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Category: Plant ‘20
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/20/video-turning-briefly-warmer-before-another-chilly-plunge/
Jun 13
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
I. Unseasonably cool weather dominates the area to open the period with a late warming trend.
II. Widespread dry conditions persist through the upcoming week.
Forecast Period: 06.13.20 through 06.20.20
A very quiet weather pattern is ahead through the forecast period. A weak disturbance will move southeast this morning across the region. While northern parts of the state picked up measurable rainfall this morning, most of this will scoot east of immediate central Indiana. This system will also serve to reinforce the cool pattern in place into early parts of next week. In fact, overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s as far south as central Indiana. Anyone else craving fall?! The pattern beyond will feature a warming trend along with continued dry weather. Heat and humidity will build in earnest late in the period along with an opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms next weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Between now and then, enjoy the quiet conditions.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/13/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-10/
Jun 06
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. Cristobal’s remnant moisture
II. Strong cold front delivers unseasonably cool close to the week
Forecast Period: 06.06.20 through 06.13.20
Though it’ll still be a warm weekend, less humid air will be welcomed with open arms. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend and as we open up the new work week, including plentiful sunshine. All eyes through the weekend will be on the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal will slowly strengthen over the next 24-36 hours before making landfall as a strong tropical storm along the southeast LA coastline. While we still don’t think we’ll be directly impacted by Cristobal’s remnants (those will track through the MS Valley and into the Upper Midwest), the fetch off the Gulf Coast directly ahead of a midweek cold front will lead to better chances of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday. That aforementioned cold front will be the first of two fronts to sweep the region before week’s end. The second front that blows through Friday will usher in a fall-like airmass next weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/06/06/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-9/
May 30
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. May ends and June opens with well below normal temperatures and humidity levels.
II. Summer pattern emerges during the 2nd half of next week, along with a return of hefty storms.
Forecast Period: 05.30.20 through 06.06.20
Cool, Canadian high pressure will dominate our weekend weather, continuing into early parts of next week. Enjoy the refreshing air while we have it as an upper ridge will expand east, providing a return of warm to hot and muggy weather by the 2nd half of the forecast period. This transition will also be met with the opportunity of “ridge riding” thunderstorm clusters into the Ohio Valley by mid to late week. These clusters will potentially deliver severe wind and heavy rain and the overall threat will certainly warrant our attention as we move through the next couple of days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/30/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-8/
May 28
Thursday Morning Rambles: Tropical Air Gets The Boot; Eyeing A Warm Stretch Of Weather Through The 1st Half Of June?
Our short-term weather pattern will be dominated by an upper level low (this morning) and a cold front (tomorrow). High pressure will build into the region over the weekend and help supply gorgeous conditions.
The best opportunity for widespread rain over the next week will take place today as the upper low impacts the region. With a tropical airmass in place, this feature will be able to produce a good soaking for most of central Indiana. Widespread moderate rain this morning will continue for the next few hours before being replaced with more scattered activity during the afternoon/ evening.
The next feature we’ll contend with is the cold front itself and it’s still slated for a Friday passage. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible ahead of the boundary but coverage shouldn’t be nearly as widespread as what we’re seeing this morning. Once the front blows through tomorrow afternoon, much drier and cooler air will arrive and stick around for a few days.
Dry conditions will stick around through the weekend and into early next week to result in perfect weather to get some of those outdoor chores knocked out before the warm, muggy stuff returns.
Speaking of that, as we look ahead, we’ll replace the refreshing air with a return of warmth and humidity during the 2nd half of next week. Note how the European ensemble shows the transition.
The JMA Weeklies (fresh in this morning) also show the warmth that looms through the better part of the 1st half of June.
We’ll have to keep close tabs on exactly where the upper level ridge sets up in the Week 2 time period. This will mean the difference between “splash and dash” storm coverage as the mugginess returns vs. more widespread, organized activity in what would be a northwest flow around the periphery of the ridge. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/28/thursday-morning-rambles-tropical-air-gets-the-boot-eyeing-a-warm-stretch-of-weather-through-the-1st-half-of-june/
May 22
Long Range Update: Warmth Once Again Takes A Back Seat To Cooler Times; Drier Open To June?
With meteorological summer looming around the corner, will the pattern follow suit? At least in the short-term, warmth and humidity will have things feeling very much like summer, but this warmer regime likely won’t hold. The culprit? You guessed it- developing negative EPO, strongly positive PNA, and the MJO re-amplifying with eyes sets on the cooler phases to open June.
After a chilly May (month-to-date), most will welcome this weekend’s heat and humidity with open arms! This is courtesy of finally kicking the “cut off” low to the curb and replacing its’ influence with an upper level ridge. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through the short-term, but coverage will be of the “splash and dash” variety- very typical of summer-time!
This warmer regime will be fleeting as a combination of ingredients align in a manner to drive cooler, more refreshing air back into the region as we close May and open June. Most notably this is being driven by a negative EPO, strongly positive PNA, and the MJO set to roll through Phases 7 and 8 during said period.
Accordingly, we note the models shifting things up quite significantly as we go into the Week 2 time period (May 29th-June 4th).
The cooler regime will likely also come with a drier overall pattern to open June, at least compared to average.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/22/long-range-update-warmth-once-again-takes-a-back-seat-to-cooler-times-drier-open-to-june/
May 16
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. Cut off upper low will keep things cool and unsettled for much of the upcoming week across the East.
II. Summer-like heat is poised to expand across a good chunk of the area around and just after Memorial Day weekend.
Forecast Period: 05.16.20 through 05.23.20
Most of our Saturday will feature beautiful weather to spend time outdoors. In fact, we’re not expecting a drop of rain across central Indiana through the daytime. Add in highs around 80° and a gorgeous day is in the making! Get out and enjoy it!
Weather conditions will begin to go downhill tonight and Sunday as periods of showers and thunderstorms develop. Locally heavy rain is expected. This is all thanks to an area of low pressure and associated cold front that will help pull in a much cooler airmass as we progress through early week. After the heavy rain threat tonight into Sunday, the showers that fall early week (associated with the upper low) will be more of the nuisance variety.
That much cooler air mass will linger through a good portion of the week before an upper level ridge expands into the area around Memorial Day weekend. This will deliver a more summer-like airmass to the immediate area.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/16/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-7/
May 11
From One Extreme To The Other…
The work week will get off to the same unusually chilly start we’ve begun to grow accustomed to. Additional frost and freeze threats are present Tuesday and Wednesday mornings if skies can clear (big if there). However, significant changes loom as we flip the page to the second half of the work week and longer term indications suggest we’re well on our way to a true summer-like feel by week 2.
Note how bullish the European ensemble is regarding the significant pattern flip over the next couple weeks.
A lot of this is driven by a change in the EPO. This is the kind of pattern that stands to at least threaten sending high temperatures soaring to between 85°-90° between Week 2 and month’s end. Talk about a contrast from the late winter and early spring-like chill to open the month!
The transition in the pattern is likely to be met with a much more active storm track through the area beginning midweek. There will be a threat of locally heavy rain and stronger storms that will continue at times into the weekend and beyond into next week, as well.
For a month that’s gotten off to a dry start, we’ll likely recover quickly with this wetter regime that accompanies the flip to warm.
We continue to believe most central Indiana neighborhoods will see between 1.75”-2.25” late week into the weekend, but there will be locally heavier amounts. The majority of data also suggests a corridor of wetter than normal conditions sets up from the Plains into the northern Ohio Valley/ Great Lakes into Week 2.
Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/11/from-one-extreme-to-the-other/
May 10
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. Additional threat of late season frost/ freeze early in the forecast period.
II. Transition in the pattern midweek signals a significant flip from the record chill across the East to one much more typical for mid-late May. Meanwhile, the West will turn much cooler.
Forecast Period: 05.10.20 through 05.17.20
An area of low pressure and associated cold front will blast across the Ohio Valley during the next 24 hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are already entering the state from the west this morning. As we progress into the afternoon, we’ll watch for the potential of a couple skinny lines of thunderstorms try to develop across central and eastern parts of the state. A couple of these storms could quickly pulse to strong – severe levels and pose a threat of damaging straight line winds and hail. Once the front scoots to our east, we’ll notice a much colder (yet again) northwesterly breeze and drier conditions to open the work week. There will be a threat of another frost and freeze by Tuesday morning. Patchy frost is also possible Wednesday morning, especially across east-central parts of the state.
Thereafter, our region will undergo a rather significant flip in the overall pattern. As a result, an airmass much more typical of mid-May will engulf the eastern portion of the country. With the significantly warmer conditions will also come a few rounds of rain and thunder during the mid-late week stretch. Locally heavy rain is likely towards the end of the period including the threat of additional strong thunderstorms in the Thursday-Saturday time frame.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/10/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-6/
May 01
Welcome To May: Threat Of Record Cold Week 2…
A gorgeous Friday is dialed up complete with plentiful sunshine and temperatures warming quickly from the mid and upper 30s into the mid and upper 60s.
A couple weak impulses of energy will scoot through the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours and while they will spark a few showers/ embedded thunder predawn Saturday and again Saturday night, most of the daytime hours Saturday will also feature dry conditions.
That begins to change Sunday as widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to rumble across central Indiana, especially during the morning hours. Locally heavy downpours are likely.
A quick 1”-1.25” is a good bet across the heart of the state with this system Sunday morning.
Dry conditions will quickly return Sunday evening into Monday thanks to high pressure briefly building back into the region. This will lead to a pleasant open to the work week with highs topping out in the middle 60s.
Unsettled weather returns as early as Tuesday with increased chances of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front.
Though we’ll certainly turn cooler for the middle to latter part of the week, this will only be a precursor to what lies ahead behind yet another strong cold front late next week.
The air will likely challenge records into the Week 2 time frame (May 8th-14th), including the threat and increased likelihood of late season frost/ freezes. We also likely haven’t seen the last of the snow flakes for the season either…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/01/welcome-to-may-threat-of-record-cold-week-2/