Updated 05.04.22 @ 7:54a
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Category: Plant ‘22
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/04/video-wet-close-to-the-work-week-before-a-vastly-improved-weekend-summer-like-pattern-next-week/
May 03
Going Back-To-Back; Still Looking To Dry Things Out This Weekend. Pattern Change On Deck Mid-Month?
Updated 05.03.22 @ 7:37a
Rain and embedded thunder is widespread across the state this morning.
Most of the morning round of rain and storms will end from southwest to northeast (may linger through a good chunk of the day across northern parts of the state) by late morning. Should we work any sort of sunshine into the mix, that will only further aid in destabilizing the local atmosphere for what will likely be a 2nd round of storms this afternoon into the early evening hours.
High resolution guidance shows this 2nd round of storms firing up around 2 to the 3 o’clock. A few of these could become strong to severe, especially from Indianapolis and points east.
Thankfully, things will quieten down quickly come evening. Most, if not all, of the storms should be to our east by 8p. That will then set the stage for a much more pleasant day Wednesday, complete with sunshine.
Enjoy it as our next storm system will arrive quickly Thursday. After a bit of sun to start our day, clouds will quickly increase and showers and thunderstorms will follow by afternoon. As low pressure traverses the Ohio Valley, unsettled weather will persist Friday.
A drier and cooler air mass will work in here for the weekend. By that time, additional rainfall amounts in excess of 2″ can be expected across many central IN communities.
Saturday will feature dry conditions and improving skies as we progress through the day, complete with a northeast breeze. Dry conditions should also remain in place for Mother’s Day.
Longing for a quieter, more pleasant pattern? You may be in luck as we rumble into mid-May. An upper level ridge is expected to expand across the region which will go a long way in helping provide a stretch of drier and significantly warmer weather. In fact, we should see a “taste” of summer towards the early and middle parts of next week. Hang in there, friends.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/05/03/going-back-to-back-still-looking-to-dry-things-out-this-weekend-pattern-change-on-deck-mid-month/
Apr 28
VIDEO: Wet Pattern Develops To Close April And Open May…
Updated 04.28.22 @ 7a The periods of light rain over the next couple of days will give way to the potential of stronger storms Saturday evening and sets the tone…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/28/video-wet-pattern-develops-to-close-april-and-open-may/
Apr 19
VIDEO: The Trend Is Your Friend…
Updated 04.19.22 @ 7:47a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/19/video-the-trend-is-your-friend/
Apr 14
Long Range Discussion: Never Trust A Sustained Warm Up With A Negative NAO This Time Of Year…
Updated 04.14.22 @ 5:23p
While we should see a period of significant moderation in the 8-10 day period, yet again, this is likely to only be a 2-4 day, transitional spike. This is likely a byproduct of the lag effect of a positive NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), but notice what happens longer term: a moderately negative NAO returns as we go into next weekend and beyond.
The transitional warm-up that will show itself next weekend and into early Week 2 will likely take a back seat to a renewed chilly (by late April standards) time of things before we close out the month. Ensemble guidance is picking up on this.
Then you add in the expected MJO movement over the next couple of weeks. Guidance shows us moving into Phase 1 late month. This is a phase in April that loves to drive more of a tendency for a trough over the East.
Longer range models, including the JMA and CFSv2 Weeklies, show the cooler look to wrap up the month, relative to normal. Given the alignment between the NAO and MJO, it’s hard to argue with this idea.
There will be more frequent opportunities for late season frost compared to normal as we wrap up April. Precipitation over the next couple of weeks should balance out close to average as a whole.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/14/long-range-discussion-never-trust-a-sustained-warm-up-with-a-negative-nao-this-time-of-year/
Apr 02
VIDEO: Busy Pattern This Week; Wintry Conditions Next Weekend…
Updated 04.02.22 @ 8:46a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/02/video-busy-pattern-this-week-wintry-conditions-next-weekend/
Apr 01
VIDEO: Active Time Of Things As We Open Up April…
Updated 04.01.22 @ 8:07a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/04/01/video-active-time-of-things-as-we-open-up-april/
Mar 31
Long Range Update: The Roller Coaster That Is Spring…
Updated 03.31.22 @ 7:09a
As we look ahead over the next couple weeks, a rather active pattern is expected to continue, including multiple storm systems that will likely impact our area every few days. This will likely also result in brief but significant spikes of warmth ahead of the system (example: yesterday’s high of 78°) in what otherwise will be a period of cooler than normal conditions.
Despite the active nature of the pattern, precipitation should be pretty close to average through the middle of April, locally. The heavier rainfall, relative to average, will be confined to the Gulf Coast.
It’s been a while since we talked about the MJO and that’s due to it being a non-factor over the past couple weeks residing in the null, or neutral, phase.
Other teleconnections (namely the NAO and EPO) have supported the overall cooler regime of late. However, these drivers are in the process of flipping to states (positive) that will at least likely attempt to drive more sustained warmth our way as we approach mid-April. Modeling may be catching on to that as well. Note when looking at 5-day increments, the ‘mean’ trough position is looking to dump the trough into the West closer to mid April.
Moral of the story is to hang in there. Though we still yet have additional chilly times to get through over the next 10-14 days, there’s reason to begin buying into the potential of more sustained warmth trying to take hold towards mid and late month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/03/31/long-range-update-the-roller-coaster-that-is-spring/
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