Category: NAM Model

Old Man Winter Isn’t Finished

Come this afternoon it’ll be tough to believe we were in the 70s over the weekend!  A cold front is moving through central Indiana this morning and resulting in showers.  Rain will continue in an off-and-on fashion today, becoming a bit more organized yet again later this afternoon and evening.  This will be in response to a wave of low pressure developing to our east, along the pressing strong cold front.

A look at the forecast simulated radar at 7pm this evening:

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MUCH colder air will pour into the region today, complete with gusty northwest winds.  In fact, we’ll be in the 40s just after the lunchtime hour and the free-fall will continue.  30s arrive this evening and rain will begin to transition to wet snow.  Not all will see accumulation tonight, but a slushy accumulation of around half an inch will be possible where heavier snow persists.

A look at the forecast simulated radar towards 11pm-12am:

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Temperatures will crash into the 20s by Tuesday morning.  I saw many folks at Lowes buying flowers yesterday…hopefully those folks aren’t planning on planting until later…

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Tuesday will feature clearing skies, albeit unseasonably cold conditions.  We’ll remain in the 30s most of Tuesday, struggling to make it much above 40 by afternoon, along with a chilly northwest wind in place.  Lows Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning will drop into the lower to middle 20s.

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The Weekend Is Here!

After a few clouds this morning, we’re looking at increasing sunshine as we progress through the day.  Simulated satellite shows this well.

7am forecast satellite

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2pm forecast satellite

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Thankfully, this is a sign of things to come and a very nice (and warm) weekend is on tap!

High pressure will build in through the day, helping skies turn increasingly sunny.  A north breeze will keep temperatures cooler today than yesterday’s official downtown high of 74.

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Most of Saturday will be dry and feature partly cloudy skies, but clouds will develop and a widely scattered shower will be possible during the afternoon and evening as moisture begins to increase.  Most will stay dry Saturday, however.

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Sunday will be a windy and warm day, but with partly cloudy and dry conditions for the better part of the day.  Heavier rain and strong storms will develop to our west Sunday, but it’s really not until Sunday night into Monday when our immediate region will deal with this rainy and stormy weather.

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  • Friday: Increasing sunshine; 65
  • Saturday: Partly cloudy; widely scattered PM shower; 43/ 71
  • Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy; developing nighttime rain/storms; 59/ 73

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Saturday Morning Thoughts…

Good morning and happy Saturday!  A weak weather system will move through the region and produce a couple of light showers this afternoon, but won’t be a big deal.  Rain will end as a couple of snow flakes.  Overall precipitation totals look less and less impressive with each model run, which wasn’t impressive to begin with.  Needless to say, don’t be concerned by any sort of significant rain or snow today.

Latest simulated radar off the NAM and HRRR shows the band of light precipitation pushing through the state this afternoon.

hrrr_ref_indy_12nam_ptype_slp_mc_7

While we’ll have a brief “set back” in the temperature department this weekend, early next week continues to look downright mild and very spring like.  Note our region flirting with 60s.  Impressively, a budding area of 70-degree warmth is expanding to our west.

nam_t2m_max_mc_22

Details remain quite sketchy in regards to nailing down the storm the middle of next week with any sort of confidence.  While we’ll continue to sort through the data and gain a better understanding of things over the weekend, we’re confident on a colder regime returning by the middle of next week.  Note the trough per the GFS ensembles returning to the east.  Much more later!

gefs_z500anom_nh_21

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Light Accumulating Snow Targets Areas Just North Of Indianapolis

Latest high resolution data overnight suggests we focus our attention from Indianapolis and points north for tonight’s light snow event.  Before that, be sure to get out today and enjoy the sunshine and one last day of relative warmth as highs zoom close to 50 for many throughout central Indiana on a gusty southwest wind this afternoon.

Light rain moves in this evening- initially around 6-7 for north-central Indiana, but may not reach the city, itself, until mid to late evening (more like 8 to 9 o’clock).  Rain will then mix with and change to snow (from north to south) during the overnight.  Our official accumulation idea looks very much like the latest high resolution NAM model.

hires_snow_acc_indy_11

Specific snowfall forecasts from a few select locations for tonight into early Sunday:

  • Indianapolis: 0.50-1″
  • Northern ‘burbs (Zionsville, Carmel, Westfield): 1″-1.5″
  • Lafayette: 2-3″

In other words, this isn’t anticipated to be a huge snow event by any means.  That said, we’ll keep a close eye on things as we fine tune the timing between the arrival of the cold air and departure of precipitation tonight.  We’ll fine tune later this evening if needed.

Enjoy your Saturday!

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Early 0z Runs Trending More Icy Vs. Snowy…

Quick post tonight just to alert you that early model runs off the 0z suite of data suggests less of   a snow threat and more of freezing rain/ sleet…

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