Jun 03
Updated 06.03.22 @ 5a Confidence remains high in what will likely be a cooler than normal stretch of weather, overall, through the middle part of June. Wildcards thereafter include whether…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-outlook-june-pattern-and-looking-at-meteorological-summer-as-a-whole/
Apr 17
Updated 04.17.22 @ 7:41a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-happy-easter-rain-changes-to-wet-snow-monday-morning-chilly-pattern-emerges-yet-again-to-close-april-and-open-may/
Mar 02
Updated 03.02.22 @ 7:56p
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is back in the null, or neutral, phase.
That means it’s time to start leaning heavier on the teleconnection blend. This time of the year, that encompasses all, including the NAO.
As we look over the course of the upcoming 10-14 days, we note rather strong alignment between the teleconnections favoring a return of a cold pattern. That is, of course, after the taste of spring that will continue into the day Sunday (aside from one “speed bump” tomorrow).
We note the EPO, or East Pacific Oscillation, is forecast negative until around the 12th and then back towards neutral. This is a cold signal for the east, relative to average.
The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is forecast neutral through the bulk of the upcoming couple weeks. – Likely won’t have a significant impact on the overall pattern.
The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is forecast negative through the 13th before trending neutral. This should allow a southeastern ridge to remain in play to at least some degree which suggests a very active storm track into the Ohio Valley. As the colder air pushes east and runs up against the resistance from the southeastern ridge, late season wintry threats loom towards mid month.
Finally, the WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) is forecast strongly negative which also implies cold should try and fight east.
With all of that said above, we note the ensemble guidance (both the EPS and GEFS) brings the trough back into the central and eastern portion of the country as we move out of the Day 1-6 period and suggests it’s far too early to think about putting away those winter clothes, or even the snow removal equipment just yet…
Note the colder than normal temperatures spilling back into the region next week and the week beyond.
We’re likely far from finished with snow or wintry precipitation either…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-isnt-done-yet/
Feb 25
Updated 02.25.22 @ 5a
As another wintry event comes to an end, most Hoosiers are ready for spring. As we look ahead at the upcoming couple of weeks, there are signs that at least a “taste” of spring awaits. But, as is typically the case, there are contradicting signals.
The consensus from our big player teleconnections would suggest a warm-up (compared to normal) in the 5-10 day period, but note that the trends are favorable for cooler than normal temperatures thereafter.
Ensemble guidance shows the transition over the upcoming couple weeks.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) argues that eastern warmth should come back with a vengeance towards mid-March after the potential of a brief cooler setback. We note guidance is in better alignment taking things into Phase 5 and that should result in an expanding eastern ridge between the 10th and 15th.
The JMA Week 2 500mb pattern looks pretty good to me based on the MJO activity. Meanwhile, unseasonably cold air is likely to dump into the West and we’ll have ti monitor thing the pattern drivers closely once passed mid-month for the possibility of colder air to ooze east.
The transitional theme to the overall pattern should promote wetter than normal conditions over the upcoming 14-16 days as a whole.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-spring-is-that-you/
Feb 17
Updated 02.17.22 @ 7:35a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-spring-fling-early-next-week-but-a-lot-of-winter-is-left-in-the-tank/