Updated 11.15.22 @ 7:43a
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Category: PNA
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/15/video-short-term-snow-update-pattern-drivers-that-should-dominate-the-bulk-of-this-years-holiday-season/
Nov 10
Long Range Outlook: Jab, Jab, Boom?
Updated 11.10.22 @ 9:18a
After a warm open to November, things are progressing to plan as our much anticipated mid month shift to cold takes place.
A quick glance at the teleconnections over the course of the next couple weeks (remember, we still lean heaviest on the PNA and EPO at this time of the year) reveals agreement in the short term of the cold shift but note movement back towards neutral towards the end of the period.
While this may give reason for panic to some, we note the MJO scheduled to move out of Phase 8 (currently), whip across the “null” phase before moving into textbook phases for eastern cold for late November (Phases 5-6).
The analogs for such phases this time of year will make winter weather fans salivate.
Despite this setup laid out above, the new JMA Weeklies want none of my idea of a cold start to December. Despite the chilly look Weeks 1-2, the model rolls right into an eastern ridge by early December. It’s safe to say as of now, I remain in the cold camp, especially given what the MJO amplitude should provide as we rumble into the last month of the year. Nonetheless, it’s less than ideal to see a normally trusted model in such disagreement and we’ll have to keep an eye on trends over the course of the next couple weeks…
Perhaps the model is seeing a transitional move through Phase 7? That would allow a milder pattern in briefly, but again I would reiterate the look of what should be an amplified MJO as we move into December and a jaunt through Phase 8, 1, and 2 is likely in my opinion. Just for fun, this is what those phases provide.
One way or another, we have a lot of work (and fun) ahead. My hunch tells me any long range (what would currently be Week 4 in particular) data will be forced to cool, and perhaps significantly so, as time draws closer.
In the meantime, don’t sleep on next week. There should be at least one attempt for some sort of winter weather maker into the Ohio Valley, if not two.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/10/long-range-outlook-jab-jab-boom/
Nov 03
LR Update: Alignment For A Wintry Stretch Through The Holiday Season?
Updated 11.03.22 @ 9:43
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/03/lr-update-alignment-for-a-wintry-stretch-through-the-holiday-season/
Nov 02
VIDEO: Saturday Cold Front; Chatter Around The November Pattern Evolution…
Updated 11.02.22 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/02/video-saturday-cold-front-chatter-around-the-november-pattern-evolution/
Oct 30
VIDEO: Unsettled Weather Continues For The All Important Trick Or Treat Hours; Quiet And Warm Conditions Return As We Open November…
Updated 10.30.22 @ 9:58a Timing isn’t on our side as chances of rain will continue for the all important trick or treat hours. More on this and a look ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/30/video-unsettled-weather-continues-for-the-all-important-trick-or-treat-hours-quiet-and-warm-conditions-return-as-we-open-november/
Oct 25
The Expected November Transition…
Updated 10.25.22 @ 5:08p
(A friendly reminder that our annual Winter Outlook will be posted Friday morning).
When we look at our top 2 analog years (’75-’76 and ’00-’01), we note a couple of common themes in November: cooler than normal anomalies were favored across the West while the East was favored warmer than normal. Note the temperature scale differences at the key on the bottom of both images.
Another common theme in these Novembers? Cold started bleeding east mid and late month, which eventually set up cold, wintry Decembers and a fast start to winter across the Mid West, Great Lakes, and East.
The new European Weeklies hold the ridge east through the 1st half of November. Given the EPO, PNA, and MJO (not to mention analogs above), there’s no reason to disagree with this. In fact, early November will likely still include some 70° days, if not flirt with 75°+.
Notice what transpires as we rumble into late November and early December: A totally different look at 500mb as a trough begins to form in the exact same place the persistent ridge will reside to open the month. Winter enthusiasts have to also love the look of high latitude blocking.
Wholesale pattern “transitions” can be finicking and will require close attention as we get to mid month and closer to Thanksgiving. From this distance, there’s no reason not to think our longstanding idea of a mid month colder shift has merit. Then, it’ll be time to understand how the vastly different sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) may impact the December and quick start to winter idea.
More on this and the winter as a whole Friday morning!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/25/the-expected-november-transition/
Oct 24
VIDEO: “Bump” In The Road In What’s Otherwise An Amazing Stretch Of Late October Weather…
Updated 10.24.22 @ 7:34a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/24/video-bump-in-the-road-in-whats-otherwise-an-amazing-stretch-of-late-october-weather/
Oct 20
LR Update: Late October Into Mid November Pattern Progression…
Updated 10.20.22 @ 5:48p
It’s been a chilly October. Officially, IND is running more than 4° below average month-to-date. It’s also been dry. We’re running close to 2″ below normal in the rainfall department.
When we look at the pattern drivers, it’s hard to see a way for there to be any sort of prolonged chill (compared to normal) over the next couple of weeks. That’s not to say there won’t be “pops” of cooler air here and there, but given the EPO and PNA state below, the upper pattern should favor more persistent ridging across the eastern portion of the country as opposed to the troughiness of late.
The MJO (likely a major driver this upcoming winter) is forecast to move out of Phase 6 into Phase 7 late October.
Phase 7 favors a western trough and associated cooler temperatures compared to average across the western portion of the country.
To no surprise, modeling sees the ‘mean’ trough and ridge placement in exact positions that we’d expect given the primary pattern drivers laid out above.
Week 1 500mb
Week 2 500mb
It’s also a continued overall drier than normal pattern, locally, over the next couple of weeks (in the face of a midweek storm system that should at least provide some unsettled weather the middle of next week- more on this in our short-term products).
As we look ahead towards November, there are potential changes with respect to the primary pattern drivers that could shift a colder regime back east. Note we think the month opens warmer than normal, but that things begin to take a turn towards the colder towards mid-month. Interestingly, the longer range teleconnection forecasts see the EPO heading negative by mid-Nov and the PNA heading neutral to positive. These are encouraging signs our idea is on the right path and perhaps that a colder pattern emerges during the lead-up to the holidays this year.
The NEW European Weeklies develop a 500mb look that features plenty of high latitude blocking by mid-November and should this be correct (we think it is), we should see the model trend colder across the East during this time period. Needless to say, this is the period we’ll continue to keep close tabs on…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/20/lr-update-late-october-into-mid-november-pattern-progression/
Oct 18
VIDEO: JMA Long Range Discussion; Welcoming Warmth Back Just In Time For The Weekend…
Updated 10.18.22 @ 4:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/18/video-jma-long-range-discussion-welcoming-warmth-back-just-in-time-for-the-weekend/
Oct 17
VIDEO: Challenging Lake Effect Event This Evening-Tuesday Morning; Big Warm-Up On The Way…
Updated 10.17.22 @ 7:43a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/10/17/video-challenging-lake-effect-event-this-evening-tuesday-morning-big-warm-up-on-the-way/