Mar 04
This evening’s long range video update discusses the pattern drivers behind the late-March weather pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/04/video-all-access-long-range-update/
Mar 03
Snow will overspread central Indiana through the late morning hours into the afternoon.
While the overall idea where the accumulating snow would fall was a good one from early week, our initial expected amounts won’t come to fruition. The reason? The storm system is much weaker and faster moving than originally modeled.
Accordingly, this is a 1″ to 2″ type event for most of the area. The majority of the snow will fall from noon to 5p.
This same storm system will be responsible for a severe weather outbreak, including the possibility of a couple of strong tornadoes, across the Deep South this afternoon.
Back here on the home front, MUCH colder air will pour into the region this evening, remaining in place into the new work week. Back-to-back nights with lows in the upper 0s to lower 10s can be expected across central Indiana Monday and Tuesday mornings.
This is all part of the overall colder than normal first half of March, powered by the SOI crash (several week ago), deeply negative EPO, and MJO rumbling through the cold phases.
Additional storm dates to keep note off include Thursday night into Friday (more of a wintry threat with the 3/7-3/8 system) and Saturday into Sunday (potential strong thunderstorms with the system on 3/9-3/10).
Looking ahead, it still appears the mid-March warm-up is on track as the EPO flips to positive.
With that warm-up will also come a return of heavier precipitation events and a continued overall active storm track across the region. Precipitation looks to run above average for the mid-month stretch.
We’ll dig deeper early week on what lies ahead as we close the month of March and look ahead towards April…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/03/snow-update-and-looking-ahead-towards-mid-march/
Feb 28
Here’s our latest thinking around this weekend’s winter storm and a long range update through the month of March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/video-updated-thoughts-around-this-weekends-winter-storm-and-the-pattern-through-march/
Feb 28
The updated JMA Weeklies are in and we wanted to take a moment to review those with you this morning. A more extensive long range post will arrive tonight. In addition, we’ll also have an updated video discussion around the potential (and increasing likelihood) of a winter storm this weekend later this evening.
Week 1
In agreement with the majority of the other data, the model overwhelms the pattern with unseasonably cold air. Note the anomalous pattern, including strong AK ridge that is helping “dislodge” the late season arctic air. The other item that stands out? The southeast ridge is no longer (for now).
Week 2
Cold is forecast to linger in the Week 2 timeframe, but it’s beginning to modify from the early month bitter shot. Secondly, the high latitude pattern has completely reversed from Week 1 (note the lower heights) and the southeast ridge is showing signs of re-emerging.
Weeks 3-4
Eastern ridging is shown during the mid to late month stretch and gives further reason to believe our mid month warm-up idea has merit. With this, the model also delivers an overall wetter pattern for the 2nd half of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies-do-we-pull-out-of-the-unseasonably-cold-pattern-later-in-march/
Feb 26
Discussing the reasons behind the frigid open to March and the mid-month changes that await…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/26/all-access-video-looking-deeper-into-the-reasons-to-the-cold-open-to-march-mid-month-changes/
Feb 25
Average temperatures through the 1st (5) days of the month include highs of 46 F and a low of 29 F at Indianapolis. Instead, a frigid pattern will grip the region as we move through early March, including highs that will likely only top out in the lower to middle 20s and lows in the upper single digits to lower 10s as we move through the first week of the month (coldest centered on Sunday through next Wednesday).
Should we get any sort of snow down during the period (still up for debate as of this evening), lows will likely approach 0 F. The best opportunity for accumulating snow over the upcoming week would come Friday night into Saturday, but confidence remains low. Thereafter, we prefer the “suppressed” ideas currently portrayed by modeling as more meaningful winter storm threats impact the lower Ohio/ TN Valley and southern Appalachian region- especially with such an anomalously cold pattern in place.
Speaking of cold, the deep and expansive snowpack across the central and northern Plains won’t allow the late season taste from the arctic to modify as much as it may otherwise. As the frigid air mass settles southeast, below zero wind chill values are a good bet early next week across the northern half of the state. “Tap the breaks” on meteorological winter kicking off March 1st…
With that said, the NAO and AO are expected to remain positive and while initially “trumped” by the significantly negative EPO, this will trend positive by mid-month. These all suggest the cold is limited and that there shouldn’t be any change to the idea that we really begin to feel more spring-like by the middle of March. This is backed up by the continued idea that the MJO rumbles into Phase 4 by mid-March, as well (again argues for warmth).
Sure enough, longer range models show the ridging and associated warmer times ahead:
It should be noted that with the mean trough position taking up shop across the western portion of the country mid-March, not only should we moderate, but we should also see a return of wetter/ stormier times. With the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) running above normal, early season severe weather outbreaks will have to be closely monitored…
The new European Weeklies in this evening also back up the idea of an unseasonably cold 1st half of the month giving way to milder conditions by mid month. The model paints a drier than normal pattern over the Ohio Valley and Mid West over the next couple of weeks before wetter signals return by the middle of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/25/frigid-open-to-march-and-late-month-musings-reviewing-the-new-european-weeklies/
Feb 25
The potential of another high wind event this weekend is on the table and we look ahead to a much colder than average open to March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/25/all-access-video-does-another-high-wind-event-loom-this-weekend/
Feb 24
Top wind gusts today have reached 66 MPH at IND with numerous reports of downed trees and power lines throughout the northern half of Indiana.
As we look ahead through the upcoming week, a couple of rather minor systems may deal light precipitation to the area, but it’s what lies ahead next weekend that’s already drawing interest. Unfortunately, modeling is trying it’s best for a “repeat” high wind event next Saturday.
The overall setup is eerily similar as a rapidly strengthening surface low tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region. This setup would once again support 50+ MPH gusts.
With the pattern change underway at this point, colder air will be more readily available and backside snow may be more “meaningful” next weekend. That’s something we’ll be keeping a close eye on.
Winter weather enthusiasts will have a couple of weeks of at least being on the playing field for the possibility of late season accumulating snow, but it continues to look like that window closes quickly by mid-March as a true spring pattern takes hold.
For those who watch the operational data with each and every update (sometimes as much as 4 times per day)- tread with caution. While significant late season winter storms can result from such a pattern change that’s underway, it’s impossible to worry about specifics in this type of regime until within 4-6 days.
It would appear the pattern would support potential “fun and games” next Saturday, the 2nd, and possibly again in the March 5th-6th time frame.
Enjoy it while you have it, lovers of winter… Signals continue to point towards a significant shift to warmer times for the 2nd half of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/24/potential-wintry-mischief-through-early-march-late-month-changes/
Feb 23
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/23/saturday-afternoon-video-update-damaging-winds-develop-late-tonight-more-conversation-around-the-march-pattern/
Feb 16
2019 IndyWx.com Spring Outlook
Forecaster: Team; Date Issued: 02.16.19
Last spring was a tale of two seasons in itself. March (featured a foot of snow) and April were significantly colder than normal and then we shifted things to summer in May (the last month of meteorological spring was close to 10 degrees above normal). As a whole, it was a quiet severe weather season.
Despite the wild swings, at the end of the day, things “balanced out” nicely across the central Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
As we look ahead to what the 2019 version holds, here are a few headlines that have our attention:
I. Weak Nino is behaving more like a Nina (Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern can be thanked for this).
II. Neutral NAO is expected
III. Neutral PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
In addition, we’re paying special attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. A warmer than average GOM can most certainly lead to a more “hyper” severe weather season as spring gets going.
The late winter/ early spring drought monitor can give a hint where early warmth may try and get going. However, this year, we can’t rely on this tool as the Plains and East, including the heart of the #AGbelt, have seen copious amounts of moisture over the winter.
Let’s look at what the model guidance is printing out for meteorological spring:
JMA
CFSv2
JAMSTEC
European Seasonal
Summary
We anticipate a slightly warmer than average spring season across not only central Indiana, but the Mid West and Ohio Valley region, as a whole. A weak El Nino is expected to persist into the upcoming summer and the conditions typically associated with such should eventually show themselves (as opposed to more of a Nina-like flavor now) through the spring. We agree with the consensus of model guidance above that March is likely to feature the coldest temperatures, relative to normal, and that’s primarily due to what should be a colder 1st half of the month before more bonafide spring conditions take hold the 2nd half of the month. Precipitation is anticipated to run near average, if not slightly below average, levels through the spring. As for severe weather, we expect a much busier season than last year, especially with the warm SSTs lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/16/2019-spring-outlook/