Category: Rain

Feb 16

Cold Today; Messy Monday Ahead.

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Mon.

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16/ 25

15/ 33

20/ 39

24/ 42

35/ 57

28/ 45

28/ 50 

0.00”

1-3″ (and ice)

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0.50″-1.00″

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Forecast Updated 02.16.14 @ 11:15a

Cold Sunday…Fresh off celebrating our snowiest winter on record (surpassed last night at IND at 51.6″ and the Record Event Report can be found here), we’ll enjoy a dry day, but blowing and drifting snow will remain an issue in the open country. A few breaks in the cloud cover can be expected this afternoon on what will otherwise be a rather cloudy day.  Highs will only climb into the lower to middle 20s (well below the average high of 40 and closer to the normal low of 24).  Yes, our cold, snowy winter just keeps on keepin’ on!

Snow And Ice Issues Monday…A storm system will move through the region Monday and deliver a mixture of precipitation types across central Indiana.  The way we see things unfolding as of this forecast update brings a wintry mix of sleet and snow into the city around noon with periods of moderate to even heavy wintry precipitation falling into the mid to late afternoon hours before we begin to see the shield of moisture push northeast.  This will be a “thump and go” type event.

As for precipitation type, this remains a challenge and will require much fine tuning later tonight and through the day tomorrow (another now cast scenario).  We’re thinking mostly snow is the dominant form of precipitation from the northern suburbs of Indianapolis and points north.  Here, 2-3″ of wet snow is possible, polished off with a light glaze of a freezing rain/sleet mixture before precipitation ends.  For the city, itself, we think around 1-2″ of snow is possible with a glaze of freezing rain of around a tenth of an inch. Farther south, to include the southern Indianapolis suburbs, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will be the concern with glaze potential approaching one quarter inch.  Again, we caution this is our best idea at this point and we’ll post some fresh thoughts later this evening.

Needless to say, tomorrow stands to include treacherous driving conditions in and around central Indiana and the National Weather Service will likely issue Winter Weather/ Freezing Rain Advisories later this afternoon to account for the wintry conditions anticipated tomorrow afternoon.

Flooding Concerns On The Rise…With such a deep snowpack across central Indiana, combined with a frozen ground, flooding concerns will be on the rise as early as the middle to latter part of the week.  We think dry and chilly (albeit milder) conditions will be with us Tuesday, but low clouds, fog, and drizzle likely develop by Wednesday as milder air streams north over the snowpack locked in across the region.

By Thursday, our attention turns to the potential of heavy rain and a couple of thunderstorms as a cold front blows through the region.  Early ideas of Thursday rainfall numbers would suggest anywhere from .50-1″ of rain is laid down and when combined with the heavy snow pack and milder air, flooding concerns will certainly be present.  Needless to say, if you live in a flood prone area, please monitor the situation closely later this week.

Winter Blows Back In…As promised, the briefly milder shot of air would be just that- brief.  We continue to monitor data that suggests a colder, more wintry, pattern blows right back into the region to wrap up February.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/16/cold-today-messy-monday-ahead/

Feb 15

Saturday Morning Notes…

* Your full, updated, 7-Day Forecast will be published later tonight. 1.) In the long range, credit the Canadian model for being spot on with yesterday’s snow storm.  It was…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/15/saturday-morning-notes/

Feb 13

Valentine’s Day Snow

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19/ 27

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Forecast Updated 02.14.14 @ 11:00a

Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow…The Canadian led the charge and other modeling has followed suit.  The region will deal with accumulating snow Valentines Day as low pressure moves southeast out of Missouri into the Tennessee Valley.  We think snow will fall at a good clip, periodically heavy, and begin around mid morning around the city.  In fact, a strip of 2-5″ of snow is likely to be laid down between Indianapolis and Louisville later today.  Latest radar trends from upstream and banding features suggest snowfall amounts may reach 6″ along the I-70 corridor. Needless to say, if you have travel plans this afternoon plan for snow covered roads and slick travel.

A fresh shot of arctic air will drill south into the region tonight and result in Saturday “wake up” temperatures in the single digits with a biting northwest wind.

Another Fast Moving Clipper…After a mostly dry Saturday, we forecast light snow to build back into the region Saturday night into early Sunday.  This will only be a light snow event and most amounts will be in the dusting to 1″ category.  The sun should quickly return Sunday afternoon, though it’ll remain colder than normal.

Foggy Start To The Week…As a southerly air flow transports milder air north and over the snow pack across central Indiana fog will develop.  It’s possible some freezing drizzle is dealt with Monday morning before temperatures rise above freezing.  Prepare for a downright gloomy start to the work week.  A cold front will push through the region Monday evening and lead to a period of showers, potentially transitioning to light snow or a light wintry mix Monday night as cold air sweeps back in.

A Spring Tease…A spring tease will have many Hoosiers wanting to break out the shorts by the mid week period.  In fact, highs will zoom into the 60s Thursday, courtesy of a strong and gusty southwest breeze.  The downside?  A line of showers and gusty thunderstorms later in the day.  While we still have a week to monitor this situation, the possibility is there for a few storms to reach severe levels across the Ohio Valley region.  Stay tuned as we monitor this developing weather situation.

Looking longer term, we anticipate the briefly milder spring “tease” to be just that.  Signals are increasingly favorable for a prolonged period of cold, wintry conditions building back into the region as we put a wrap on February and head into March.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/13/valentines-day-snow/

Feb 12

Next Week’s Spring Tease Is Just That, A “Tease…”

There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring.  That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.

Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions.  Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period.  The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place.  Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region.  10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd.  We’ll continue to monitor things.

Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall.  Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern.  Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up.  That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.

The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well.  The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.

gefs_z500anom_nh_33gefs_z500anom_nh_49gefs_z500anom_nh_65

Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly.  Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system.  Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point.  Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/

Feb 12

Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow

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Thr.

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Mon.

Tue.

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0/ 27

9/ 36

21/ 28

8/ 27

17/ 32

24/ 42

28/ 46 

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1-3″

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0.20″

Forecast Updated 02.12.14 @ 7:50a

Midweek Moderation…While still cold (and still below normal), temperatures will begin to moderate from the frigid readings of the past few days.  Additionally, we’ll continue to enjoy sunny skies both today and Thursday, though we’ll add a gusty southwest breeze into the mix Thursday.

Accumulating Late Week Snow…We’re eyeing two fast moving clipper systems that will deliver accumulating snow for late week.  The first snow event moves in Friday followed by a second snow maker Saturday.  Both have the potential to produce a couple inches of snow across the region and we’ll be able to fine tune these amounts over the next day, or so.

Rainy And Milder…A push of milder air will move in early next week.  Unfortunately, the milder air will come at a cost.  With the heavy snow pack on the ground combined with the warmer air moving in from the southwest we’ll be looking at a gloomy period, including a couple waves of rain.

A push of colder air will swoosh back in here Tuesday night and could lead to a wintry mix before precipitation end.  Looking longer term, we’re still expecting a “taste of spring” late next week!

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For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/accumulating-valentines-day-snow/

Jan 30

Complicated And Complex…

If you have travel plans across central Indiana Friday and Friday night, please make sure you leave plenty of time to get to your destination and prepare for a variety of precipitation types.  In fact, it’s entirely possible (depending on what time of day you’re traveling) that you have to deal with rain across south-central Indiana and snow by the time you arrive into the northern Indianapolis suburbs, complete with an icy mixture “in between.”

Digging through the weather playbook for Friday into Saturday:

A cold front is expected to move through the region Friday morning, allowing a wind shift out of the north to arrive into the city in the early to mid morning Friday. We’ll have to be in “nowcast” mode Friday to determine just exactly how far south the front makes it as this will go a long way into determining precipitation types across central Indiana.

Ultimately, a wave of low pressure will move along the front Saturday, which will help milder air push north and result in a changeover from a wintry mix to all rain during the majority of the day Saturday. In fact, there’s the chance portions of central Indiana may not have to deal with much, if any, precipitation through the majority of the day Saturday- especially south.  Before that, however, we’ll have to deal with a wide variety of wintry precipitation issues Friday and Friday night…  Warmer low level air will be drawn northward and overrun the colder air at the surface Friday and Friday night.  What will initially be a period of snow Friday will transition to an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain Friday night and all rain Saturday.  That said, we note the milder push will be brief, and colder air will pour back into the region on gusty northwest winds Saturday night. This may result in a brief period of light snow Saturday night (not a big deal).

We think the latest high-resolution, short-term, NAM model (courtesy from the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics model suite) has a very good handle on accumulation ideas Friday and Saturday and is in best agreement with our analysis laid out above.  This is a look at forecast snow accumulation between now and Saturday night, but we also note there will be some light sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of any snow that falls Friday. As far as that snow goes, we think a 1-2″ band is laid down from the city and points north, increasing further as you travel into north-central and northern Indiana.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/30/as-promised-complicated-and-complex/

Jan 27

Big Fight Late Week Into The Weekend….

A major battle is taking shape between two of the more respected mid range forecast models for the late week period, including Super Bowl weekend.  The differences range from yet another wintry weekend, with a couple shots of accumulating snow to one that’s much milder and includes some rain.  Operational guidance today has remained consistent with what each particular model has been saying for the past 24-48 hours, adding further complexity to the upcoming late week period.  Usually we’d give a slight nudge towards the European output (warmer solution), but here in a bit we’ll tell you why we’re really not ready to hedge more towards one particular model over the other at this time frame.  Instead, we want to give it a couple more days and see which model “gives in” to the other.

Let’s dive into the European output first.

We note both models in relative good agreement on Thursday night into Friday as light snow overspreads the region (not a huge deal, but potentially enough to make for a slippery Friday morning commute).

As we move into Saturday the European tracks a developing surface low much further north than the GFS, resulting in a milder solution across central Indiana and a forecast that would produce a rain to snow solution Saturday as cold air quickly pours back into our region, with enough snow, perhaps, to produce a light accumulation Saturday night. However, it’s important to note, most European ensemble members are colder than the operational run and this is something we’ll need to continue to monitor.

As we head into early early next week, the European forecast model remains bullish on a potential major winter storm, with a favorable storm track for heavy amounts of wintry precipitation across central Indiana.  The time we’re eyeing for this next storm falls in the Monday night-Tuesday time period so we have plenty of time to monitor things and iron out the details…

Now, as we look at the GFS forecast model, we note a colder solution from start to finish.  We have to raise an eye brow here as the track record of the GFS in the mid range is one that has been known to be biased too “flat” and too cold in handling similar patterns.  Is that saying the GFS is wrong here?  Absolutely not…nobody knows that at this juncture.  It is saying we have to rely on experience and remember similar patterns of the past, including the way the model “corrected” itself with time as we drew closer to the particular event in most cases…

Nonetheless, similar to the European, the GFS delivers a round of accumulating snow Friday morning, but is flatter (colder) with the initial wave and also leads to quite the overrunning event through the Ohio Valley.  As a matter of fact, we deal with two rounds of accumulating snow…Friday morning into the early afternoon and again Saturday morning, associated with yet another wave of low pressure.

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Of interest, the GFS also sees the potential strong winter storm that could impact our neck of the woods early next week.  Needless to say, the surface map next Tuesday morning would have snow lovers smiling in a big way should this come to fruition…

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While we have many details to iron out late week and on into early next week, the overall weather pattern is one that we remain confident on and the results are cold and stormy (i.e. snowy) over the upcoming 10-14 day period.  As a matter of fact, long range teleconnections suggest we remain colder than normal and stormy through the majority of February. In short, there’s really no let up in sight from the overall cold and wintry time of things Hoosiers have grown oh so accustomed to this winter…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/01/27/big-fight-late-week-into-the-weekend/

Dec 21

Dangerous Flood Event Developing

Widespread rainfall totals are approaching 1″-2″ since the rain begin Friday across central Indiana.  When you look at the big-scale radar picture (snapped shortly after 8 o’clock this morning), you can understand the concern that’s ahead later this evening into Sunday, from a flooding perspective.

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Latest projected rainfall numbers remain very consistent on the message we’ve been passing off  to you, the viewer, for a few days now…widespread 3″-4″ totals, with locally heavier amounts.

We think steady moderate to heavy rains continue for the better part of the day, but we note our short term, high-resolution, models targeting this afternoon and overnight for some extreme rainfall rates to develop.  Here’s a look at the simulated radar valid 7pm this evening:

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When you consider the snow melt and the rain that will have already fallen by this point, the stage is set for a very dangerous overnight flooding situation.  Flooding any time of the day is dangerous, but particularly so at night.  If you live in a flood prone area, PLEASE make sure to have a plan in place and consider perhaps spending the night with family or friends tonight as rapid water rise is certain to occur.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/21/dangerous-flood-event-developing/

Dec 18

A Lot Of Weather To Talk About…

Mother Nature seems determined to put us weather forecasters to hard work as we get set to head into the Christmas season and welcome in 2014.  We’re tracking a major flood situation that will unfold across central Indiana over the upcoming weekend, followed by a reload of the cold and potentially a storm with a more wintry component as we get closer to the New Year.

First things first and that’s the significant flood threat in the short-term period.  Without trying to go into scare tactic mode, current model data would result in a downright dangerous flooding event for many low lying and flood prone areas this weekend.  Rainfall numbers are extremely impressive with this event and with a deep tropical connection, widespread 3-4″ totals are certainly likely, including some localized higher amounts.  Note the latest European chart, courtesy of the model suite off Weatherbell Analytics.  Needless to say, the Gulf of Mexico is officially “open for business” and will help contribute to excessive rainfall totals and, as stated above, potentially a dangerous flooding event this weekend across central Indiana.

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Latest numbers averaged off a variety of computer models would place just under 4″ of rainfall down by noon Sunday, most of which falls between Friday and Sunday morning.  We note (2) waves of enhanced rainfall intensity set to impact the region.  As of now we’re targeting Saturday afternoon and again late Saturday night/ Sunday morning for extremely heavy rain, shown below.

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We still have time to watch the data and monitor the track of the storm.  It’s possible the “heaviest of the heavy” axis of rain shifts somewhat in the days ahead,  but it’s also important to note that even a light to moderate rain event combined with a frozen ground and a solid snow pack still in place will lead to flooding problems here across central Indiana.  The question of whether or not we’ll deal with flooding here this weekend shouldn’t be asked, but instead the question that remains is just how severe will the flooding be?  Stay tuned and if you live or work in a flood prone area, we would recommend preparing now for flooding.

Now, as we look ahead and focus on the Christmas to New Years period our thoughts will shift from a flood threat in the near term to one that’s more wintry.  We’ll turn dramatically colder Sunday afternoon behind the big rain storm and that will set the stage for a colder-than-average run up to Christmas. In fact, latest raw numbers off some forecast model guidance has some frigid readings ahead next week (upper single digits not ruled out for lows).

The upcoming 10 days off the European forecast model charts show an interesting scenario with the coming thaw, but the key word is brief.  Note days 6-10 are back into a colder-than-normal regime.

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Additionally, we think we’ll have to deal with another storm prior to the New Year period and with the colder air back in place, there’s the threat we could have to contend with a wintry side to the next storm.  The details with storm number two will have to wait until we finish dealing with the first storm and associated serious flood threat it’s presenting.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/12/18/a-lot-of-weather-to-talk-about/

Nov 29

Questions Around Next Week’s Arctic Front…

Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found in the video to the right of this article.

We continue to keep a close eye on the developing weather situation here late next week.  Many questions remain in regards to the track, timing, and strength of the cold air associated with an arctic cold front that will result in record-breaking cold for portions of the country next week.  How much fight will the southeast ridge put up as the front progresses east?  Will we have to deal with a wave of low pressure along the arctic boundary, potentially leading to some wintry “mischief” around these parts?  We hope to give some clarity around those questions by looking at some of the latest data below.

First, let’s take a look at the various model solutions for late next week.  It should be noted that the latest run of the National Weather Service’s GFS forecast model has taken a turn to look more like the overnight run of the European forecast model and suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure moving through here Friday into Saturday of next week, leading to the threat of wintry precipitation.  Taken at face value, this would suggest the threat of an accumulating snow event for central Indiana Friday night into Saturday morning of next week.  This is in stark contrast to the 0z GFS run signaling dry, cold weather during the aforementioned time frame.

Here’s a look at the latest GFS solution, valid next Friday evening:

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There’s relatively good agreement in the GFS ensembles, but, again, we’ll have to fine tune the details.  It’s encouraging to see the agreement in the pattern evolution, though, this far out.

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Here’s a look at the latest European forecast, again valid for next Friday evening.

As we spoke about above, the 0z ECMWF run suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure in the cold air here next Friday into Saturday.  Similar to the latest run of the GFS model, there would be the potential of accumulating snow here.  The ensembles are on the left and the operational run is on the right.  The precise details will have to be ironed out, but we note relative agreement here.

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The latest Canadian forecast model also sees the wave of low pressure along the pressing arctic front, but suggests the wave is too far south to result in any sort of significant snowfall accumulation for central Indiana.  (As of this post time, the 12z Canadian ensemble package hadn’t arrived).

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So, with all of that said, we still have plenty of time to watch things unfold in the coming days.  What are we confident in as of today?

  • Brutally cold arctic air invading the northwest early in the week before slowly spreading east and south as we progress through the week.
  • We’ll be in a much warmer (though very brief) pattern here Thursday as highs zoom into the middle 50s to near 60 with rain.
  • We target the arctic front to blow through here during the day Friday.
  • While we’ll turn MUCH colder than normal next weekend, we aren’t looking at the brutality of the cold that our friends out west will have to deal with.

What are the answers that have to be ironed out this week?

  • Strength and depth of the cold air coming east.
  • Strength of the upper ridge over the Southeast US.
  • The resistance of the ridge will be crucial into determining where the “wintry precip. zone” sets up shop.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/29/questions-around-next-weeks-arctic-front/

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