Category: PNA

VIDEO: Busy Short-Term Pattern; Drivers Behind The Regime Into Mid-January…

Updated 12.24.21 @ 7:35a

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The Beat Goes On And On And On…

Updated 12.22.21 @ 7:45a

Average temperatures on the 22nd of December include a high of 38.6° and a low of 24.7°. We’ll be slightly under those levels today in what can be termed an “island” of cold in a “sea” of warmth. In fact, the month is running close to 7° above normal thus far.

Highs today will top out in the lower to middle 30s for most of central Indiana.
December 2021 has featured widespread above normal temperatures, centered across the s-central Plains into the TN and OH Valleys.

As we look towards the all-important Christmas forecast, quiet weather will carry us into Christmas Eve. That’s when we’ll tighten the pressure gradient and build in southwest gusts of 30 to 40 MPH.

Those southwesterly winds will transport a few scattered light showers into the region Christmas Eve evening into Christmas Day, but these won’t be a big deal. “Scattered” and “light” are the key words.

What will be a big deal are the temperatures. In fact, latest guidance is pointing towards a new record high on Christmas Day. Should we see any sunshine get into the mix, this will be easily achievable.

Modeled high temperatures on Christmas afternoon.
A look at Christmas Day records in Indianapolis, IN

Thereafter, the same general pattern remains intact, locally (- PNA ridge), but notice the cold bleeding into the West between Christmas and New Year’s. Does this eventually make progress east? We think so as we get into January…

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VIDEO: Detailed Look At The Pattern To Close Out The Year And As We Head Into January; Shift to Cold Still On The Table?

Updated 12.19.21 @ 11a

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Long-Winded Discussion Diving Into The Pattern As We Welcome In 2022…

Updated 12.16.21 @ 6:07p

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New Thoughts On The Pattern Change On Deck…

Updated 12.14.21 @ 5:25p Wholesale pattern changes are always challenging to forecast- but equally as fascinating. All indications continue to point towards a rather significant shakeup in the regime towards…

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