Updated 12.06.21 @ 7:30a
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Category: PNA
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Dec 04
Saturday Morning Long Range Musings And A Note On The Shorter Term Pattern…
Updated 12.04.21 @ 7:50a
With a current combo of the PNA, EPO, and Phase 6 of the MJO, there will be absolutely no denying a period of significant warmth (for the time of year) over the coming couple of weeks- especially during the Week 2 timeframe.
What we now look ahead towards is if, indeed, we can get the MJO into Phase 7 and, if so, with staying power. If so, do we continue to rumble into Phase 8 or try and sneak back into Phase 6? Those are questions that will be answered in the coming weeks and be a big reason in either pulling in a rather significant pattern shift towards cold, or keep things on the milder side. The hunch here is that we will get into 7 and 8, but the duration is in question. In any event, these are the temperature composites in Phase 7 (December) and Phase 8 (January).
In any event, one can see the potential on the table…
In the shorter term, the pattern in the week to 10 days ahead will take a turn towards the more active. Sunday will feature the first of (3) storm systems we’re tracking in the upcoming week, including the opportunity of wintry weather (more on that later this wknd) Tuesday into early Wednesday.
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Dec 02
VIDEO: Unseasonably Mild And Quiet For Now, But Are Changes Lurking?
Updated 12.02.21 @ 6:40p
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Nov 29
VIDEO: December Set To Open On A Quiet, Warmer Than Normal Note…
Updated 11.29.21 @ 7:30a
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Nov 27
Long Range Rambles On Iron Bowl Saturday…
Updated 11.27.21 @ 5:56a
The theme of the better part of the autumn season has been a story of contradicting signals- teleconnections and MJO alike. When we look ahead to the beginning of meteorological winter (Dec. 1st), it sure appears that will continue to be the story. For a brief moment the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) tries to go negative. This is interesting in and of itself as only a couple days ago the EPO was forecast positive during this period.
Meanwhile, the PNA is forecast negative to open the month.
The “wildcard” in this entire December outcome has to do with the MJO. If (still a big if) we can get things to amplify, then a whip around the historically December cold phases (7, 8, and 1) appear in order.
If the MJO doesn’t get in the game, the pattern, at best, will be one of continued transition (colder and warmer than normal periods) and that’s what the majority of ensemble guidance currently shows. Without a favorable MJO, it’s tough to see how meaningful, more sustained arctic air can get into the mix, locally.
As far as storm systems of note, we’re in an incredibly quiet period and that looks to continue through the upcoming 5-6 days. We’ll keep eyes to our north where weak systems will zip by in the fast flow aloft, but most, if not all, of these should remain to our north and east. It’s not until early next weekend (looks like Friday or early Saturday as of now) when our next system of more significance is slated to impact the area.
War Eagle and happy Iron Bowl Saturday! 😀
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