You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: PNA
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-stage-set-for-record-cold-saturday-am-updated-long-range-thoughts-towards-memorial-day-weekend/
May 06
VIDEO: Record Territory; Looking Ahead To Late May…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-record-territory-looking-ahead-to-late-may/
Apr 21
Early-May Rumblings…
With a little over a week left in April, thoughts continue to focus more and more on May. While our official monthly outlook will come out later next week, we did want to present our early thoughts on the first week of the month.
In short, a rather persistent upper trough is expected to dominate the eastern 1/3 of the country into the 1st week of the month. This should keep things cooler than normal, overall.
This also lines up perfectly with Phase 2 of the MJO in early May. (After a week of disagreement, model data now agrees that the MJO should “flirt” with Phase 3 before cycling back into Phase 2 early May). We note this favors cooler than normal temperatures across our portion of the country.
From a precipitation perspective, there aren’t particularly strong signals for wetter/ drier than average conditions with Phase 2 in May- at least for the Ohio Valley.
The positive PNA, however, can support a bit more of an active storm track through our region and that’s what model data is showing from this distance.
The positive PNA, of course, also supports cooler than normal temperatures across our portion of the country…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/early-may-rumblings/
Apr 17
Late Season Wet Snow Storm For Northern Portions Of The Ohio Valley; Fresh Long Range Thoughts Into May…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/late-season-wet-snow-storm-for-northern-portions-of-the-ohio-valley-fresh-long-range-thoughts-into-may/
Mar 23
Teleconnections Still Aren’t Playing Nice; Does This Change In April?
Seemingly all winter, we’ve been unable to get the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, and MJO to cooperate and align. The end result is an overall pattern that has been unable to produce widespread, sustained cold. As we progress through the remainder of the month, the contradicting signals will continue.
Despite the negative NAO (a signal notorious for drawn out cold patterns this time of year), the deeply negative PNA and developing strongly positive EPO will hold off any significant cold. Even in the immediate term, notice how the signals are’t matching up (i.e. strongly positive NAO with a negative EPO).
The MJO is forecast to rumble into Phase 4 to close the month and this is also a phase that favors eastern ridging.
Given the above, to no surprise, the consensus of model data is for a warm, wet close to the month.
Does this pattern change in April and we actually see some alignment with our teleconnections? What about the MJO? Does the current movement continue and do we get into the colder Phase 1 as currently shown? Interesting times ahead as we sort through the data. Our official April Outlook will be online late week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/teleconnections-still-arent-playing-nice-does-this-change-in-april/