May 24
Updated 05.24.24 @ 2:40p Quick afternoon update on our latest thinking regarding the weekend and timing out the multiple storm threats. Longer term, it continue to look like a rather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/05/24/afternoon-thoughts-on-the-weekend/
May 16
Updated 05.16.23 @ 6:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/16/video-patchy-frost-threat-for-some-thursday-morning-warmer-late-month-trends/
May 25
Updated 05.25.22 @ 8:06a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/25/video-unsettled-through-friday-but-the-trade-off-will-be-well-worth-it-just-in-time-for-the-busy-holiday-race-weekend/
May 22
Updated 05.22.21 @ 8:55a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/05/22/video-all-eyes-on-the-upcoming-big-race-and-memorial-day-weekend-cooler-times-loom-to-open-june/
May 13
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/05/13/video-pattern-transition-takes-place-late-week-early-thoughts-on-the-indy-500-memorial-day-weekend/
May 26
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/26/video-couple-storms-around-today-watching-albertos-remnants-next-week/
May 22
As we grow closer to the big Indy 500 and Memorial Day weekend, forecast guidance continues to back away from what at one point looked like a rather unsettled weekend. Instead, it appears as if heat and humidity will grab the headlines. While we can’t rule out an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm (best chances of that coming Sunday and Monday), most will remain rain and storm free this weekend. Even if you’re one of the “lucky ones” to get under a storm, it’ll pass quickly and sunshine will return.
While “tropical mischief” approaches the central Gulf Coast this weekend, an upper level ridge will dominate our weather. This supports the drier trend the models are now going to and also will help boost temperatures. We forecast highs at or around the 90° mark Saturday through Memorial Day- well above the average high of 78°.
The other big story, especially for those planning to attend the race, will be increasing humidity over the weekend. Forecast dew points will approach and exceed the 70° mark Sunday afternoon, providing a very tropical feel to the air.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/22/the-heat-and-humidity-is-on-this-indy-500-memorial-day-weekend/
May 21
A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley this morning. We note ongoing showers across northern Indiana and Illinois, along with considerable cloudiness in association with the front. Also of interest is the disturbed weather off the FL peninsula this morning. Models differ on the evolution of things, but both the GFS and European model suggest we may have a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on our hands by the Memorial Day weekend. Is it more of a threat to the central Gulf Coast region, such as the European implies, or more of a Carolina event? It’s simply too early to know, but it’ll be fun to watch things play out this week.
Back here on the home front, a quiet start to our Monday will turn stormy at times this evening as the front nears. We think best coverage of showers and thunderstorms will come between 5p and 10p. There will be some winners and losers when it comes to rainfall amounts by midnight. Some can expect over an inch in the stronger storms while others may only see a tenth of an inch, or so. Something that must be taken into forecasts moving forward is the tendency of most model data (high resolution and global data alike) to “over forecast” rainfall amounts as of late. Also of note is for the potential of a couple of strong to severe storms to develop this evening. We always have to be wary of fronts draped across central Indiana as they’ve been known to help tornadic activity spin up. We’ve lost count of how many slight risk days with warm fronts nearby that turn busy… If you’re planning to be outdoors this evening, please have a means of receiving the latest watches and potential warnings that may be issued.
High pressure will build in for the midweek period and supply plentiful sunshine along with continued warmer than average conditions. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s (couple of degrees above average) with the drier air mass in place, but afternoon highs will continue to climb into the lower and middle 80s (around 10 degrees above average).
Good news this morning for all of the Race Day and Memorial Day weekend activities is that forecast models are backing off (seeing a common theme?) on the magnitude and overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms associated with our next system. While we’ll maintain widely scattered thunderstorms in our Saturday-Monday forecast, much more of the time period will be free of any rain and storm activity.
Longer term, thoughts are shifting towards the open to meteorological summer (where is this year going?!). The GFS ensemble suggests the overall warm pattern remains intact as we open a new season with widespread warmth expected through the first few days of the June.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/21/storms-rumble-in-this-evening-warm-open-to-meteorological-summer/
May 28
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/28/video-not-bad-for-race-day-but-storms-may-threaten-this-afternoon-in-spots/
May 27
Highlights:
Best Storm Chances Arrive Overnight…Low clouds and areas of fog should dissipate and give way to partial sunshine as we progress into the late morning and afternoon hours. A warm and humid feel will develop this afternoon.
The majority of the long race and holiday weekend will be free of any rain and storms, but we will continue to keep a close eye on the potential of more widespread storm activity:
Overnight tonight into early Sunday morning and again Sunday afternoon.
Data would place more emphasis on the potential of widespread severe weather across southern parts of the state tonight. Damaging wind and hail are the primary concerns. Additionally, as a cold front rumbles into the warm and moist airmass in place Sunday afternoon, additional strong to severe storms may develop. These will be more scattered in nature when compared to the overnight round of storms, but any one particular neighborhood across central Indiana is fair game for getting wet for a brief time Sunday afternoon.
The cold front will sweep through the state Sunday evening and usher in a less humid and pleasant Memorial Day. We’ll keep an eye on Tuesday into Wednesday for shower chances, but think we’ll remain mostly rain-free. The region will be under a fast-paced northwest flow aloft and models can struggle with specifics associated with weak disturbances in that northwest flow. The next chance of storms arrives Friday, along with a warmer feel.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/27/more-dry-time-than-not-but-keeping-a-close-eye-on-storm-chances/