monday Forecast: Snow Develops By Evening

Updated 11.11.13 @ 8:30a

Zionsville, IN Despite some wind (top wind gusts this weekend reached around 30 MPH) and a chilly Sunday, the weekend was a beautiful one, complete with lots-o-sunshine!  A more active time of things is ahead to kick off the work week.  We discuss below…

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconMonday: Increasing cloudiness with PM rain showers transitioning to light snow (0.50″); 28/ 46

The day will dawn with some sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase and showers won’t be far behind. This is all part of the early season arctic cold front we’ve been talking about.  We think showers (initially rain) arrive into north-central Indiana as early as the early to mid afternoon hours before pushing fairly rapidly south. It’s towards late afternoon/ early evening rain begins to transition to snow. Light snow will continue into the nighttime hours and potentially accumulate to around half an inch across most of central Indiana.

There are a couple of items we’ll have to monitor closely through the overnight and that’s the exact placement of what should be some impressive bands of lake effect snow streaming off Lake Michigan.  While the more significant accumulations, upwards of half a foot for the Indiana snow belt, will remain well north of us, there is the chance a more concentrated band of snow could reach as far south to impact portions of north-central Indiana late Monday night into Tuesday morning and result in accumulations of an inch or two for localized communities. Again, this will have to be handled as a “NowCast” scenario and isn’t set in stone.  If locally heavier snow accumulations do develop with the localized lake enhancement, the majority of this would be north of our immediate coverage area.

Temperatures will plummet Monday night into the lower to middle 20s on a gusty northwest wind.  Needless to say, slick spots could develop on area roadways Monday night.

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconTuesday: Scattered AM snow showers (localized 0.50″); 22/ 35

We’ll keep an eye to area radars Tuesday, particularly in the morning hours as scattered snow showers (potential lake enhanced snow for localized spots) continue.  Conditions will be much more like winter than fall so plan to bundle up. In fact, temperatures will average close to 20 degrees below average for afternoon highs. Any lingering snow showers or flurries will begin to dissipate during the afternoon, paving way for a clear and very cold Tuesday night.

Status-weather-clear-iconWednesday: Sunny; 19/ 42

High pressure will be overhead Wednesday and help supply a day filled with sunshine, although it’ll remain MUCH colder than normal.  We’ll awake to the upper teens followed by highs reaching the lower 40s Wednesday afternoon.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 49

Temperatures will begin to moderate slowly Thursday as high pressure moves to our east. This will set the stage for a return southwesterly air flow and corresponding milder regime, albeit slowly.  After yet another cold and frosty night, temperatures will make a run at 50 degrees Thursday afternoon.

imagesFriday: Mostly cloudy; 35/ 49

A weak weather system will scoot through the region Friday and lead to an increase in cloud cover. Thinking, at least for now, has the area trying to recover from the cold, dry air mass in place so any sort of precipitation will, most likely, be tough to come by. That said, we’ll continue to monitor to see if we need to introduce a scattered light shower into our Friday forecast.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconSaturday: Cloudy with developing light rain; (0.25″) 39/ 52

The early look at next weekend places the region under a southerly flow of air with moisture making a return north, potentially out ahead of a rather significant storm system we’ll have to deal with early next week. The end result will initially be a rather cloudy, gloomy time of things, including developing light rain Saturday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/10/monday-forecast-snow-develops-this-evening/

Monday Forecast: Tracking Another Storm

Updated 11.03.13 @ 3:30p

Zionsville, IN It’s been a beautiful fall weekend across central Indiana. Aside from a couple of quick-moving showers Saturday evening, the weather couldn’t have been more perfect!  While the work week will start off on a pleasant note, we’re tracking another storm and significant blast of chill later this week.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly to mostly cloudy; 38/ 58

The day should dawn with bright sunshine, however, we note the latest high resolution short-term model data suggesting mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase through the afternoon hours.  It’ll be a dry day with seasonable temperatures.  Enjoy!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; nighttime light showers (0.10″); 44/ 61

We’ll be in between high pressure to our east and our next approaching storm system to our west. As a result, a return southerly flow of air will help begin to transport milder air northward, along with increasing moisture Tuesday evening. The daytime hours should remain rain-free, but we’ll introduce a couple of light showers into our forecast Tuesday night.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconWednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, especially at night (0.70″); 49/ 60

A significant cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Showers will be likely through the day, but we still believe the heavier rains and embedded thunder will hold off until Wednesday night (especially after dark).  While we’re still monitoring any threat of severe weather, the bigger threat at this time appears to be another round of heavy rain falling atop a waterlogged central Indiana.  Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data and update things accordingly.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: AM showers and thunderstorms (0.40″);  38/ 55 (falling)

The cold front will blow through the region Thursday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east during the morning followed by a sharp temperature decline through the day, coupled with strong northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 29/ 48

A much colder air mass will settle into central Indiana Thursday evening and result in a hard freeze Friday morning. After waking up to lows in the upper 20s, highs will reach the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 40/ 55

Our fast-moving weather pattern will remain next weekend.  We’re tracking another storm system that will blow through the Great Lakes region Saturday. Current thinking places the track of this low too far north to impact the region from a precipitation standpoint, but we’ll certainly note a strengthening southwesterly wind Saturday followed by another shot of cold air Saturday night/ Sunday.  Highs next Sunday will likely remain in the 40s…

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/03/monday-forecast-tracking-another-storm/

Saturday Forecast: Chilly Weekend; Eyeing Another Significant Storm…

Updated 11.01.13 @ 10:53p Zionsville, IN After a day filled with heavy rain and damaging winds, we closed the week out with chilly, but pleasant weather conditions.  We’ll enjoy a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/01/saturday-forecast-chilly-weekend-eyeing-another-significant-storm/

Monday Forecast: Heading Into A Colder Pattern

Updated 10.13.13 @ 5:33p

Zionsville, IN After enjoying a pleasant Sunday, we’re getting set for a busy time in the good ole forecast office this week.  This is just the beginning of a more active, colder, pattern that should carry us through the end of October…

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 43/ 67

The new work week will dawn with pleasant skies and chilly conditions.  Some outlying areas could even dip into the 30s tonight/ early Monday.  We target the lower 40s officially for IND under fair skies. Dry conditions are on tap Monday with very pleasant temperatures.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Late Showers; 0.10; 52/ 72

Most of your Tuesday will remain rain-free, but we target our next cold front for a Tuesday night/ Wednesday arrival. As a result, we think a broken band of showers moves through the state Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.  We’re not expecting heavy rain with this event and the bigger deal will be the drop in temperatures for mid and late week.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconWednesday: AM showers; 0.25; 48/ 61 (falling)

As mentioned above, our cold front will push east of the region Wednesday morning and usher in a wind shift to the northwest that’ll result in falling temperatures through the day. We think area thermometers are in the 50s by Wednesday afternoon along with a gusty northwest wind.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Mostly cloudy; 43/ 54

Cool will be the word Thursday with highs not making it out of the middle 50s.  As of now we think we remain dry Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy skies in place.  We’ll monitor for the chance of an instability-driven light shower chance, but these will likely be few and far between.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 42/ 60; Saturday: Mostly cloudy; 39/ 52

Partly cloudy and cool conditions will be with us as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. A cold front will blow through the state Friday evening, but it looks like moisture will be limited with this frontal passage. Again, similar, to that of the early week front, the bigger deal will be the drop in temperatures.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSunday: Mostly cloudy with rain developing; 0.25; 43/ 54

Modeling is not in agreement with each other in regards to our next potential weather maker.  As a result, we’ll have to fine tune our Sunday forecast as we move forward.  If the next storm system is slower, then temperatures will be much cooler for overnight lows Saturday night and Sunday morning (into the 30s). As of now, we think clouds increase enough to prevent lows from falling much further than the lower 40s.  Otherwise, Sunday looks like a day where clouds lower and thicken through the day with rain not far behind.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/13/monday-forecast-heading-into-a-colder-pattern/

Friday Forecast: Busier Times Ahead In The Good Ole Forecast Office!

Updated 10.11.13 @ 6:45a Zionsville, IN I, like many of you, make sure to enjoy the last of the warm, sunny weather this time of year.  As veteran Hoosiers know, the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/10/friday-forecast-busier-times-ahead-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/

Thursday Forecast: Beautiful Weather Continues (For Now)…

Updated 10.09.13 @ 5:00p Zionsville, IN Our stretch of beautiful early fall weather will continue as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. Latest model runs…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/09/thursday-forecast-beautiful-weather-continues-for-now/

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