Updated 04.27.23 @ 2:07a

May will open with a continuation of unseasonably chilly weather. We’re even looking at the potential of an additional frost threat early next week.

But there are changes in the offing just beyond the 10th, or so. The NAO trends neutral.

And the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is heading towards the balmy (for May standards) Phase 6.

While there will be some questions with respect to the longevity of the warm-up, we should see a notable flip in the pattern just beyond the first 1/3 of the month, including much warmer weather across our neck of the woods and a good chunk of the east as a whole.

I would anticipate models to trend warmer in that Weeks 2-3 timeframe over the course of the next couple of days.