Updated 11.29.21 @ 7:30a
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Category: PNA
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/29/video-december-set-to-open-on-a-quiet-warmer-than-normal-note/
Nov 27
Long Range Rambles On Iron Bowl Saturday…
Updated 11.27.21 @ 5:56a
The theme of the better part of the autumn season has been a story of contradicting signals- teleconnections and MJO alike. When we look ahead to the beginning of meteorological winter (Dec. 1st), it sure appears that will continue to be the story. For a brief moment the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) tries to go negative. This is interesting in and of itself as only a couple days ago the EPO was forecast positive during this period.
Meanwhile, the PNA is forecast negative to open the month.
The “wildcard” in this entire December outcome has to do with the MJO. If (still a big if) we can get things to amplify, then a whip around the historically December cold phases (7, 8, and 1) appear in order.
If the MJO doesn’t get in the game, the pattern, at best, will be one of continued transition (colder and warmer than normal periods) and that’s what the majority of ensemble guidance currently shows. Without a favorable MJO, it’s tough to see how meaningful, more sustained arctic air can get into the mix, locally.
As far as storm systems of note, we’re in an incredibly quiet period and that looks to continue through the upcoming 5-6 days. We’ll keep eyes to our north where weak systems will zip by in the fast flow aloft, but most, if not all, of these should remain to our north and east. It’s not until early next weekend (looks like Friday or early Saturday as of now) when our next system of more significance is slated to impact the area.
War Eagle and happy Iron Bowl Saturday! 😀
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/27/long-range-rambles-on-iron-bowl-saturday/
Nov 24
Long Range Update Looking At The 1st Half Of December…
Updated 11.24.21 @ 5:52p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/24/long-range-update-looking-at-the-1st-half-of-december/
Nov 20
VIDEO: Long Winded Saturday Morning Rambles…
Updated 11.20.21 @ 8a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/20/video-long-winded-saturday-morning-rambles/
Nov 18
VIDEO: Long Range Update; Keying In On A Post-Thanksgiving Storm…
Updated 11.18.21 @ 7:33a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/18/video-long-range-update-keying-in-on-a-post-thanksgiving-storm/
Nov 17
VIDEO: Brief Warmth Before Reality Returns; Shot Of Early Season Arctic Air Early Next Week…
Updated 11.17.21 @7a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/17/video-brief-warmth-before-reality-returns-shot-of-early-season-arctic-air-early-next-week/
Nov 11
A Step In The Right Direction, But Persistent Cold Pattern Still A Ways Off…
Updated 11.11.21 @ 6:55a
The long running idea here (since summer) has been one that has thought a rather sharp and significant colder pattern would emerge around Thanksgiving to help kick-start a fast start to meteorological winter. Guidance shows a couple of chilly air masses poised to settle into the region over the upcoming couple of weeks.
The coldest air of the season so far (lower 20s) awaits next week, but notice that guidance takes a transient approach with these colder shots. That’s for good reason when you look at the teleconnections. We’re still waiting on the PNA and EPO (MJO remains off the playing field- for now) to align in a manner that will drive a persistent cold pattern, but over the next couple of weeks, it doesn’t appear this will be the case. For those wanting a persistent cold pattern, you want to root for a positive PNA to compliment a negative EPO.
Rest assured the idea here isn’t changing regarding the fast and cold start to meteorological winter, but we’re rapidly approaching the period where this idea will be put to test. If by Thanksgiving week we still don’t see the movement expected with the EPO and PNA then it’ll be time to look for a Plan B.
One additional element with this is that we believe the MJO will become a driver in the expected cold start to the season (a byproduct of the sea surface temperature configuration and 2nd year Nina). It’ll be interesting to see if we can get the MJO out of the neutral phase and into position to make an impact driving an expected more persistent cold regime.
Potential is high in this setup. Now it’s time to simply sit back, wait, and watch for the hours of research back in the summer to either come to fruition or flop. 😃
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/11/a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-persistent-cold-pattern-still-a-ways-off/
Oct 31
November Opens With A “Hint” Of What May Be Lurking, But Pattern Likely Not Ready To Lock-In Just Yet…
Updated 10.31.21 @ 3:06p
First and foremost, here’s wishing you and your family a very happy, safe, and fun Halloween. Late October can sure deliver “tricks” in the weather department around these parts, but thankfully we’re going to be treated to very pleasant conditions this year as the kiddos hit the streets this evening.
As we look ahead to November, unseasonably chilly air will settle into the East through the week ahead. The MJO is not a factor presently and is forecast to remain in the “null phase” through the upcoming couple weeks (at least). As such, we’ll lean heavier on the EPO/ PNA tandem to drive the pattern. For a moment, these teleconnections will help power widespread unseasonably chilly air as they are aligned in such a manner (- EPO and +PNA), but as we head towards Week 2, note how both teleconnections head towards warmer phases.
Ensemble guidance sees the chilly short-term pattern moderating in the Week 2 time period and we agree.
Overall, the upcoming (10) days should also feature a much drier regime than what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Rainfall is forecast below normal through the first 1/3 of November.
While the growing season will come to an end in the week ahead and we continue to believe this chilly short-term pattern is a “hint” to what awaits towards the 2nd half of November, that PNA/ EPO combo suggests we’re not quite ready for the more sustained, and potentially dramatic, pattern change just yet…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/31/november-opens-with-a-hint-of-what-may-be-lurking-but-pattern-likely-not-ready-to-lock-in-just-yet/
Oct 23
VIDEO: Tracking Multiple Significant Storm Systems In The Coming Days; Pattern Change On The Horizon?
Updated 10.23.21 @ 10:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/23/video-tracking-multiple-significant-storm-systems-in-the-coming-days-pattern-change-on-the-horizon/
Oct 17
VIDEO: Quiet Open To The Week; Next System Arrives Thursday Followed By Coolest Air So Far This Fall…
Updated 10.17.21 @ 11:10a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/17/video-quiet-open-to-the-week-next-system-arrives-thursday-followed-by-coolest-air-so-far-this-fall/