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Category: Plant ’19
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/23/all-access-video-july-outlook/
Jun 19
Concerned For Significant Flooding Tonight Into Thursday…
The day is opening dry across central Indiana (and sunny for some), but another heavy rain event looms by the end of the day. The culprit? A stalled front remains draped across central Indiana and a surface wave will move along this boundary this afternoon into tonight. A “juicy” airmass will remain intact across the region with precipitable water values topping out at 2.5″ across the southern half of the state. This will promote any shower or thunderstorm that develops to drop very heavy rainfall in a short period of time (1″ to 2″ per hour at times).
As the surface wave interacts with the tropical air mass in place, widespread showers and thunderstorms will blossom across the region through the afternoon into tonight. Rain will continue into Thursday afternoon.
We’re still also concerned for severe weather this afternoon and evening, including a couple of tornadoes across the southern half of the state.
By the time the rain comes to an end Thursday evening, widespread 2″ to 4″ can be expected across the heart of the state, including Indianapolis, itself.
If that’s not enough, heavy rain and thunderstorms will return late Friday and continue in an “off and on” fashion straight through the weekend.
Unfortunately, some central Indiana rain gauges can expect to pick up an additional 5″+ of rain between this afternoon and next Tuesday…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/19/concerned-for-significant-flooding-tonight-into-thursday/
Jun 18
VIDEO: Latest Thoughts On Tomorrow’s Severe Potential And Looking Ahead Through The 1st Half Of July…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/18/video-latest-thoughts-on-tomorrows-severe-potential-and-looking-ahead-through-the-1st-half-of-july/
Jun 18
VIDEO: Severe Threat Continues To Increase Wednesday PM…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/18/video-severe-threat-continues-to-increase-wednesday-pm/
Jun 17
Only Going To Get Worse Before It Gets Better…
The pattern into the medium range period continues to look like a broken record: excessively wet. Unfortunately, flood and flash flood warnings will continue to likely be issued over the next 7-10 days on an almost daily basis for at least portions of the immediate viewing area.
Current Flash Flood Guidance can be found below:
In most cases across central and southern Indiana, we’re only talking about rainfall of 1″ to 1.5″ in an hour’s timeframe that will cause flash flooding. 3 hour guidance is in the 1.5″ to 2″ range.
Tuesday will feature less overall aerial coverage of showers and thunderstorms (widely scattered) as compared to the past few days. However, we’re tracking (2) surface waves that will result in more widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday and again over the weekend into early next week with a moisture-rich, tropical southwesterly air flow in place.
As mentioned above, severe weather is possible Wednesday afternoon and evening as vigorous upper level energy accompanies the surface wave scooting across the lower OHV. This will warrant our attention over the upcoming 48 hours and will likely lead to the Storm Prediction Center expanding the current Slight Risk further northwest with future updates.
Fingers are still crossed for briefly drier conditions Friday before we reload the moisture with a persistent southwesterly air flow this weekend. This will promote additional concerns for heavy rainfall over the weekend.
At times, this moist southwest flow will help precipitable water values exceed 2″. Needless to say, concern will remain very high for additional flooding problems over the weekend into early next week.
Widespread additional rainfall of 2.5″ to 3.5″ is a good bet with locally heavier amounts over the upcoming week.
More on the long range pattern into the Weeks 3/4 period tomorrow!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/17/only-going-to-get-worse-before-it-gets-better/
Jun 17
VIDEO: A New Week; Same Ole Weather Pattern. Discussing The Pattern Evolution Into July…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/17/video-a-new-week-same-ole-weather-pattern-discussing-the-pattern-evolution-into-july/
Jun 16
VIDEO: A Very Wet Week Is On Deck; Early July Thoughts…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/16/video-a-very-wet-week-is-on-deck-early-july-thoughts/
Jun 15
VIDEO: Classic Pattern For A Significant Flood Event…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/15/video-classic-pattern-for-a-significant-flood-event/
Jun 14
Friday Evening All-Access Video Update: A Wet, Stormy Weekend Awaits…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/14/friday-evening-all-access-video-update-a-wet-stormy-weekend-awaits/
Jun 14
Fall-Like Conditions Set To Be Replaced By Periods Of Heavy Rain…
Temperatures are in the 40s area-wide this morning across central Indiana. Speaking of the 40s, they extend all the way south into the north Georgia mountains as we start our Friday. (Hard to believe for mid June). Widespread below normal temperatures continue to dominate the eastern portion of the country.
High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and help feature dry conditions with plentiful sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Highs today will top out in the middle 70s after the crisp start to the day.
Unfortunately, the cool, dry conditions will quickly give way to an increasingly moist airmass overnight into Saturday morning and rain will follow. The reason? We’ll be on the backside of the area of high pressure with a southwest flow aloft helping transport moisture northeast into the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a series of warm fronts will pass over the weekend, featuring periods of more concentrated storms and associated heavy rainfall. Finally, a cold front will push south Sunday into Monday before stalling out just south of our area Tuesday.
While this may provide a briefly drier period Tuesday, we’ll have to contend with periods of heavy rain and storms before hand. More specific around timing, we think rain may begin as early as 11p to midnight this evening before becoming more widespread and heavier Saturday morning. We’d suggest having a Plan B for outdoor activities this weekend as more time than not, it’ll likely be raining across central Indiana.
As mentioned earlier, we’ll replace the cool, dry air mass with more of a tropical feel this weekend and at times precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 2″. This raises our confidence in the potential and likelihood of heavy rainfall.
Widespread 1″ to 2″ rainfall totals can be expected across central Indiana this weekend, with locally heavier amounts. After a briefly drier period Tuesday, rain will return by the middle of next week. Unfortunately, widespread 7-day totals (ending Thursday night) will likely be in the 2.5″ to 3.5″ range across central Indiana…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/14/fall-like-conditions-set-to-be-replaced-by-periods-of-heavy-rain/