Category: Race Weekend

May 23

Not As Bad As It May Look…

Screen Shot 2016-05-23 at 6.48.20 PMHighlights:

  • Dry feel turns much more humid
  • Splash and dash storms, but many dry hours
  • Warm, humid Memorial Day/ Race weekend

One More Dry Day…High pressure is scooting away from the region, but will remain close enough to supply central IN with dry conditions Tuesday.  Though warm, we’ll enjoy one more day with dry air in place.

A SW wind shift will deliver an increasingly moist air mass for mid week, continuing into the long holiday and race weekend ahead.  In fact, dew points will surge to readings around 70 (downright oppressive).  While there will be times of scattered showers and thunderstorms, there will also be many dry hours, as well.  We continue to keep an eye on Wednesday for the potential of a strong to severe storm.

As we continue to grow closer to the holiday and race weekend, questions continue to increase around the forecast specifics, and rightfully so.  While we need to be prepared for an afternoon/ evening storm, these will be scattered and there will be “haves and have nots” when it comes to storm/ rain activity over the balance of the upcoming forecast period.  Again, we want to emphasize there should be plenty of dry time.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/23/not-as-bad-as-it-may-look/

May 22

Feeling Like Summer…

Screen Shot 2016-05-22 at 8.27.39 AMHighlights:

  • Dry open to the week
  • Warming up and turning humid
  • Storm chances mid week on

Beautiful Open To The Week…High pressure and a dry air mass will result in lots of sunshine to open the week.  After a chilly first few weeks of May, we’ll see improvements in the mercury this week.  A dry air mass will still result in cool overnight lows through Tuesday morning, but we’ll shift to a much more humid regime for mid and late week.  Additionally, temperatures will continue to climb into the lower 80s for highs.  Prepare to sweat.

The increased moisture and an approaching frontal boundary will help ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the week.  We also have a close eye on Wednesday for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms.  While it won’t rain the entire time, prepare for “splash and dash” showers and storms into the important Memorial Day/ Indy 500 weekend…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/22/feeling-like-summer-3/

May 21

Busy Week Ahead Turns Active In The Weather Department…

After a damp and chilly open to the weekend, drier air began to infiltrate the region this afternoon and led to a brighter/ warmer finish to the day.  We’ll add more sunshine and tack on a few degrees to the afternoon high on Sunday.  It’ll be a phenomenal weather day across central IN, thanks to high pressure.  Get out and enjoy it!

HighPDry and sunny weather will greet us to open the new work week, along with temperatures that will approach the 80 degree mark by Tuesday.  Have yard work to get caught up on?  Take advantage of the early week weather.

Things will begin to change towards an unsettled regime as early as Tuesday evening/ Wednesday as the region gets into an increasingly moist southwesterly air flow.

SWFlowAs such, we’ll increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms in our mid week forecast.  It’ll also be a much more humid feel of things (really for the first time this year) as surface dew points surge into the upper 60s to lower 70s.  (In other words, “oppressive”).

DPFactor in PWATs (precipitable water values) zooming to 1.5″-1.8″ and the threat is there for localized heavy downpours around mid week.

gfs_pwat_noram2_19Additionally, we also note the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed western sections of our forecast area in a risk of severe weather Wednesday.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

day5probAs we progress into the late week period and on into the long holiday/ race weekend, a warm, humid, and unsettled time of things is expected to continue.  It’s tough to pinpoint specifics from this distance, but just keep note of the threat of thunderstorms into and through the upcoming busy weekend, along with warm (highs in the lower to middle 80s; lows in the upper 60s) and humid conditions.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/05/21/busy-week-ahead-turns-active-in-the-weather-department/

May 24

Beauty Of A Race Weekend Underway; Warmth And Humidity Builds Memorial Day And Beyond.

Here’s a video update discussing the next few days and looking at increasing warmth and humidity (and storm chances) as we move into the short work week ahead.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/24/beauty-of-a-race-weekend-underway-warmth-and-humidity-builds-memorial-day-and-beyond/

May 22

Indy Weather Recap And A Look Ahead

Wednesday was a stormy day across central Indiana, including damaging wind and hail. Flooding was also a concern in some areas.  Officially here at IndyWx.com HQ we picked up 2.21″ of rain Wednesday- most of which fell in a 3 hour time period.  Here’s a cool image from the fine folks at Weatherbell Analytics showcasing the heaviest rainfall.

nws_precip_conus2_2

Despite a couple of showers (primarily south of the city) later this evening the upcoming three days will be beautiful and rain-free!

hrrr_ref_indy_5

Temperatures are trending cooler when compared to 24 hours ago and as noted here by the 24 temperature difference, the cooler air to our north will continue to push south tonight.

t0

Temperatures and humidity levels will be below normal levels the next couple days before warmth slowly builds Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning will dip into the upper 40s for several communities.

hires_t2m_min_indy_14

True summer-like heat and humidity will lift north Memorial Day into Tuesday.  Note the temperature anomalies do an about face from Day 1 to Day 5.  Heat and humidity will be on the rebound for the unofficial start to summer, but, as noted above, should remain in the “comfy range” for race day.

D1

D5

With the increasing warmth and humidity will come a return of scattered shower and thunderstorm chances early next week.

As we look forward to early June, there are indications it could open on the warm side.  Note relative agreement between the CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System version 2), NAEFS, and Physical Science Division model.  Does the warm pattern stick and hold?  Not so fast, my friend… 😉

2014052212_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186wk1.wk2_20140521.NAsfcTt850_anom_f288_ussm

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/22/indy-weather-recap-and-a-look-ahead/

May 21

Damaging Hail Threat Looms For Central, Southern Indiana This Afternoon.

The morning is dawning pleasant and quiet, but things appear to get quite noisy and active around these parts later this afternoon.  A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass in place across the region and thunderstorms will erupt in rather explosive fashion as early as the early to mid afternoon hours.  Damaging straight line winds and large hail are of greatest concern.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights the region for an enhanced risk of large and destructive hail this afternoon.

day1otlk_1200

 

day1probotlk_1200_hail

Here’s a look at what the simulated forecast radar may resemble this afternoon, as always, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics:

Forecast Radar 1pm

Forecast Radar 1pm

 

Forecast Radar 4pm

Forecast Radar 4pm

 

 

Forecast radar 5pm

Forecast radar 5pm 

Forecast radar 7pm

Forecast radar 7pm

Now it’s important to note not everyone will see destructive severe weather (as is usually the case with any severe weather outbreak), but signals point towards the possibility of a rather significant and large scale severe hail event across central and southern portions of the state this afternoon and evening.  It’ll be very important to stay tuned to your favorite media and certainly heed all warnings that come out this afternoon.

We’ll clear things out nicely later tonight and Thursday and set the stage for an absolute beauty of a holiday and race weekend.  We forecast bright, sunny skies each day along with cool temperatures that slowly warm to the upper 70s for race day, itself.  We’ll introduce the next threat of storms for Memorial Day amidst bubbling true summer heat and humidity for next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/21/damaging-hail-threat-looms-for-central-southern-indiana-this-afternoon/

May 20

Severe Weather Video Brief Tonight-Wednesday

The region remains under fire for severe weather potential, primarily for damaging straight line wind and hail per latest thinking.  The video uncovers when you can expect this and looks ahead to the all-important Memorial Day and Indianapolis 500 weekend!

The region is under fire for severe potential Wednesday.

The region is under fire for severe potential Wednesday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/20/severe-weather-video-brief-tonight-wednesday/

May 19

Catching Up On A Monday Morning!

Happy Monday!  Here’s hoping everyone had a great weekend!  The week ahead will feature a much warmer, muggier regime as early as Tuesday.  Rain chances will increase Wednesday night into Thursday (early indications are for around half an inch of rain).  We’ll then (thankfully) dry things out and introduce a very pleasant air mass heading into the all-important Memorial Day and Race weekend.  We’ll have a full 7-day forecast posted here later this evening.  Make it a great Monday!

Southerly winds will transport 80 degree type air and a more humid feel by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Southerly winds will transport 80 degree type air and a more humid feel by Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

A cold front will deliver best rain chances of the week Wednesday night into Thursday.

A cold front will deliver best rain chances of the week Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/19/catching-up-on-a-monday-morning/

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